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By Bob Sturm Dec 24, 2018
In all sorts of ways, this was one of the Cowboys’ least-watchable wins in 2018. In all sorts of other ways, this was one of the most identifiable — and it somehow clinched a division title that considered a pretty lofty goal about four months back, much less seven weeks ago when the team was 3-5.
Both can be true, and by my recollection, both actually are.
This Cowboys team is far from perfect and their flaws remain frustrating. They could stand to upgrade certain portions of their roster and coaching staff without any real difficulty, it often seems.
Yet here they are.
They hear you. As much time as they spend on their social media these days — and by most accounts, it seems that just about all of them are looking at their phones with the same regularity as most of us — they can see that the NFL is less than convinced the Cowboys are the real deal. Which was seemingly obvious in many of their interviews last night where they talked about “the guys in this room” and what they believe they are capable of doing. The noise on the outside might spur them on, but in the end, it doesn’t matter.
Only the result truly matters.
For the ninth time in 15 games, the Dallas Cowboys were able to win. That puts them at a 60% win percentage, slightly lower than their 66% win percentage since the start of the 2016 season, a span during which they have now won 31 of their 47 regular-season games. For a little perspective on that number and win percentage, here is a full list of NFC teams that have won more games than the Cowboys over that stretch:
(EMPTY LIST)
That’s right. None. Nobody. In all of football, New England (37), Kansas City (33), and Pittsburgh (32) have more wins since the start of the “21-4” era than the 31-win Cowboys, but only the Saints can match the Cowboys’ win total over three seasons. Those, of course, are the first three seasons of Ezekiel Elliott and Dak Prescott. Prescott, about to become the first Cowboys quarterback ever to start every game for three consecutive seasons, trails only Tom Brady in QB wins over that stretch of time.
I am pretty sure those last few paragraphs are why many in that locker-room do not share your pessimistic appraisal of how good this team believes it is and can be.
They believe they are a team that wins two of every three games it plays, and they’ve earned the right to believe that by backing it up.
You may believe it would sure be nice if they occasionally looked like an elite offense, one with a great QB and an attack capable of scoring 31 points from time to time to deal with the best of the best.
They believe the object of the game is to beat the team across from them over 60 minutes once a week.
You might believe that you have seen enough of the coach and his staff, that their short-term success will only slow the long-term overhaul that would precede a return to the parades of your youth.
They believe that teams have won Super Bowls with a great defense and a “good enough” offense, and that maybe that can be them. Maybe as soon as this year.
You might burst into laughter.
Either way, they have just done something that hasn’t happened in the NFC East since 2006. (Perhaps ironically, the first year of the Tony Romo era.) That was the final year of a six-year span where the Philadelphia Eagles won this division five times. Yesterday, the Cowboys became divisional champions for the third time in a five year stretch (2014, 2016, 2018) a feat no other team has accomplished in the last 12 years.
Winning three divisions in five years doesn’t sound particularly difficult, but to find a Cowboys team that did something that lofty, you would have to go back to 1992-96 when the Triplets and their friends won the division five times straight. In fact, if you take the last three Cowboys division titles before this stretch, you would span 1998-2009; a stretch that is considerably longer than five years. In fact, Jason Garrett now has three division titles on his ledger; equal to Wade Phillips, Bill Parcells, Dave Campo, and Chan Gailey’s combined total.
Now, before sarcastic comments populate below, nobody is suggesting that the benchmark for excellence is winning a four-team division several times and then losing quickly in the wildcard round. But winning your division is the first major step in the proper direction. Further, if you keep winning your division, you are going to be in the mix — and if you stay in the mix long enough, your ship very likely will come in eventually.
The Cowboys beat Tampa Bay 27-20 yesterday in a game that mirrored much of 2018. Their offensive attack was not intimidating, but it definitely knows its identity. Dallas does not produce a ton, but they’re good at getting a lead and turning things over to a defense which constricts the life out of the game.
Between Randy Gregory and Jaylon Smith’s combined strip-sack-return for a touchdown and then the gift from Santa Winston in the third quarter that Gregory returned to the 4-yard line, the defense basically generated as much offense as the offense itself did. This sounds a lot like the recipes in Chicago and Baltimore, and those teams will join the Cowboys in the postseason while most likely winning their divisions, too. Of course, these teams are also constantly discussed as “beatable” and “overrated,” and will be candidates to be “one-and-done” come wildcard weekend, too.
But they will take part in the dance, and therefore have a chance that twenty teams watching on television would certainly love to have.
Much of Sunday’s game was frustrating as the offense sputtered along and allowed Tampa Bay to stay in the game. To be honest, aside from those two big plays — one that Tampa literally just dropped on the ground — the defense was on its heels quite a bit, too. In fact, the Buccaneers had seven drives end inside the Dallas 35-yard line. If they simply were to get points on each of those trips, they probably win the game. But, Tampa Bay’s calling card is to make mistakes and sabotage their own efforts. Those who wish the Cowboys offense was more prolific make bold claims and get even more angry about the lack of fantasy football points this ground-and-pound offense generates, but nobody would rather have a team that puts up 1,200 more yards but in doing so give the ball away 18 more times.
If you believe the Cowboys are frustratingly unproductive (they often are), try producing 80 more yards a game but giving the ball away multiple times — sometimes for a massive defensive touchdown — every single week. That formula cannot work. It will not work. And this is why every year a good way to find success in the NFL is simply to track turnovers. Not yards. Not highlight plays. Take care of the football and reap the rewards.
If you have a QB whose accuracy can frustrate, it is awfully important that his mind dictates his actions and makes good decisions. See: Prescott, Dak. For each of the times he misses a wide-open Blake Jarwin, he seldom misses him in traffic with a throw that ends up being intercepted. If he misses, yardage might suffer, but that ball usually hits the ground and it will simply mean that the punt team is going to come on the field to do its job. The difference between Prescott and many of his contemporaries is based on the fact that he is not throwing the “YOLO” balls. Is he too safe? Perhaps. Many say he is a check-down machine. Others say he is the QB who does a lot to help this team win two of every three games simply by not attempting a lot of the throws he is criticized for being unwilling to throw.
In other words, his most important jobs are to extend drives on third downs, make the simple plays and reads, and avoid damaging mistakes. That is why in the build-up to this game, it was frustrating to hear people discuss Winston and Prescott in similar tones. Sure, they both have plenty of room for improvement and both do not seem to compare with the league’s best. But this isn’t even a conversation.
One of them consistently makes mistakes that get you beat and the other simply does not. Winston has now started 53 games and has given the ball to the opponent via interceptions and fumbles a staggering 75 times. Prescott has now started 47 games and turned the ball over 38 times. Winston’s interceptions more than double Dak’s, 57-25 and his fumbles lost also out-produce Prescott’s, 18-13. The Cowboys are now 26-4 (87%) when Prescott’s passer rating is over 90. That isn’t an accident.
There is simply no comparison. Prescott consistently allows the Cowboys to play winning football, thus his career record of 31-16. Winston consistently puts the Bucs in a position to lose, like he did yesterday, and has a record of 21-32.
Now, there is more to it than QB play, no question. But flip the two players and nobody would ever suggest that someone with Winston’s judgment could complement this team’s winning formula. And yes, there is clearly a formula now for the Cowboys to win games. Control the ball, force opponents to play a long field, and unleash that defense to go out there and do their job.
And the while the defense doesn’t always play to the standard that they set in the New Orleans game, they do have a real knack for getting tougher the closer you get to paydirt. The defining moment of the season might be the goal-line stand against the Saints, but how many big plays have featured all 11 defenders flying to the ball to make a stop? The fact that we have stopped featuring paragraphs of praise for Demarcus Lawrence has nothing to do with his effort or results. Rather, it has been that at times, the exceptional play in the secondary or the linebacker group is starting to steal the attention. It’s also possible that Jaylon Smith is becoming the face of the defense. Seeing him make splash plays every single week is one thing, but being able to go on a 70-yard run just demonstrates his full revival into a play-maker who no longer needs qualifications. He is a legitimate play-making linebacker. And the Cowboys deserve some praise for their belief in him. The same goes for their faith in Randy Gregory. Over this last stretch, he has come on nicely and now sits second on the team with six sacks. Since the bye week, he leads the team with five sacks and has also contributed four tackles for loss. Gregory was left for dead by many on the outside, but the Cowboys stuck with him and are now benefiting from their patience.
I know I often say this, but style points cannot be redeemed for free coffee anywhere. This is a win-or-lose league that simply totals up your results and renders its judgement. It isn’t based on highlights or perfect moments. It is simply judged by sending two teams on to the field each week for three hours of physical confrontations that end with one grabbing (and sometimes eating, Jameis) that “W.” If you do that six times in seven weeks, you go on a surprising run that takes you from a 3-5 record to clinching the division before Christmas.
That, with all of its warts, is an accomplishment worth applauding. Yes, there is much to be done and plenty to clean up. But this team — one of the NFL’s youngest — has just won another division title. This is far from the dizzying heights that they desire and that you demand, but it is pretty darn impressive given where we sat two months ago.
Smile. Your team is pretty good. I’m not sure where that takes you in January, but it will definitely take you to January in a league where 20 of the 32 teams will shut off their lights in six days’ time.
