Cowboys Coaches Watch Thread...

Chocolate Lab

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When is this year's Division Title parade?
 

Smitty

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Praise Garrett for 3 divisional round appearances. Fine.

Wonder if we should revise how underappreciated Danny White is with 3 NFCC appearances and a single play or two from an SB

Nope. We shouldn’t.
Who is praising it? I've been literally all over the board saying that it might be time to go get an upgrade, a guy like Lincoln Riley.

But some people act like there is no difference between getting to the divisional round and finishing 8-8 or 6-10.

I get it. We want the hardware. No one celebrates division titles. But the point being missed is that we've been in three close division round games, all one possession losses. It's close. A lucky bounce or timely sack or something and we are moving on, in each of these games.

So unless you are relatively certain that you're gonna get better at coach, a blind firing is stupid -- you'd be throwing away a pretty good chance at being in the divisional round again, where anything can happen -- versus a complete unknown. And no, it's not as easy to replicate what Garrett has done with any old Todd Bowles or John Fox or Mike McCoy.

No one is praising getting stuck at the divisional round. But getting further is within striking distance. So either go get Lincoln Riley or an equivalent, or keep Garrett and upgrade the OC. Don't tear down the entire staff and start over with an unknown at HC.... or worse, a retread.
 

L.T. Fan

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Who is praising it? I've been literally all over the board saying that it might be time to go get an upgrade, a guy like Lincoln Riley.

But some people act like there is no difference between getting to the divisional round and finishing 8-8 or 6-10.

I get it. We want the hardware. No one celebrates division titles. But the point being missed is that we've been in three close division round games, all one possession losses. It's close. A lucky bounce or timely sack or something and we are moving on, in each of these games.

So unless you are relatively certain that you're gonna get better at coach, a blind firing is stupid -- you'd be throwing away a pretty good chance at being in the divisional round again, where anything can happen -- versus a complete unknown. And no, it's not as easy to replicate what Garrett has done with any old Todd Bowles or John Fox or Mike McCoy.

No one is praising getting stuck at the divisional round. But getting further is within striking distance. So either go get Lincoln Riley or an equivalent, or keep Garrett and upgrade the OC. Don't tear down the entire staff and start over with an unknown at HC.... or worse, a retread.
That is the point I was trying to make earlier. There is no need to uproot the organization and have a complete makeover by firing the HC; OC, DC, QB coach , etc as some have advocated. The team has risen to playoff status so work on what is necessary to go further then determine what needs to be done and who needs to go.

personally I think an evaluation of the offense is the deficit area of the team. I think if it were more productive it would put the team on the next level.The QB position is struggling and the right decisions aren’t being made to move the ball into the end zone. That equates to a OC and possibly a QB re-evaluation. Now the next thing is there a replacement necessary or does there need to be an update to the system? I think it simply points to working on a system that produces more from the offense.
 

p1_

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It seems so clear to everyone that Linehan has to go. How anyone in the organization can't see it would be astounding. I think its in the works, we're just not privy to it yet.
 

Hoffa

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No, it is patently incorrect to say, “He can get us a sniff of the playoffs every few years if the stars align.”

It is far more accurate to say we are a consistent divisional round playoff contender except when we lose an absolutely vital player for a large amount of time.


You don’t fear the unknown because you have an incorrect presumption of what we’d be throwing away, which you feel is nothing.

But that is wrong. We have won the division 3 times in the last 5 tries and it would be 4/5 if Romo stayed healthy, and 5/5 playoffs at least if Elliott wasn’t wrongfully suspended.

Now, is he the guy to get us over the hump? Maybe not. But our level of success is far more than you are making it seem, and three times we have essentially been a single play or two away from the NFCC.

Thats the kind of situation where you target a specific upgrade, not gamble on a retread or a lesser quality coaching prospect.
Right. So like I said -- when the stars align, everything falls into place, and we don't get battered by injuries while everyone else around us does, then yeah, we can get a sniff.

Look, teams lose important guys to injury every year. I don't like to play the "what if" game. It would have taken 10-6 to reach the playoffs last year, and we were only 6-4 with Zeke (and that's counting the meaningless 6-0 Week 17 win over an Eagles team that wasn't even trying), so there's no guarantee we make the playoffs if he plays all 16. Additionally, we had only one winning season in the last four prior to Romo's 2015 injury. So, no guarantee we are able to recapture 2014, even with a healthy Romo. Could have just as easily been another 8-8.

Outside of playing "what if" - we do know sure that Garrett had four full seasons of prime Tony Romo and got one bite of the playoff apple. That's a fucking travesty.

I'm not going to start popping Champagne over three division titles. Making the playoffs really isn't the herculean task the Cowboys have made it look like during Garrett's tenure. The top organizations are there just about every year, and even the guys who are regular fixtures in the playoffs, like Mike Tomlin, are still in danger of getting run out of town. Nobody in the league has been on as long a leash as Jason Garrett.

Now, whether through front office skill of guys like McClay, or just sheer dumb luck, we've actually assembled a really quality roster that can compete man-for-man with just about anyone in the NFL. I genuinely don't know how much input Garrett does or does or does not have in the personnel currently on this team, so I won't speculate on that, but suffice to say that while I generally think we have the talent on the depth chart to go toe-to-toe with anyone in the NFL, it is on the sideline where we continue to fall short.

So, yeah, maybe this is as far as he can get us. Or maybe, now that the training wheels are off, this is as far as the organization can carry him. The sheer talent of the guys on this roster can drag him to this point, but when it comes down to a chess match with the best coaches in the league, he's going to fall short.

So what are you worried about? Again, your retread concerns are unfounded. That's not Jerry's modus operandi, and we're not the Dolphins or the Jets.
 

Chocolate Lab

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It's funny to act line we could hire someone new and immediately go 5-11. This team is carried by its talent. Unless we lose our OL, Zeke, Cooper, Tank, Jaylon, and LVE, we aren't falling off a cliff. No way in hell is Garrett worth 4 or 5 wins. He's probably not worth even one.
 

data

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Who is praising it? I've been literally all over the board saying that it might be time to go get an upgrade, a guy like Lincoln Riley.

But some people act like there is no difference between getting to the divisional round and finishing 8-8 or 6-10.

I get it. We want the hardware. No one celebrates division titles. But the point being missed is that we've been in three close division round games, all one possession losses. It's close. A lucky bounce or timely sack or something and we are moving on, in each of these games.

So unless you are relatively certain that you're gonna get better at coach, a blind firing is stupid -- you'd be throwing away a pretty good chance at being in the divisional round again, where anything can happen -- versus a complete unknown. And no, it's not as easy to replicate what Garrett has done with any old Todd Bowles or John Fox or Mike McCoy.

No one is praising getting stuck at the divisional round. But getting further is within striking distance. So either go get Lincoln Riley or an equivalent, or keep Garrett and upgrade the OC. Don't tear down the entire staff and start over with an unknown at HC.... or worse, a retread.
Due to Jerruh, there’s no relatively certain Hc upgrade out there. We’re gonna have to take a chance.

Your threshold for holding hope that Garrett makes the next-level tweak is higher than most here.

so, when would your threshold run out before taking a chance? How many more consecutive divisional record eliminations would we have to endure before you believe it’s time to take a chance at an unproven HC commodity?

As an aside, John Fox has taken two teams to the Championship Game. As for his most recent stint with the Bears, was it Nagy that took them to this year’s division title or would this breakthrough have happened had they given Fox another year (his 4th)?

Jimmy Johnson was a relative certainty for the Dolphins and then wasn’t. Belichick is a retread that only had one winning season out of five with Cleveland.
 

Cowboysrock55

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A lucky bounce or timely sack or something and we are moving on, in each of these games.
Not to defend Garrett but the part that makes me really sick thinking about this is that one penalty that goes our way or not against us could do that as well. One holding call against the Rams offensive line. Or a not call on the Byron Jones penalty and suddenly that may have been a different game as well.
 

NoDak

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It's funny to act line we could hire someone new and immediately go 5-11. This team is carried by its talent. Unless we lose our OL, Zeke, Cooper, Tank, Jaylon, and LVE, we aren't falling off a cliff. No way in hell is Garrett worth 4 or 5 wins. He's probably not worth even one.
Yeah. I wonder if Dave Campo would't do just as well in Garrett's position as 'walk around' coach. People can say what they want about the Poodle, but he was given absolute SHIT for a team. But even as bad as they were, they always played hard for him. I have little doubt he could lead this much more talented team to the playoffs here and there, then shit all over himself when the spotlight shines brighter on coaching in the playoffs. Just like Jason Garrett.

Also, maybe somebody could refresh my memory, but I don't remember Campo absolutely botching ingame time management and situations like Garrett is well known for.
 

lostxn

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Also, maybe somebody could refresh my memory, but I don't remember Campo absolutely botching ingame time management and situations like Garrett is well known for.
No, he did a lot of stupid shit. Not going for 2 at the right time, untimely TOs, not pulling star players out of blowouts...
 

Smitty

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Right. So like I said -- when the stars align, everything falls into place, and we don't get battered by injuries while everyone else around us does, then yeah, we can get a sniff.
Yeah, no, it's not like you said at all. It's just as false when you repeated it as the first time you said it. Basically a lie.

Most teams who lose their starting QBs for the entire season -- especially those without 27 year old former Pro Bowl QBs in reserve -- miss the playoffs.

Did the stars align this year? Because by my count, our star TE retired just before the draft, our star all-pro center missed the entire year with a rare disease, our starting DT went nuts and didn't show up all year, and we had no capable WR on the roster until week 8. And we still won the division and made the playoffs and won a round.

Stars align. :lol

Look, teams lose important guys to injury every year.
Again with the blatant false equivalence. Yeah, teams lose important guys to injury. Do they lose their starting QBs for 13 games? And of those, how many make the playoffs? And of those, how many have 27 year old former Pro Bowlers as their backups? You have stats on that? I doubt it.

I don't like to play the "what if" game. It would have taken 10-6 to reach the playoffs last year, and we were only 6-4 with Zeke (and that's counting the meaningless 6-0 Week 17 win over an Eagles team that wasn't even trying), so there's no guarantee we make the playoffs if he plays all 16. Additionally, we had only one winning season in the last four prior to Romo's 2015 injury. So, no guarantee we are able to recapture 2014, even with a healthy Romo. Could have just as easily been another 8-8.

Outside of playing "what if" - we do know sure that Garrett had four full seasons of prime Tony Romo and got one bite of the playoff apple. That's a fucking travesty.
Yeah, it's a travesty, it's also ancient history and I already addressed it.

Since then, he's won the division 3 times in 5 years, and reached the divisional round of the playoffs each time and played a very close, down to the wire game. The other two times, he had lost his starting QB for the season, and then barely missed the playoffs when his All Pro RB was wrongfully suspended for 6 games. THAT IS WHY HE IS HERE. The 8-8's are virtually irrelevant at this point.

You guys are trying to build some sort of case and make those three 8-8 seasons part of the referendum against him -- "No one coaches 8 seasons with only 3 playoff appearances and keeps their job!" -- but it's so laughably transparent why you have to paint the numbers that way.... because that's the only way the numbers look bad.

Yes, it is true, most coaches who get relatively this far into their coaching careers with this relative lack of post season success get fired.

But Garrett wasn't fired. So that ship of firing him for three straight 8-8 seasons has sailed. Get over it.

Evaluating him now based on what happened in 2011-12-13 is not only stupid, but it's also not how any owner in the league operates.

Instead, coaches, including Garrett, are being evaluated on where they are headed, not where they've been years ago, and the best predictor of where they are headed is RECENT history, not distant history. But every time you make the "3 playoff appearances in 8 seasons" argument, you are baking into the analysis EQUAL WEIGHT to his first three 8-8 seasons.

But they don't deserve that weight if you are evaluating how well you think he's gonna do in the future. The best projection of the near-future Cowboys with Garrett at the helm would probably be roughly what they have been since Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott arrived, and then factor in a plus or a minus to that based on future personnel moves, coaching staff adjustments, strength of opponents, and general intangibles.

And given that recent history (3 division crowns in the last 5 years, including 2 with Prescott), that is a very big "SOMETHING." It's not nothing.

I'm not going to start popping Champagne over three division titles.
No one is asking you to. Maybe you have a reading comprehension problem. I've been suggesting that I'm open to upgrading him if a quality candidate can be secured.

But what I am saying is, if you aren't acting like a petulant fan, you are forced to admit that being a play or two away from the Championship Game three times isn't something to scoff at. If your goal is to get as far as you can and hope to give yourself a chance that the ball bounces your way and maybe you can will yourself to a Super Bowl, then having a starting point of "Divisional Title 60% of the time" -- which is where we have been in the past half decade across two different QB/RB/WR regimes -- it's not a bad place to be.

There is a legitimate argument that if the goal is winning a Super Bowl, you may have better odds trying to tweak the status quo rather than rolling the dice on a new head coach. Most new head coaches do not obtain three divisional championships ever, let alone in 5 years.

Now, there's also a legitimate argument -- and this is the LEGITIMATE criticism of Garrett, as opposed to the crybaby part about how he should have been fired after going 8-8 three times but wasn't, that argument is stupid and pointless -- there is a LEGITIMATE concern that Garrett has peaked at division titles and divisional playoff round appearances. That's the legitimate, credible concern. That Garrett has established a pattern of building a team that, when it has it's starting QB, is able to make the playoffs and/or win the division approaching 80% of the time, but that he just can't elevate them over the hump.

That's a legit concern.

But a blind firing is just as likely a downgrade as an upgrade to this scenario, so you'd be stupid to do it.

A targeted replacement is the only approach that makes sense.

Making the playoffs really isn't the herculean task the Cowboys have made it look like during Garrett's tenure.
Not too herculean winning the division three out of the last 5 years. He's clearly onto something.

The top organizations are there just about every year
The ones with the elitist of the elite QBs, for the most part.

Now, whether through front office skill of guys like McClay, or just sheer dumb luck, we've actually assembled a really quality roster that can compete man-for-man with just about anyone in the NFL. I genuinely don't know how much input Garrett does or does or does not have in the personnel currently on this team, so I won't speculate on that, but suffice to say that while I generally think we have the talent on the depth chart to go toe-to-toe with anyone in the NFL, it is on the sideline where we continue to fall short.
You are overselling our talent. We came into the year with the worst receiving corps in the league, bar none, and a bottom 15 QB.

That does not go "toe to toe" with any team in the NFL.

This year was absolutely not a "fall short," coaching year. Laughable sentiment.

He couldn't coach this roster over the top, sure. Maybe there are some who could.

But not most.
 

Smitty

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Due to Jerruh, there’s no relatively certain Hc upgrade out there. We’re gonna have to take a chance.

Your threshold for holding hope that Garrett makes the next-level tweak is higher than most here.

so, when would your threshold run out before taking a chance? How many more consecutive divisional record eliminations would we have to endure before you believe it’s time to take a chance at an unproven HC commodity?

As an aside, John Fox has taken two teams to the Championship Game. As for his most recent stint with the Bears, was it Nagy that took them to this year’s division title or would this breakthrough have happened had they given Fox another year (his 4th)?

Jimmy Johnson was a relative certainty for the Dolphins and then wasn’t. Belichick is a retread that only had one winning season out of five with Cleveland.
It depends on a lot of things. First and foremost, if I'm Jerry Jones, I simply do not "take a chance." I do not fire Garrett with results like this without having a replacement lined up. If Garrett has a healthy team next year and goes 6-10, then that's another matter. Now I consider a firing then looking for replacement.

I can't put numerical odds on things, but I proposed my list of suggested offensive coordinators. While I'm open to replacement, for now, I lean trying one more time with a new OC to see if that can get it in the right direction. I know DeFillipo just signed with Jacksonville, but if we were to get someone else on that list or someone else I felt good about, I'd say there is a "more likely than not" chance that the offense has demonstrated improvement next year. Dak would be another year older. Another year working with Cooper. Hopefully some more targets added in free agency and the draft. Frederick back. And then whatever wrinkles the new OC can bring.

I'd say that would make me feel pretty positive about fielding a top 10-15 offense. If I can return a top 10 defense (and I'd be adding Earl Thomas to it, probably), I think I'd certainly be excited to go into next year with Garrett as the HC.

.............

Now, if he loses in the WC round or the divisional round again, after all those changes, I begin to think much harder about making a change. This is why I'm against a 5 year extension right now. If he flames out again, with those changes, and with Dak and Zeke and Cooper really starting to hit their primes, then I have to say, ok, I may need someone else.

At that point, I'd be affirmatively calling Lincoln Riley. Frankly, that would be my plan A and plan B for next year, without knowing who else might shake free. I'd also try to see if I can get Payton from New Orleans if Brees was to be retiring this year or next. Failing to get a real high end coach, I probably return Garrett again for 2020, but now I am on the lookout to replace him just as soon as I can shake someone like that loose and get a verbal commitment. And you don't know who else crops up in that time. No one knew the name Lincoln Riley around here as an NFL coach 2-3 years ago.

But yeah, pretty much none of the new head coaches hired this year would I feel particularly great about. So I'm not excited to do that. I'd rather import an OC and have a sit down with Garrett and tell him to find an OC with some new wrinkles.
 

DLK150

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If Jerry said that, he's probably still living in the days when Garrett was still a hot up and coming OC with future HC potential. I'm pretty sure every team in the league is aware of his track record and the only teams I can think of that might be interested are the perennial dregs of the league. Another start like 2018 and he should be shown the door without hesitation but that won't happen if he's extended.

Second longest tenured HC in team history after Landry. :picard
 

jsmith6919

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Cotton

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