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By Ted Nguyen Jan 10, 2019
The Los Angeles Rams went through a rough patch in Weeks 14-15, when they lost two games in a row and their offense looked vulnerable. They finished the season on a two-game win streak, but they beat the Cardinals and 49ers, who combined for seven wins this season. We won’t know if the Rams’ offensive issues have been solved until they play an elite defensive unit.
Enter the Dallas Cowboys, who will travel to the Los Angeles Coliseum fresh off an impressive win against the Seattle Seahawks. Despite their flaws, the Cowboys present a nightmare matchup for the Rams. They have the ingredients to exploit many of the Rams’ weaknesses.
Dallas’ defense dominated Seattle’s top-ranked rushing attack, holding the Seahawks to 73 yards. The Rams finished third in rushing in the regular season. Without an effective rushing game, the Rams’ offense is thrown out of sorts. During their two-game losing streak, they rushed for a combined 134 yards. When they fall behind the chains, their play-action game becomes less effective and they are unable to consistently produce big plays in the passing game.
The Cowboys’ talented front seven has the ability to shut down the Rams’ run game. The Rams’ bread-and-butter run concept is the outside zone; they led the league in outside zone usage (called 218 times). It will be difficult to consistently run outside zone against the Cowboys’ second-level speed. Jaylon Smith and Leighton Vander Esch could be the fastest linebacking duo in the league. The Seahawks learned how difficult it is to run outside zone on them, as the duo continually beat blocks with their speed.
Here, the Seahawks run outside zone to the weak side. On first-and-10, the Cowboys expected a run from the predictable Seahawks’ offense and called a gap exchange to muddy up the Seahawks’ blocking scheme. The two interior defensive linemen shot backside gaps while Smith and Vander Esch filled the play side gaps.
The play side defensive end was demolished by the left tackle so Vander Esch’s ability to quickly flow to the play side and contain the play was key. Smith also beat the backside guard to fill the cutback lane. This was a textbook example of how to defend the outside zone from a linebacking perspective.
Sean McVay will use more motion and tempo to slow down the Cowboys linebackers but he’ll also have to be less predictable than the Seahawks were and call play actions to set up the run with the pass. If he falls into a predictable patten, the Cowboys are simply too talented up front to run the ball on efficiently.
The Rams’ second-most utilized concept is “DUO,” which is designed to get as many double teams at the point of attack as possible. It is a physical downhill play that is often described as “power” with a puller. In the clip below, the Seahawks attempted to run DUO at the Cowboys from a heavy formation with a sixth offensive lineman to the play side.
Cowboys defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli is also their defensive line coach and he has the unit playing at high level. They are extremely physical and fundamentally sound. In the clip above, the two defensive linemen on the play side, DeMarcus Lawrence (No. 90) and Maliek Collins (No. 96), blew up the play side to stonewall the Seahawks’ DUO concept.
The entire defensive line got off the ball with ideal pad level. Lawrence did an excellent job of using his hands to pull down and toss aside extra offensive tackle George Fant (No. 74). Collins played the double team perfectly by attacking the first blocker aggressively with low leverage. He penetrated instantly, which prevented the double team from the guard from getting to him. Lawrence chased the ball carrier inside and Collins cleaned up the tackle. If the Cowboys can hold up the point of attack like this against the Rams, they’ll win some key short yardage situations.
Playing defensive line is more intellectually demanding than the casual fan realizes. Defensive linemen have to read blocks in a split second while having to take on blocks from offensive linemen, who are trying to maul them. Marinelli’s defensive line plays fast and aggressive but consistently makes good reads and is rarely out of position.
Here, the Seahawks run a screen off outside zone action, which is a play the Rams utilized often in 2017. The play is designed to get linebackers to come up toward the line of scrimmage and then sprint back into their pass responsibilities when they see play action. Getting the linebackers to sprint backwards is supposed to create space for the screen to develop at the line of scrimmage and that’s exactly what happened in the clip above. The screen might have turned into an explosive play if it weren’t for the effort of defensive lineman Antwaun Woods (No. 99). Woods realized that he penetrated too easily and instead of chasing the bait and rushing the quarterback, he sat back and sniffed out the screen.
The Cowboys defense doesn’t get fooled easily, and part of the reason the Rams’ offense fell into a slump was because defenses caught onto their tendencies. According to Sports Info Solutions, before Week 15, the Rams ran the ball 60 percent of the time when they motioned, and when they didn’t motion, ran the ball only 33 percent of the time. McVay has since broke some tendencies in the final two weeks of the season but he’ll have to continue to do so against the Cowboys.
The Rams almost never run the ball from the shotgun. When they are in the gun, they will almost always pass. When linebackers see the Rams in shotgun, they can play a little deeper and drop back without having to worry about coming up for the run.
In Week 17 against the 49ers, McVay called a run from the gun but on third-and-22:
The play call was a trap play that actually had a chance to get close to picking up the first down. The Rams left defensive end Cassius Marsh (No. 54) unblocked in the hopes that he would aggressive rush the passer. If Marsh didn’t sniff the play out and tackle running back C.J. Anderson (No. 35) from behind, Anderson would have room to run and a convoy of blockers in front of him. Against the Cowboys, calling shotgun runs on early downs could be an effective strategy. McVay could give quarterback Jared Goff the option to audible into runs from the gun against favorable fronts.
Since secondary coach Kris Richard took over defensive play-calling duties for the Cowboys, they’ve mixed Marinelli’s Tampa 2 system with Richards’ Cover 3/Cover 1 coverages. They still play Tampa 2 (a form of Cover 2) usage but are now able to mix up their coverages and lock down in man coverage when they want to. Cornerbacks Byron Jones and Chidobe Awuzie are having phenomenal seasons and are suffocating on the outside.
On this play, the Cowboys are in Cover 1 (man to man with one free safety) and have every route well-covered. Wilson didn’t have many options but took a deep shot to Tyler Lockett. In the regular season, Wilson had a perfect quarterback rating when targeting Lockett, which speaks to how good of a deep threat Lockett is. Though Awuzie didn’t get his head around, he put his hand in between Lockett’s hands with perfect timing.
Jones and Awuzie will have the difficult task of containing the Rams’ best deep threat, Brandin Cooks. Cooks should see a few deep shots from the outside but McVay will likely move him inside at times like he did in Week 17:
The Cowboys corners don’t travel so Cooks would be matched up with Cowboys nickel corner Anthony Brown, which would be advantageous for the Rams.
Goff is surprisingly effective against Cover 1. According to Pro Football Focus, Goff averaged 10.3 yards per attempt (league high), had an adjusted completion percentage of 71.5 (12th), and a 112.4 passer rating (2nd) against Cover 1. Part of the reason he’s been so effective is because of the rub routes and crossing patterns the Rams use to get their receivers open against man coverage.
If the Cowboys can’t cover those concepts with man coverage, they’ll be forced to play more zone. They’ll likely play more Cover 2, which Goff is also effective against. Goff averaged 9.0 yards an attempt (T-5th), had an adjusted completion percentage of 88, and had a 94.7 passer rating (15th) against Cover 2.
On this play, the Rams ran a hitch/in combo, which is meant to high/low the “inside wall” defender in the Cover 2. The inside wall defender came up to play the hitch, which opened up the dig behind him. For the Rams to move the ball, Goff will have to hit tight window throws like this consistently. He’ll have to do it against immense pressure. Right tackle Rob Havenstein struggled in the second half of the season in pass protection. Marinelli will likely have Lawrence rush on Havenstein’s side, and if Havenstein doesn’t get help, it could end in disaster.
The Cowboys can pressure from the edge with Lawrence and inside with Tyrone Crawford. They have the ability to pressure Goff like the Eagles and Bears did in the regular season. Goff had his worst games of the season in those games. He’ll have to prove that he can play effectively against pressure for the Rams to advance.
On the other side of the ball, the Cowboys offense is good at what the Rams are worst at defending. Ezekiel Elliott is playing like the best back in the league right now. The Rams gave up a league-worst 5.1 yards per attempt so it’s difficult to see how they’ll defend Elliott. Though the Rams boast a star-studded defensive line with Aaron Donald, Ndamukong Suh and Michael Brockers, their linebacker play leaves a lot to be desired.
In the clip above, running back Alfred Morris gashed the Rams for 51 yards on a two-back outside zone concept. Weak side linebacker Mark Barron’s (No. 26) strength is supposed to be his speed but he couldn’t beat the guard to the point of attack and got washed out of the play. Cory Littleton (No. 58) got held by the fullback but he used poor technique in dipping his head and didn’t use his hands in an attempt to separate, which would have made the hold look even more obvious for the referee.
If the Rams had difficulty containing Morris, who was Elliott’s backup last year, then Elliott is going to give them nightmares.
Here, the Cowboys run DUO. Elliott’s job is to read the play side linebacker and react accordingly. Safety Bradley McDougald (No. 30) moved in the box into the linebacker position, so Elliott read McDougald. McDougald stepped up and Elliott bounced the play outside. He cut with such explosion that he beat two unblocked Seahawks defenders to the outside.
The Rams are going to have difficulty matching up with Amari Cooper. Rams defensive coordinator Wade Phillips will likely have their best cover corner Aqib Talib shadow Cooper like he did when Cooper faced the Rams as a member of the Raiders in Week 1. Cooper finished with only one catch but it wasn’t because he was shut down. He got wide open against Talib on numerous occasions but the ball didn’t find him for various reasons.
Here, Cooper was matched up with Talib in the slot. Cooper closed the distance on Talib before breaking his ankles with an in-and-out release. Derek Carr looked in the opposite direction and didn’t see Cooper running free to the right. Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott has made it a point to get Cooper targets and would be wise to do so against Talib.
The Cowboys’ strengths match up well with the Rams’ weaknesses. The Rams had a week off and will be playing at home but their defensive struggles all year and recent offensive slump are legitimate concerns. Vegas has the Rams as seven-point favorites but just looking at the matchups across the board, the Cowboys have a better shot of upsetting the Rams than people realize.
McVay is the X-factor. The young prodigy has had an extra week to add to his playbook and prepare for this game. There’s also a chance that he’s been holding back some wrinkles for the playoffs. He’s been lauded as one of the most brilliant coaches in the league with good reason, but he’ll have to do his best work in game-planning to counter some of the mismatches that his team will face with the talented Cowboys roster. [HR][/HR]
Damn good article, and now I am hyped as shit for Saturday. Full homer mode engaged.
