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Cotton

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[h=1]NFL Week 15 early odds: First-place Cowboys open as three-point road underdogs to Colts[/h] [h=2]Here's an early look at the lines for all NFL games being played in Week 15[/h]
    John Breech  mugshot

With a five-game winning streak, the Dallas Cowboys are officially the hottest team in the NFL, but don't tell that to the oddsmakers in Vegas, because they don't seem to care.

In the early odds for Week 15, the Cowboys have opened as a three-point underdog for their game in Indianapolis. If the point spread doesn't change, it will mark the third time in five games that the Cowboys have been an underdog.
At this point though, the Cowboys probably don't mind, and that's because they've been thriving in the underdog role over the past two months. Since the beginning of October, the Cowboys have been an underdog a total of five times and they've gone 4-1 straight-up in those games and an impressive 5-0 against the spread (ATS).

In the past four games where they've been an underdog, the Cowboys have actually won all four games outright.

Here are those games:

Week 6: Cowboys beat Jaguars 40-7 as 3-point underdog.
Week 10: Cowboys beat Eagles 27-20 as 7.5-point underdog.
Week 11: Cowboys beat Falcons 22-19 as 3.5-point underdog.
Week 13: Cowboys beat Saints 13-10 as 7.5-point underdog.

One year ago, we watched an NFC East team put on dog masks and ride the underdog role all the way to a Super Bowl win. If any team could fill that role this year, it's the Cowboys, who could actually sew up a playoff spot on Sunday. If the Cowboys beat the Colts, they'll officially clinch the NFC East title and the playoff berth that comes with it.
 

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[h=1]Cowboys at Colts: What you need to know about Indianapolis[/h] [h=2]by Michael H. Vu1 hour ago

Coming off an emotional win, the Dallas Cowboys are looking to beat the Colts for a sixth straight win. Here is what you need to know about Indianapolis.[/h]
It’s hard not to think about these two words when you bring up the Dallas Cowboys. Maybe you’ve thought of it too. I know I have. After ripping off an emotional win against a division rival, the defending Super Bowl champs, it’s hard not to map out the team’s trajectory.

So, here we go, I’m going to say the two magical words: Super Bowl. Boom. Said it. It’s out in the open for all us to marinate and simmer in. Super Bowl.

Now, it might be too early to talk about things like the playoffs and the NFC Championship game, but it isn’t out of the realm for this team. Especially after finding new life with the addition of Amari Cooper. Especially how the Dallas Cowboys fought out of a 3-5 deficit, earning their way up to a 8-5 record with a stellar defense.

The Cowboys haven’t punched their playoff ticket just yet, but after stomping the Eagles out of the playoffs picture, Big D is securing up the division. Next up is the Indianapolis Colts, who at 7-6, are chasing their playoffs dreams as well.

The match is a tricky one, so let’s break it down. Can the Cowboys rip out a sixth consecutive win? Stick around to see my prediction at the end!

A) The Colts have a top-ten offense.

Quarterback Andrew Luck and company are averaging 382.4 yards per game. They are second in the league in third down percentage, converting 47 percent. That’s a big number and one that the Dallas defense must keep in mind. It’ll be interesting to see what the Cowboys can muster up against Luck in key moments.

B) Andrew Luck is having a career year, but nobody is noticing.

Let’s be honest, quarterbacks Drew Brees and Tom Brady are hogging the spotlight. Rightfully so. But let’s not discount Luck, who is coming back after missing the 2017 season.

The quarterback is having one of the best years of his career. His 7-6 record doesn’t say it, but his numbers are there. Luck has a 99.2 quarterback rating, a career high and a 68.5 QBR, another career high.

He has 3759 passing yards, 34 touchdowns to 13 interceptions. He has only been sacked 16 times through 13 games.

C) The T.Y. Hilton puzzle.

Receiver Hilton should be an interesting match for the Cowboys’ cornerbacks. T.Y. Hilton is averaging 15.9 yards a catch, with 16 catches going 20 yards or more. He’s a playmaker and the Cowboys have to be ready. He’s Luck’s favorite target, earning 98 targets and he leads the team with 62 receptions.

D) No Hilton, then it’s on to Eric Ebron.

Don’t overlook tight end Ebron. The 2014 first round pick has 12 touchdowns, 58 catches and averages 11.3 yards a game. He is Luck’s second favorite target and someone who could give the linebackers some trouble with his ability.

After spending his first four seasons with the Detroit Lions, the 25-year-old has found a new home with the Colts. He helped the Colts beat the Texans last week, 24-21, with four receptions and one score.

E) Colts in the picture.

With the Colts standing at 7-6, they are in the thick of things for the sixth and final spot for the playoffs. Four teams own a 7-6 record, including the Ravens, Dolphins, and Titans. The Broncos are just behind those crews with a 6-7 standing.
NEXT: Dallas Cowboys - 5 Best Free Agent Signings Of All Time
You have to expect the Colts to come out swinging. Clearly, the Cowboys are in better standing than the Colts, who are fighting from the outside and trying to work their way in. So, what’s my prediction? Again, I’m 0-5 in my last five predictions. Why stop now?

Prediction: Colts 24, Cowboys 20.
 

Cotton

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Cowboysrock55

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I probably would, given where we are with the standings right now, and given that Connor Williams is able to play. I might give Tyron Smith another week off too.
I would prefer it not be the same week.
 

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[h=1][/h]
How do the Cowboys match up against Indianapolis and former coach Matt Eberflus?



By Marcus Mosher 4h ago

At one point​ in the regular season, I​ looked at the Cowboys’ schedule and thought that their​​ Week 15 matchup with the Colts should be a cakewalk. But like the Cowboys, the Colts are among NFL’s hottest teams, winning six of their last seven games. Dallas will enter this week as a three-point underdog in Indianapolis. With a win, the Cowboys will officially become the NFC East Champions. But getting that “W” is going to be much more difficult than initially anticipated.

The Colts’ depth chart doesn’t immediately indicate a defense with a lot of talent. But defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus, who was with the Cowboys for years, has his team playing fast and above their skill level. For a defense that has basically been rebuilt in one offseason, the Colts are 15th in points allowed per game (23.1) and eighth in takeaways (21).

In Week 14, the Colts’ defense smothered the Texans’ offense, allowing just 315 yards and 21 points. Deshaun Watson was sacked five times, and wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins finished the game with only four catches for 36 yards on ten targets. The Houston offense was out of sync for most of the day.

How did the Colts stop Deshaun Watson and the Texans’ passing attack? Their gameplan was actually fairly simple. “We took away the run. And we tried to make (Watson) beat us with his arm,” rookie linebacker Darius Leonard told the Indy Star. They kept Watson inside the pocket, and the Texans’ offense suffered. On the back end, they mixed up their coverages to keep Watson and the receivers guessing. It was a terrific game plan by the Colts’ first-year coordinator.

Fortunately for the Cowboys, the Colts may have tipped their hand on how they will attempt to stop Dallas’ offense. For the most part, the Cowboys and Texans play a similar style of football. Both teams want balance, and each has a quarterback that can make plays outside the pocket. Unfortunately for Dallas, the Cowboys offensive line is playing at the Texans’ level as well.

This week, I expect the Colts to deploy a similar game plan against Dallas. Eberflus is going to dare the Cowboys to throw the ball, all while sending controlled blitzes and mixing up coverages. Against the Texans, Eberflus did everything in his power to confuse Deshaun Watson. While the Colts aren’t a blitz-heavy team, they did throw a quite few at Watson this week, specifically off the edge.

Take a look at this blitz from Indianapolis. The Colts send six with the idea of keeping Watson inside the pocket. If he is going to beat the blitz on this play, he is going to need to stand in the pocket and make a throw down the field. Before Watson can even make a read, the slot defender makes the sack. This was a perfectly designed blitz by the Colts that got them off the field in the first quarter.



One of Prescott’s worst traits is this: When he feels pressure, he often backs up or spins backward to find space. Deshaun Watson has that problem as well. When these quarterbacks are being chased and can’t move backward, panic will often ensue. I have to give the Cowboys’ former linebackers coach a lot of credit for how he designed his blitzes on Sunday. Eberflus dared Watson to hang in the pocket and forced him to step up, rather than backward. Take a look at this sack by the Colts, and you will see exactly what I mean.



Prescott has struggled to hold onto the ball this season. He has already lost six fumbles. In Week 15, that number could rise if Prescott doesn’t step up in the pocket. Eberflus will know his tendency to drift and will design rushes like the one above to take advantage of that fatal flaw. This type of rush by the Colts happened over and over on Sunday. They would send a slot cornerback and tell him to take a wide angle. It disrupted Watson all game long.



This week, Prescott will need to stand in the pocket and make throws despite having defenders near him. If Dallas had their 2016 offensive line heading into this game, I highly doubt the Colts would dare to blitz Prescott. But with the current Cowboys’ line in shambles. You can make a case that it is one of the worst pass-blocking units in the NFL. On Sunday, it’s going to be up to Prescott to make some big-time pocket throws.

For him to do so, he’s going to need wide receiver Amari Cooper to be dominant once again. But the Colts certainly aren’t going to make life easy on him. Let’s take a look at how the Colts defended DeAndre Hopkins on Sunday. Hopkins is one of league’s best receivers, and the Colts didn’t have the cornerbacks on the outside to play man coverage on every snap. Instead, they had to disguise their coverages and hope their pass-rush got to Watson before he could figure things out. Take a look at this play on third down. The Colts used a Cover-3 defense and dropped a linebacker into Hopkins’ zone. Knowing the slant was covered, cornerback Pierre Desir sat on the Out route, forcing Watson to hold onto the ball. I slowed down the video to show just how much attention the Colts gave the Texans’ No. 1 receiver on Sunday.



In the red zone, the Colts forced Watson to make tough throws into bracket coverage if he wanted to hit Hopkins. Take a look at this end zone coverage and you will see three players near Hopkins (left slot) in the end zone. Indianapolis just tried a little bit of everything to get the Texans off-balance.



All season long, the Colts have done well against their opponent’s No. 1 receiver despite not having a lockdown cornerback. They are essentially daring quarterbacks to beat them by finding another, lesser option in the passing game. In Week 14, the Texans just didn’t have a good enough No. 2 to make the Colts pay for their aggressiveness. How can Dallas take advantage of that same aggressiveness this week? It might not be as hard as it seems.

What I would like to see from the Cowboys Sunday is for the team to max-protect more often, allowing Prescott and his receivers time to make plays. Simply put, the Colts don’t have a defender that can cover Amari Cooper. If Prescott is given enough time in the pocket, Cooper will eventually get open, even if it’s against two defenders. However, the key to this game may be just how quickly Prescott can identify the coverage. If he can do so pre-snap, Dallas should have no problem carving up this Colts’ defense. But if he is forced to make decisions after the snap while facing the rush, it could be a long day for the Cowboys offense.

I expect the Colts to blitz a lot and place a lot of defenders near the line of scrimmage to stop Ezekiel Elliott. Therefore, Dallas would be wise to run a lot of screens early in the contest to slow their aggressiveness. A few, well-executed screens to either Elliott or even a tight-end screen should back them off a bit.

This game is going to be an interesting game of cat-and-mouse. Jason Garrett and Scott Linehan know Matt Eberflus well and how he likes to play defense. At the same time, Eberflus knows the weaknesses of this Dallas roster and how to rattle Prescott. For the Cowboys to win this game, they are going to need to stay one step ahead of Eberflus all afternoon. If they go into this matchup thinking they just will execute their normal offense, they will surely lose. This game will likely be won or lost depending on which team makes the best in-game adjustments. It will be fascinating to see if Jason Garrett and Co. can design a game plan to beat their former linebacker coach.
 

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If we lose this game, we can still clinch by both the Eagles and Redskins losing. I would much rather just win.
 

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[h=1]Matt Eberflus vs. Scott Linehan is key matchup for Cowboys[/h] ByPATRIK WALKER 22 hours ago
Matt Eberflus.

You remember him, yes? You should, considering he spent the previous seven years with the Dallas Cowboys, originally as their linebackers coach before being given the additional task of passing game coordinator. It was just this past offseason, in the shuffling of assistant coaches within the organization, that saw Eberflus opt to take his leave and head to the Indianapolis Colts to take over as their defensive coordinator. One of the more talented young coaching minds in Dallas at the time, Eberflus was routinely praised by both the team and players, and it led to him reportedly being offered the DC role by the Cowboys.

His contract was expiring and the team didn't want to see him walk, willing to move titles around, which would've included naming the incumbent Rod Marinelli as assistant head coach to give the coordinator seat to Eberflus. He'd decline, but mostly out of loyalty to Marinelli, feeling he'd be "stepping on the toes" of his mentor.

Fast forward to Week 15 and Eberflus will face his former team for the first time, leading a defense that allows only four points more per game than their dominant Cowboys' counterparts -- now led by both Marinelli and Eberflus' replacement, Kris Richard. It's been one of the best defensive years for both teams, making it obvious things worked out for both clubs in the end. Things will come to a head on Dec. 16 though, as each side tries to suffocate the offense of the other, and each has the ability to do it.

As it stands, they're nearly identical with around 36 sacks a piece, but the Colts have 11 interceptions to the Cowboys' eight count. Additionally, it can't be overlooked just how much Eberflus knows about offensive coordinator Scott Linehan and the players he's helped coach as recently as last December. Head coach Jason Garrett understands how that edge can play out, speaking from a recent press conference ahead of Sunday's game.

"Well, it is what it is," he said, via Mark Lane of WFAA Sports. "He was a great coach for us and added so much to our program here and had a big impact in what we were doing. [It was] a great opportunity for him to go up there to coordinate the defense. Like you said, he knows a lot of our players.

"He knows a lot about what we want to do offensively, but at the same time, we kind of know him too. You run into these things a lot in football where you've had someone in the organization go somewhere else -- division opponents and all that kind of stuff. It typically cuts both ways, but really happy for Matt [and] the job he's doing there. He did a great job for us when he was here."

The chess match between Eberflus and Linehan will ultimately come down to who is able and willing to adapt on the fly, something the latter has not continually shown a willingness to do. He won't have a choice in the matter though, if the Cowboys want a shot at improving to 3-4 on the road and clinching the NFC East in the process, otherwise a more fluid Eberflus will make things exceedingly difficult for an offense that -- albeit talented -- has yet to prove it can match serve every single week with its defensive counterparts. Despite career-best outings recently from running back Ezekiel Elliott and wideout Amari Cooper, the Cowboys are still 23rd in the NFL in points per game (21.2), and 25th in weekly passing yardage (218.3).

Winning hasn't exactly cured everything in the Metroplex.

There's undoubtedly extra motivation for Eberflus to defeat Dallas, given it's his former employer, as if the playoff-chasing Colts need any more of that juice. The challenge on the road will be steep, and it's usually the Cowboys' defense that's forced to save the day, which may again be the case on Sunday.
 

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[h=1]Cowboys Weekend Riffing: Week 15 at Indianapolis – and diagnosing the red-zone issues[/h]

By Bob Sturm 1h ago

142​ days​ since training camp​ opened in Oxnard, 51 days​ until Super Bowl 53 in Atlanta, and just two​​ more days until the Week 15 trip to Indianapolis to take on the Colts at noon….

The Cowboys are red-hot entering Sunday’s rare cross-conference showdown as the 2018 season turns toward its final stretch. 2017 was a very disappointing campaign, and the first several weeks of 2018 appeared different, but lousy in their own way. Now the team is on fire and seems to be on a fast track for the postseason. How did they quickly flip a switch from lousy to where they are now as the team nobody wants to play? Theories abound. But they are in a really good spot presently, after everyone left them for dead weeks back.

The 2018 Indianapolis Colts have followed a similar formula. After starting 1-5, nobody expected the Colts to dream about playoff games. Since 1990, 97 teams have started 1-5 and only one, the 2015 Kansas City Chiefs, made the playoffs. But they have worked their way up the standings by winning six of their last seven and are poised to push their way right into the AFC tournament. They badly need Sunday’s game.

The Cowboys and Colts have followed a somewhat similar path to this point in the road over the last 24 months, and for me, this will be a fantastic opportunity for Jason Garrett to demonstrate why he is the man for this job. I have always claimed the biggest objective for a head coach when it comes to the game itself is to find a way to instill in his men the emotional understanding of what level each game demands. The Cowboys consistently play hard and seem to rise up for their biggest games. But after the five weeks or so of new emotional challenges each week, is this one ripe for a letdown? Look at the stretch they have been on:

November 11th – Sunday night football in Philadelphia with the season hanging by a string.

November 18th – A revenge opportunity, returning to the site of last year’s demise in Atlanta.

November 22nd – Thanksgiving Day versus a divisional rival that beat you one month earlier.

November 29th – A chance to spring the biggest home upset of Garrett era against the Saints with whole NFL watching.

December 9th – The battle for the NFC East crown and a chance to end the Eagles’ run on top.

Seldom will you see five consecutive weeks where the schedule takes care of the emotion all by itself. It doesn’t require a big speech or grand gestures. The team was not going to struggle to get up for those tests.

But we know how this sport works. We also know that at some point, emotional play exhausts a team’s peak energy. Will it happen Sunday? It’s a noon game against an AFC team that you have no venom for and seldom see, and the opponent desperately needs the game — more than you. The Cowboys have been told just how great they are all week. Their urgency level has also dropped considerably now that it appears Washington and Philadelphia are doomed. For the first time in a huge stretch, the human emotion of desperation may not be on the Cowboys’ side when they take the field against a team that is probably in their same tier.

Either the Cowboys are up for it when toe meets leather at 12:01 central time Sunday, or the good times will end this week in Indianapolis. If I am Jason Garrett, I think hard about what I say to the team Saturday night and Sunday morning to try to push any emotional buttons I can think of.

Let’s look at some of the key matchups that will decide this game, with the benefit of our “nickel down” roster charts below. When a team needs a third down, thanks to our graphics man Skyler Thiot, here is what the two lineups might look like.

[h=3]WHEN THE COWBOYS HAVE THE BALL[/h]


For the sake of discussion, let’s assume Zack Martin will play on Sunday (the benefit of the doubt goes to players who have never missed a game), but each team has a key offensive lineman who is an outstanding player. Both are game-time decisions.

Here are the Cowboys’ offensive rankings:



It is interesting, of course, to see how badly the Cowboys buried themselves in September and October. Since the Amari Cooper trade, they aren’t 20th in total offense. They are actually ninth. They are not 25th in passing, they are 10th. They are not 32rd in points, but 12th. They are not 12th on third downs, but actually second. Now, the red zone (32nd) and the sack (28th) rankings remain poor, but surely that should raise some optimism about the true identity of this offense. Yes, they are still missing some big opportunities, but the offense in Dallas for six weeks now does not resemble what was going on before the trade.

This week they square off against a very young Colts defense and one that can really put some speed on the field. No team in the NFL has played more rookie snaps in 2018 than the Colts, who are trying to completely remake their roster and benefited nicely from the Sam Darnold trade last April. Not only did they completely rebuild their offensive line, but they also overhauled their defensive front. On Sunday in nickel situations, you will see 2018 second-round rookies Darius Leonard, Tyquan Lewis, and Kemoko Turay all take the field and make a difference. They are young and with Matt Eberflus at the helm, they will have an idea of what Dallas likes to do.



Prescott will definitely want to be sure he knows where the Colts safeties are, as 2017 first-round pick Malik Hooker (still 22 years old) can cover plenty of ground in center field and seems more like a cornerback playing safety. Up front, the Colts have several under-rated veterans in their rotation. SMU’s Margus Hunt and Mississippi State’s Denico Autry are both having their best professional season with the Colts this year, and the well-traveled Jabaal Sheard is nearing 50 career sacks and is always around the QB. I assume he will be testing La’el Collins all day long.

We know the Eberflus coaching style with all of his Rod Marinelli influences. Nobody blitzes less in the NFL this season than the Colts’ 14.9% rate. In particular, they are dead last in pressure calls on third down, and certainly want to make you show patience and drive the ball down the field rather than getting beat big. As you know, this might actually play nicely into the Cowboys’ strengths if they can be efficient on third downs and the red zone.

And, yes, if there was a week where settling for field goals at the end of long drives will probably get you beat, this will be the week.

[h=3]WHEN THE COLTS HAVE THE BALL[/h]


Of all of the hot takes 2018 has brought, I most regret reading too much into the early weeks of Andrew Luck’s return season and deducing that his arm might be forever shredded. He missed all of 2017 and the league was on full alert when he was being sheltered heavily in training camp and then was just dumping the ball out quickly over and over again without his patented deep shots and big plays early. There was even the oddity of being replaced for a Hail Mary throw in Philadelphia, which really got us all worked up.

Thankfully, those concerns have proven to be ridiculous. Luck is back, and in some ways, better than ever. Frank Reich has proven to be a strong hire and, in particular, his grasp for designing a quick-hitting offense that moves the chains and keeps a QB from taking a beating is on full display.

The Colts led the NFL in sacks allowed from 2016-2017. 100 sacks against in two seasons had everyone blaming their QB for holding the ball too much (even though they ended up starting a few different QBs.) This is where I think it is important for me to raise my disagreement with this new analytic claim that sacks are a QB stat. The theory is that a QB can control if he is sacked by merely getting rid of the ball. Now, it might take 3,000 words to fully make my point, but I think Luck going from the most-sacked QB in 2016 to nearly the least-sacked QB in 2018 (which was his very next season) demonstrates the many elements that go into sacks — from offensive line personnel to scheme, execution, and yes, the QB’s trigger to get the ball out.

If you think it is a just QB stat as many in the football analytics community insist, you lessen the impact of drafting the spectacular Quenton Nelson out of Notre Dame at the top of the 2018 draft, then Braden Smith out of Auburn in Round 2. Add that to the return of excellent center Ryan Kelly (who is racing to get healthy for Sunday) and then you have substantially upgraded three of the five offensive line positions. Now, bring in Reich’s quick-hitting scheme, and presto — the QB is no longer getting sacked. He is recently coming off a six-week stretch where he was sacked just once in 193 pass attempts! These pieces of evidence make it difficult for me to blame sacks on the QB alone. He plays a role, but I might divide it into thirds: 33% QB, 33% competent OL play, and 33% scheme. Of course, each particular sack will move those percentages, but as a whole, I see it like this and therefore don’t buy ESPN’s QBR, which heavily debits sacks on the ledger of the QB.



Regardless of that mini-rant, we should know that the Colts do their damage through the air, primarily with old familiar names like the great T.Y. Hilton — who will absolutely destroy your game plan by getting loose a time or two downfield. He also brings down contested catches as well as anyone this side of Antonio Brown. He is an amazing player who has been overlooked in recent years, but that is our fault. He is still as awesome as ever.

Add to that the breakout season of Eric Ebron, who was drafted right before Odell Beckham in Detroit and then was a frustrating part of their offense for four years. Surely, if Matthew Stafford and that attack couldn’t figure him out, maybe there was nothing to figure out. Well, he took the short ride to Indy for two years and $13 million, and with 12 touchdowns in 13 weeks, has already exceeded his four-year touchdown total in Detroit (11). He is someone to take careful note of, as probably the second-most likely target of Luck’s reads.



The Dallas defense is playing at a very high level, but on Sunday they will have to take their show on the road again, curtail the explosive plays and to try to turn this into a slugfest. Tackling well in the open field will be vital and forcing a few takeaways would be a key objective. I think this is a spot for the linebackers to continue their big season, particularly as Sean Lee potentially joins the existing Leighton Vander Esch-Jaylon Smith mix.

For me, this is yet another great test for the Cowboys. I think a loss would likely lock in the No. 4 seed (rather than sustaining the hope of leapfrogging Chicago), but you always get nervous playing on the road against a team that needs the game more than you do.

Not that my picks matter, but I think I have a slight lean towards the Colts here. I do love some of the smaller matchups in this noon start that could swing the game back to Dallas in this Super Bowl V rematch (a fact that I am sure is lost on every single player on the field on Sunday, and most readers, too).
 

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To add to his Defensive Rookie of the Year résumé, Leonard is first in the NFL in total tackles (135) and solo tackles (90), is tied for first in the NFL in 10-plus tackle games (6), is also first among rookies in forced fumbles (4) and fumble recoveries (2); he’s second among NFL rookies and tied for 10th in the AFC in sacks (7.0).
He also has an interception and four passes defensed.
Jeez. He makes LVE look like a steaming pile of dogshit.
 

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