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By Bob Sturm 16m ago
In the very end, one team stands atop the football world.
But for one team to ascend, 31 must be humbled along the way. The Cowboys defeated the odds a few different times to delay their day until January 12[SUP]th[/SUP], but it did, in fact, arrive.
The Cowboys fell to the Los Angeles Rams in the divisional round of the NFC Playoffs, 30-22, in the historic LA Coliseum in a way that will not sit well with anyone who pulls for this organization. It was also rather uncharacteristic to how they have played for the better part of two-and-a-half months. They were kicked in the rear repeatedly and convincingly.
In every sport’s playoffs — if you don’t go meekly early — you eventually get thrown into the ring with a team that is rested and probably better. There are certainly enough cases of the tired and lesser side winning to know that this is not a hopeless cause, but this trip to Southern California was clearly not that. This was a severe lesson in physical football being learned by a team that had taught the same class just seven days prior.
After showing Seattle who owned the trenches in the wildcard round, the Cowboys were not only manhandled in this matchup, but outgained on the ground by a larger margin than anyone could think possible. After all, they were playing a team that had been run on all season long. It appears the Rams were tired of hearing about that and decided to make an example of the Cowboys, holding Ezekiel Elliott to one of the lowest outputs of his career. 20 carries for 47 yards isn’t a line you see very often, but the man very rarely had any room to run. He had one carry for 15 yards and one catch for 12, but otherwise, his biggest moments of the game were some outstanding blitz pickups that helped preserve the Cowboys’ passing opportunities – including the touchdown to Amari Cooper on the first drive of the game. The Rams closed nearly ever door Zeke tried to open on the ground, including a stunning 10 runs where Elliott had two yards or less (not counting the one-yard touchdown), several of which were stuffed runs and tackles for loss. With the exception of his nine carries for eight yards in Denver last season in Week 2 (which oddly also featured a monster day from CJ Anderson, as you may recall), this was probably the least effective the Cowboys running game has been with Elliott since he was drafted. Unfortunately, that performance came in the biggest spot.
(Photo by Robert Hanashiro / USA TODAY Sports)
That alone would be hard enough to try to overcome, but what happened on the other side of the ball made the situation almost impossible.
We believe Dallas has an outstanding defense because most weeks they have proven to be just that. Where they stand amongst the very best defenses is certainly a conversation worth having, but without takeaways being a strength, it has been difficult for me to suggest with a clear conscience that they belong at the very top. That said, their calling card is that nobody runs on them. They are a wall, and many teams that butter their bread by running have failed to run on the Dallas front. The defensive line is too destructive and the linebacker group features two of the top young tacklers in the business. Seattle, New Orleans and so many others have been used to demonstrate the attacking and non-stop movement of the Cowboys defense. It hasn’t been a fluke.
But that did not matter in Los Angeles. The Rams ran the ball behind an offensive line that pushed the Cowboys back repeatedly. They opened holes that you could drive a truck through. The fine Dallas linebackers were not attacking into the hole as they have all year, but rather back-pedaling to try to navigate around untouched guards who had reached the second level with no resistance. This was a full-fledged collapse of what we had largely believed was the strength of the entire operation.
The Rams ran for a ridiculous 273 yards on an equally ridiculous 48 carries. Yes, the Dallas offense was supposed to control the ball and play-keep away, but the defense allowed multiple first downs on all six Rams drives into the middle of the third quarter. All six of those drives ended in points, except for the long field goal attempt at the end of the half. In other words, as the Rams put up drives of 68, 70, 76, 64, 29, and 48 to take a 23-7 lead – with barely a memorable pass anywhere to be found – the Cowboys were beaten in the most elementary way possible; with run after run after run.
Yet, to call it elementary is unfair to the genius scheme of Sean McVay and these formidable Rams. It will shock nobody if they win two more games and lift a Lombardi Trophy in Atlanta, because they can beat you in so many ways. Their running game is definitely not based on lining up and stuffing the ball down your throat, but rather a number of visual tricks and horizontal attacks to the defense that spreads them out, slows them down, and seems to cause as much mental stress as any ground game in memory. They will run a receiver across repeatedly to give the linebackers and contain-men something to think about. Yet, it is all done so often that the one time you don’t pay it any mind is when they really do use a jet or fly sweep and outflank you to the corner. If they can cause a false step by your second level players — as they do over and over — then they can use a simple middle run and see a lane that allows the runner to go untouched to the safeties. And boy, did the safeties get plenty of work all night long.
The Rams achieved an unreal success rate of 69% on running plays with their running backs or wide receivers (29 of 42). This just one week after the Seahawks had gone 6 for 21 (29%) against the same defense.
(Photo by Robert Hanashiro / USA TODAY Sports)
The damage was as severe as you might expect from a rushing advantage of 273-50. The Cowboys had not been outgained on the ground by over 200 yards since Dave Campo’s first year as head coach. To call that a ridiculous differential is an all-time understatement. Those margins are not easily made up unless there are some significant and spectacular plays to lessen the margin. On Friday, we certainly prepared the readers for the special qualities of the Rams offense that has so many ways to find a victory – although I will be the first to admit that CJ Anderson was not very high on my list of potential heroes. Here is how we laid out the road to a Cowboys victory:
- The defense was going to need to generate five “big plays” in the forms of sacks or takeaways. A quick scan of the boxscore shows that there were zero sacks and zero takeaways. The Cowboys could not stop the Rams from gashing them to the tune of 6.2 yards per carry, hardly touched the quarterback all night long, and did not force a turnover. In other words, the final taste in your mouth about the 2018 defense will likely stain a very impressive year. The defense went from allowing 18.5 points per game in the first 13 weeks of the season to allowing 25.5 in the final six. That is basically the difference between the league’s fifth-best defense and its 25th.
- The Dallas offense would have to outpace its normal road performance of 17.5 points per game. To do so, they would need to win on third down and control the clock on the ground. We have already detailed the latter going poorly, but the former was also a disaster as the Cowboys’ third-down offense picked a bad night to have its worst night of the season (1 of 10). The ineffective running game forced them into plenty of third-and-long situations, and the passing game was betrayed by some erratic throws from Dak Prescott for much of the second and third quarters. He had a fine passing line, but to win a game in which you are mauled on both sides of the ball, the Cowboys needed a perfect night from Prescott. He was far from perfect.
We also don’t know how things go differently if the Cowboys can just hold the point of attack on that 4th-and-1 to start the fourth quarter. We also don’t know how things go differently if Scott Linehan is wise enough to realize his line had no chance to hold that point of attack, rather than trying the middle dive for Zeke in that most important snap of the game. Down only 23-15, the Cowboys were still inexplicably in the game and at the edge of field goal range to start the fourth quarter. Their win probability was low, but they had survived the worst of the onslaught and were right there. But, as he has so often, Scott Linehan ran right into a loaded front no matter how many times it is proven that Travis Frederick and Ron Leary are no longer here.
Playoff losses sting plenty. It is so darned difficult to reach this spot, and it can often take years just to get to the “final eight,” let alone beyond it. You would like to think that in that spot you would be able to name one part of the team that did well or even one player that had a top performance. Instead, I am rather hard pressed to do that. Nobody excelled in this game. You could definitely tell, as the players limped off the field looking battered and bruised, that they had given you what they had, but it was not nearly good enough. The Rams were simply at a different level, and that bye week they earned through playing well all year rather than for half of it might have created the margin.
Now, talk of change will be moved to the top of the discussion boards. I have certainly heard plenty about the Cowboys looking to shake up their offensive coaching staff. I would vote hard for that, as the deficiencies on that side of the ball have gone on long enough. They also have some personnel situations that need to be addressed before they return to Southern California for training camp. The front office will shift its focus to the draft and free agency as well as all of the contracts that need extending.
I said last week that I thought the 2018 Cowboys probably reached their ceiling. If you asked me in training camp what their maximum output would be, considering what they assembled and lost in the offseason, I would argue an NFC East title and a playoff win is probably all one could expect from this young group. Maybe they get hot and go beyond that, but an 11-win season is hard to achieve. These Cowboys probably reached their potential. If you think they are better than the Rams or Saints, we might be watching different games.
That doesn’t mean there wasn’t plenty to admire on this team. Many players have taken big steps forward, and the group looks poised for good things ahead. They are very young and very talented, as the benefits of strong drafting will continue to pay dividends.
Ending on a dud puts everyone in a bad mood, creating that Groundhog Day-esque feeling that a 23-year trip in the wilderness will never end. There is no guarantee these guys will change that, but we saw signs that they are making some strides worthy of optimism, even if they require patience.
171 days earlier, training camp began. Ironically, the Cowboys’ journey began just 65 miles up the road from where it all ended. Many even used the same airport to get to the birth and the death of the 2018 Cowboys in Southern California. This year’s journey provided some enjoyable stops along the way, but clearly, the end feels all too familiar.
A few weeks more than 10 years ago, I wrote the following paragraph after the final game at Texas Stadium. Fans have told me this makes them put bad endings into perspective, so maybe it will strike the proper chords for you this morning:
Just like the Cowboys, we now start the long offseason. How can 2019 be different? We’ll figure it all out in the months to come.