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By Bob Sturm Dec 12, 2018
Football is, as we know, a game of inches. Those inches decide games. Sometimes you can’t buy an inch and other times, fortune continues to smile on you.
The Cowboys defense is rolling. For yet another “showdown game,” they stood tall and stole most of the headlines. They allowed nothing on the ground, forced punt after punt, kept the Eagles in a state of panic, and after allowing the first third-down attempt of the game to create a first down, were perfect for the remainder.
And yet, there are absolutely scenarios in which all that wasn’t enough to win.
After locking down the Eagles all day long, Dallas needed just one more stop at the end of the game. Dak Prescott hit Amari Cooper for 75 yards in the fourth quarter, giving the team a seven-point lead. With one more stalwart defensive performance, the day is over and the division is won.
The Eagles missed on their first play, a long shot to Alshon Jeffery. But he was open for a long passing play that would have crossed midfield easily.
On the next snap, this happened:
4Q – 2:55 – 2nd and 10
Rookie tight end Dallas Goedert matched up against Jeff Heath. Goedert does a nice job of getting separation and making a play like any TE should do against a safety. The linebackers sit on the run and the play-action fake gets them, leaving just Heath and the single-high safety, Xavier Woods. Wentz puts the throw in there, Heath tries to save a big play but can’t drag Goedert down, and then Woods tries to light him up with a big hit and misses. Goedert’s helmet nearly flies off, which could have led to the mirror image of Jason Witten’s helmet-less run down the field in Philadelphia for a huge touchdown.
But as you know, the officials ruled that Goedert illegally pushed off — which he did not. Then, they made another, equally silly call on Randy Gregory on the very next play for roughing the QB… which led to this, a few snaps later:
4Q – 2:00 – 2nd and 1
This is another play-action fake, but this time Wentz throws a beautiful pass to Nelson Agholor, who blows right by Byron Jones. And while Woods is cheating to that sideline, he is nowhere close to getting to the ball in time. The Cowboys do the one thing they simply can’t do, and that is let a receiver get behind them. Agholor makes a beautiful effort to stay in bounds and while he doesn’t score, he sets up the game-tying touchdown.
Minutes later, DeMarcus Lawrence is called for another dodgy roughness penalty on the extra point, allowing Doug Pederson the chance to go for a two-point conversion to very possibly win a game his team had no business winning.
As we know now, he kept the extra point and the Eagles would never touch the ball again. 22 snaps later, the Cowboys would win the game and the Eagles media would wonder why the coach of their Super Bowl champions didn’t attempt to win the game on that two-point chance from the 1-yard line. We will never know how that might have turned out, but that was how close the Cowboys defense was to the equivalent of taking a lead into the ninth inning, only to blow the save.
For all the good that was done all day, the offense actually had to save the defense at the very end.
Of course, over the entirety of the afternoon, we would never point fingers at the defense. But that is the margin this time of year. You can hold down a great offense all day, but if the final drive ends up in your end zone, that very often constitutes the start of the offseason. They were able to survive the scare, of course, but when you hold the Eagles to five punts and a fumble on their first six drives and then allow four scores on the final five drives (albeit one was the two-yard drive in the third quarter), you take your win and move on.
But they weren’t far from those inches costing them this time.
The Cowboys have a number of great things going on with their defense and we will detail many of them here, but I have spent the morning looking at the two games against Carson Wentz and the Eagles offense. That unit is out of sync, but has many weapons that trouble a team when going right. The Cowboys have blitzed, but they try to do it in moderation and at unpredictable points. Early in the season, the Dallas blitzes came largely on third down — but honestly, they now mix it up so well that I am not seeing a big pattern.
But what we are seeing is a real difference in Wentz and the Eagles’ performance when the blitz is called. Here is Sunday’s breakdown. Notice the yards per play; the damage done was primarily against four rushers. The Cowboys got both of their sacks that way. But look at the Cowboys’ results when they brought five rushers. They allowed just one completion out of seven snaps for a passer rating of 42.
Now, notice the production of the two meetings against Wentz this year. Here are his numbers when the Cowboys don’t blitz:
Here are the numbers when they do blitz. Look at the difference in yards per play and the overall passer rating numbers that drop from 123 down to 68. That is the difference from the best passer in football (Drew Brees) to the very worst (Josh Rosen).
Again, the key with blitzing is to get the offense to waste plays and to end drives. You want highlight sacks for sure, but if their success rates are dropping from great to awful because your ambushes are working, you are onto something.
Here is the look we are seeing pretty often. For lack of a better term, the Cowboys are blitzing or threatening a blitz out of this overload look from the defensive line. It screws up the protection calls and it is something to look for because they have been doing it plenty.
Both defensive tackles are on the same side of the center, while nobody is between the wide DE and the opposite A-Gap. They can’t do this on running downs, but the more it becomes a passing look, the Cowboys will do this and either blitz from it, run stunts out of it, or just try to screw up the protection. To their credit, whether blitzing or bluffing, they are keeping these offenses off guard.
[h=3]WEEKLY DATA BOX – PHILADELPHIA[/h]
You are seldom going to hold a team to one third-down conversion and less than 23 minutes of possession. Add that to the sixth time this season the defense has held their opposition below 300 yards and you have a beautiful performance. The Cowboys looked like they ran out of gas late (or the Eagles finally got more comfortable), but it was by all accounts a pretty weird afternoon of football. The point is this defense has taken that Tennessee game and used it as motivation. During this winning streak the defense has not been perfect, but it’s darn close.
[h=3]CARSON WENTZ THROW CHART[/h]
As a general rule, Carson Wentz is one of the league’s brightest QB prospects. But, he did not have much on Sunday and is in a period of regression that has people freaking out a bit. This league will build you up quickly (he was voted as the No. 2 player in the NFL’s Top 100 this summer) and then panic just as quickly if you don’t live up to those lofty projections.
He looked uncomfortable, a tad panicked, and was unable to put the throws where he wanted. In other words, he looks like a professional QB in a hostile setting trying to do an impossible job.
SPLASH PLAYS – GAME 13
If anything has really taken off during this stretch of the season, I would nominate that the defensive tackle play has really been superb — and that is due to the combination of Maliek Collins, Tyrone Crawford, and run-down force Antwaun Woods. They have 35.5 splash plays combined, which is uncommonly great for this position group and pairs wonderfully with what Lawrence continues to accomplish — with a little help from Randy Gregory.
This is a formidable front.
SPLASH PLAYS – SEASON TOTALS
[h=3]SNAP COUNTS[/h]
I always say I will try to limit how long I make this thing, but then I keep seeing plays I want to show you and discuss. So, in addition to the two snaps above, here are 13 more. Let’s get to work.
[h=3]FILM STUDY[/h]
1Q – 10:04 – 3rd and 8
Here is the first Eagles third-and-long, and the Cowboys start messing with the overload alignment again. Then Randy Gregory gets home on Jason Peters and picks up another sack. I know he draws penalties, but he is also getting the edge and some of those recent penalties have been very dubious. I think 94 has actually become underrated. He is really athletic and seemingly improving by the minute.
1Q – 1:40 – 2nd and 7
This, of course, is a messed-up snap and exchange, but it shows the ferocity of 96-Collins in space. He is another young Cowboy who is about due for a contract. He is a very talented player who just needs to stay healthy, and we have seen the defensive line take another step forward with his availability. Dallas will have a tough decision to contend with when it comes time to pay Collins, but he can really do the job versus run and pass. He has a rare combination of strength and quickness and is a true dancing bear.
1Q – 1:08 – 3rd and 11
Here is another third and long, and another overload alignment from the front with a Jaylon Smith blitz attached through that weak side. But the protection is pretty good, and here is what a new wide receiver and quarterback often look like after a midseason trade: They just are a little off. That is all it takes in the NFL. Somehow Dak and Amari have adjusted to each other very quickly, but Wentz and Golden Tate are not seeing things the same way. This could be a huge play, but just ends up being a frustrating miss against Jourdan Lewis in the slot. Notice that on third and long the Cowboys switched Byron Jones onto Zack Ertz.
2Q – 8:48 – 3rd and 1
I’m not sure what the Eagles are thinking here, but this looks like a speed QB option to the short side against DeMarcus Lawrence. Lane Johnson is a great right tackle, but he isn’t beating Lawrence here. Jeff Heath plays the pitch perfectly, so Wentz has no place to go and Lawrence ends the drive right there. This is a great stop and confusing play-call, perhaps out of respect for the Cowboys linebackers right now. They don’t trust a simple run to the left there against Jaylon Smith and Leighton Vander Esch.
2Q – 0:59 – 1st and 10
This is a bad decision by Wentz. The Eagles are also poor in pass-protection, but Prescott would get roasted for taking this sack (and fumbling) on first down. Hit Sproles in the flat quickly, take a few yards and reload. Instead, Crawford barges through the left guard and blindsides Wentz, which knocks the ball free — and Collins gets to it for a massive takeaway. Look at those bodies get to the ball.
3Q – 13:40 – 3rd and 9
On this third and long, the Cowboys use an overload alignment on the defensive line, then blitz in behind it with a robber coming down to grab the slant if Wentz throws it. He doesn’t, but has guys in his face as he tries to get the ball out. This time, it is Maliek Collins and Lawrence again. But look at that pressure off the blitz. He has very little chance to find anything. The Cowboys have him spooked.
3Q – 7:07 – 3rd and 3
Philadelphia runs a pick play to free up Jeffery on third and short, but Chido Awuzie fights through and breaks up the pass for a splash play of his own. Also, Jeffery can sense that Jaylon is about to light him up so he bails out in one of several business decisions he made Sunday.
3Q – 1:19 – 2nd and 4
Here is Jeffery again and a second-down blitz from the Cowboys. Wentz can’t do much more here, but this is where Xavier Woods got the idea on that Goedert play later in the game. The broadcast also mentioned here that if Wentz waits another count he has Sproles on a wheel against DeMarcus Lawrence on this fire zone blitz which would probably go pretty well for Sproles.
3Q – 1:14 – 3rd and 4
This won’t be called a sack, but it is how the Cowboys get there with four and close off the escape hatches. Wentz just needs four yards, but Lawrence knows the plan — and nobody seems able to outrun him these days. He is playing at an amazing level and you see it every week. A high motor with great ability equals a superstar.
3Q – 0:29 – 4th and 3
This is quite a design — and one that puts Vander Esch in a real bind. If he goes over it, he might have a better chance, but it is a very tough play even with no pick play. Jeffery goes right at him and Sproles just needs three yards on the fourth-down play. Vander Esch is tough to out-quick, but Sproles did it a few times on this day. That guy is probably going to Canton and I am not sure you can defend this successfully, to be honest.
4Q – 12:19 – 3rd and 8
The Cowboys wisely get out of Cover-1 on this third and long, and basically look to be in Quarters — so they simply switch off the slant to Ertz. There is no pick play or rub route if you just sit in zone. The Eagles again look pretty confused by the coverage and Ertz seems to give up on the play. Brown does it right and might even have an interception if he is looking, but I also might be getting greedy.
4Q – 6:22 – 3rd and 6
This is a great play by Anthony Brown. The Cowboys run Cover-1 Robber with a blitz and Tate looks open. Ball placement might allow Brown back in, but Wentz probably senses the safety creeping down in front of Tate. Either way, it is another blitz that leaves the Eagles looking confused and a fine play by Brown to break it up and get off the field. You can definitely see the patterns here.
4Q – 4:42 – 1st and 10
This is a weird one to end on, but it is before those two plays up top. This is the one time that Wentz beat a blitz on Sunday and it takes a wonderful throw to Goedert against Jaylon Smith on that same over-route concept to attack a Cover 3.
Overall, the story is that the defense held up against Wentz and the Eagles’ weapons for two games, swept the season series, and effectively eliminated the Eagles from even a chance to defend their title. There are some inches in each game that went the Cowboys’ way, but many would say they were overdue to get some breaks. They played very well and earned their wins.
Now, on to Andrew Luck and the Colts. No rest for the weary.
By Bob Sturm Dec 12, 2018
Football is, as we know, a game of inches. Those inches decide games. Sometimes you can’t buy an inch and other times, fortune continues to smile on you.
The Cowboys defense is rolling. For yet another “showdown game,” they stood tall and stole most of the headlines. They allowed nothing on the ground, forced punt after punt, kept the Eagles in a state of panic, and after allowing the first third-down attempt of the game to create a first down, were perfect for the remainder.
And yet, there are absolutely scenarios in which all that wasn’t enough to win.
After locking down the Eagles all day long, Dallas needed just one more stop at the end of the game. Dak Prescott hit Amari Cooper for 75 yards in the fourth quarter, giving the team a seven-point lead. With one more stalwart defensive performance, the day is over and the division is won.
The Eagles missed on their first play, a long shot to Alshon Jeffery. But he was open for a long passing play that would have crossed midfield easily.
On the next snap, this happened:
4Q – 2:55 – 2nd and 10
Rookie tight end Dallas Goedert matched up against Jeff Heath. Goedert does a nice job of getting separation and making a play like any TE should do against a safety. The linebackers sit on the run and the play-action fake gets them, leaving just Heath and the single-high safety, Xavier Woods. Wentz puts the throw in there, Heath tries to save a big play but can’t drag Goedert down, and then Woods tries to light him up with a big hit and misses. Goedert’s helmet nearly flies off, which could have led to the mirror image of Jason Witten’s helmet-less run down the field in Philadelphia for a huge touchdown.
But as you know, the officials ruled that Goedert illegally pushed off — which he did not. Then, they made another, equally silly call on Randy Gregory on the very next play for roughing the QB… which led to this, a few snaps later:
4Q – 2:00 – 2nd and 1
This is another play-action fake, but this time Wentz throws a beautiful pass to Nelson Agholor, who blows right by Byron Jones. And while Woods is cheating to that sideline, he is nowhere close to getting to the ball in time. The Cowboys do the one thing they simply can’t do, and that is let a receiver get behind them. Agholor makes a beautiful effort to stay in bounds and while he doesn’t score, he sets up the game-tying touchdown.
Minutes later, DeMarcus Lawrence is called for another dodgy roughness penalty on the extra point, allowing Doug Pederson the chance to go for a two-point conversion to very possibly win a game his team had no business winning.
As we know now, he kept the extra point and the Eagles would never touch the ball again. 22 snaps later, the Cowboys would win the game and the Eagles media would wonder why the coach of their Super Bowl champions didn’t attempt to win the game on that two-point chance from the 1-yard line. We will never know how that might have turned out, but that was how close the Cowboys defense was to the equivalent of taking a lead into the ninth inning, only to blow the save.
For all the good that was done all day, the offense actually had to save the defense at the very end.
Of course, over the entirety of the afternoon, we would never point fingers at the defense. But that is the margin this time of year. You can hold down a great offense all day, but if the final drive ends up in your end zone, that very often constitutes the start of the offseason. They were able to survive the scare, of course, but when you hold the Eagles to five punts and a fumble on their first six drives and then allow four scores on the final five drives (albeit one was the two-yard drive in the third quarter), you take your win and move on.
But they weren’t far from those inches costing them this time.
The Cowboys have a number of great things going on with their defense and we will detail many of them here, but I have spent the morning looking at the two games against Carson Wentz and the Eagles offense. That unit is out of sync, but has many weapons that trouble a team when going right. The Cowboys have blitzed, but they try to do it in moderation and at unpredictable points. Early in the season, the Dallas blitzes came largely on third down — but honestly, they now mix it up so well that I am not seeing a big pattern.
But what we are seeing is a real difference in Wentz and the Eagles’ performance when the blitz is called. Here is Sunday’s breakdown. Notice the yards per play; the damage done was primarily against four rushers. The Cowboys got both of their sacks that way. But look at the Cowboys’ results when they brought five rushers. They allowed just one completion out of seven snaps for a passer rating of 42.
Now, notice the production of the two meetings against Wentz this year. Here are his numbers when the Cowboys don’t blitz:
Here are the numbers when they do blitz. Look at the difference in yards per play and the overall passer rating numbers that drop from 123 down to 68. That is the difference from the best passer in football (Drew Brees) to the very worst (Josh Rosen).
Again, the key with blitzing is to get the offense to waste plays and to end drives. You want highlight sacks for sure, but if their success rates are dropping from great to awful because your ambushes are working, you are onto something.
Here is the look we are seeing pretty often. For lack of a better term, the Cowboys are blitzing or threatening a blitz out of this overload look from the defensive line. It screws up the protection calls and it is something to look for because they have been doing it plenty.
Both defensive tackles are on the same side of the center, while nobody is between the wide DE and the opposite A-Gap. They can’t do this on running downs, but the more it becomes a passing look, the Cowboys will do this and either blitz from it, run stunts out of it, or just try to screw up the protection. To their credit, whether blitzing or bluffing, they are keeping these offenses off guard.
[h=3]WEEKLY DATA BOX – PHILADELPHIA[/h]
You are seldom going to hold a team to one third-down conversion and less than 23 minutes of possession. Add that to the sixth time this season the defense has held their opposition below 300 yards and you have a beautiful performance. The Cowboys looked like they ran out of gas late (or the Eagles finally got more comfortable), but it was by all accounts a pretty weird afternoon of football. The point is this defense has taken that Tennessee game and used it as motivation. During this winning streak the defense has not been perfect, but it’s darn close.
[h=3]CARSON WENTZ THROW CHART[/h]
As a general rule, Carson Wentz is one of the league’s brightest QB prospects. But, he did not have much on Sunday and is in a period of regression that has people freaking out a bit. This league will build you up quickly (he was voted as the No. 2 player in the NFL’s Top 100 this summer) and then panic just as quickly if you don’t live up to those lofty projections.
He looked uncomfortable, a tad panicked, and was unable to put the throws where he wanted. In other words, he looks like a professional QB in a hostile setting trying to do an impossible job.
SPLASH PLAYS – GAME 13
If anything has really taken off during this stretch of the season, I would nominate that the defensive tackle play has really been superb — and that is due to the combination of Maliek Collins, Tyrone Crawford, and run-down force Antwaun Woods. They have 35.5 splash plays combined, which is uncommonly great for this position group and pairs wonderfully with what Lawrence continues to accomplish — with a little help from Randy Gregory.
This is a formidable front.
SPLASH PLAYS – SEASON TOTALS
[h=3]SNAP COUNTS[/h]
I always say I will try to limit how long I make this thing, but then I keep seeing plays I want to show you and discuss. So, in addition to the two snaps above, here are 13 more. Let’s get to work.
[h=3]FILM STUDY[/h]
1Q – 10:04 – 3rd and 8
Here is the first Eagles third-and-long, and the Cowboys start messing with the overload alignment again. Then Randy Gregory gets home on Jason Peters and picks up another sack. I know he draws penalties, but he is also getting the edge and some of those recent penalties have been very dubious. I think 94 has actually become underrated. He is really athletic and seemingly improving by the minute.
1Q – 1:40 – 2nd and 7
This, of course, is a messed-up snap and exchange, but it shows the ferocity of 96-Collins in space. He is another young Cowboy who is about due for a contract. He is a very talented player who just needs to stay healthy, and we have seen the defensive line take another step forward with his availability. Dallas will have a tough decision to contend with when it comes time to pay Collins, but he can really do the job versus run and pass. He has a rare combination of strength and quickness and is a true dancing bear.
1Q – 1:08 – 3rd and 11
Here is another third and long, and another overload alignment from the front with a Jaylon Smith blitz attached through that weak side. But the protection is pretty good, and here is what a new wide receiver and quarterback often look like after a midseason trade: They just are a little off. That is all it takes in the NFL. Somehow Dak and Amari have adjusted to each other very quickly, but Wentz and Golden Tate are not seeing things the same way. This could be a huge play, but just ends up being a frustrating miss against Jourdan Lewis in the slot. Notice that on third and long the Cowboys switched Byron Jones onto Zack Ertz.
2Q – 8:48 – 3rd and 1
I’m not sure what the Eagles are thinking here, but this looks like a speed QB option to the short side against DeMarcus Lawrence. Lane Johnson is a great right tackle, but he isn’t beating Lawrence here. Jeff Heath plays the pitch perfectly, so Wentz has no place to go and Lawrence ends the drive right there. This is a great stop and confusing play-call, perhaps out of respect for the Cowboys linebackers right now. They don’t trust a simple run to the left there against Jaylon Smith and Leighton Vander Esch.
2Q – 0:59 – 1st and 10
This is a bad decision by Wentz. The Eagles are also poor in pass-protection, but Prescott would get roasted for taking this sack (and fumbling) on first down. Hit Sproles in the flat quickly, take a few yards and reload. Instead, Crawford barges through the left guard and blindsides Wentz, which knocks the ball free — and Collins gets to it for a massive takeaway. Look at those bodies get to the ball.
3Q – 13:40 – 3rd and 9
On this third and long, the Cowboys use an overload alignment on the defensive line, then blitz in behind it with a robber coming down to grab the slant if Wentz throws it. He doesn’t, but has guys in his face as he tries to get the ball out. This time, it is Maliek Collins and Lawrence again. But look at that pressure off the blitz. He has very little chance to find anything. The Cowboys have him spooked.
3Q – 7:07 – 3rd and 3
Philadelphia runs a pick play to free up Jeffery on third and short, but Chido Awuzie fights through and breaks up the pass for a splash play of his own. Also, Jeffery can sense that Jaylon is about to light him up so he bails out in one of several business decisions he made Sunday.
3Q – 1:19 – 2nd and 4
Here is Jeffery again and a second-down blitz from the Cowboys. Wentz can’t do much more here, but this is where Xavier Woods got the idea on that Goedert play later in the game. The broadcast also mentioned here that if Wentz waits another count he has Sproles on a wheel against DeMarcus Lawrence on this fire zone blitz which would probably go pretty well for Sproles.
3Q – 1:14 – 3rd and 4
This won’t be called a sack, but it is how the Cowboys get there with four and close off the escape hatches. Wentz just needs four yards, but Lawrence knows the plan — and nobody seems able to outrun him these days. He is playing at an amazing level and you see it every week. A high motor with great ability equals a superstar.
3Q – 0:29 – 4th and 3
This is quite a design — and one that puts Vander Esch in a real bind. If he goes over it, he might have a better chance, but it is a very tough play even with no pick play. Jeffery goes right at him and Sproles just needs three yards on the fourth-down play. Vander Esch is tough to out-quick, but Sproles did it a few times on this day. That guy is probably going to Canton and I am not sure you can defend this successfully, to be honest.
4Q – 12:19 – 3rd and 8
The Cowboys wisely get out of Cover-1 on this third and long, and basically look to be in Quarters — so they simply switch off the slant to Ertz. There is no pick play or rub route if you just sit in zone. The Eagles again look pretty confused by the coverage and Ertz seems to give up on the play. Brown does it right and might even have an interception if he is looking, but I also might be getting greedy.
4Q – 6:22 – 3rd and 6
This is a great play by Anthony Brown. The Cowboys run Cover-1 Robber with a blitz and Tate looks open. Ball placement might allow Brown back in, but Wentz probably senses the safety creeping down in front of Tate. Either way, it is another blitz that leaves the Eagles looking confused and a fine play by Brown to break it up and get off the field. You can definitely see the patterns here.
4Q – 4:42 – 1st and 10
This is a weird one to end on, but it is before those two plays up top. This is the one time that Wentz beat a blitz on Sunday and it takes a wonderful throw to Goedert against Jaylon Smith on that same over-route concept to attack a Cover 3.
Overall, the story is that the defense held up against Wentz and the Eagles’ weapons for two games, swept the season series, and effectively eliminated the Eagles from even a chance to defend their title. There are some inches in each game that went the Cowboys’ way, but many would say they were overdue to get some breaks. They played very well and earned their wins.
Now, on to Andrew Luck and the Colts. No rest for the weary.