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[h=1]Mike Sando Jul 22, 2019[/h]
Welcome to my sixth annual Quarterback Tiers survey. As “QB Tiers” makes its debut on The Athletic after five years at ESPN, a short primer is in order.
Fifty-five NFL coaches and executives contributed to the survey this year by placing all veteran starting quarterbacks into one of five tiers and then offering insights into their thinking.
Tier 1 is reserved for the best, while Tier 5 is so poor that no starters received a majority of votes in that tier this year.
Once ballots were in, I averaged the results to create a ranking. The Green Bay Packers’ Aaron Rodgers commanded 53 Tier 1 votes and two Tier 2 votes, creating a 1.04 average that narrowly landed him atop the rankings despite a tumultuous 2018 season, generating a rich, lively discussion among voters. By proceeding past this introduction, you’ll enjoy a front-row seat for some of the most candid discussions among those voters — not just for Rodgers, but for all quarterbacks.
The rankings are not gospel. No single voter agrees with the final results exactly. There are quarterbacks I’d move higher or lower if filling out my own ballot. This is a composite look at what the league thinks of its quarterbacks and why.
I’ve defined each tier based on input collected over the years during hundreds of discussions with coaches and evaluators. Tier definitions are spelled out below, atop each section. Generally speaking, the better the tier, the less help the quarterback needs from his defense and running game to succeed. Every quarterback resides within the tier for which he received the most votes.
Only non-rookie starters were included, on the thinking that mixing rookies with veterans would create an apples-to-oranges dynamic.
The Miami Dolphins have two quarterbacks in this survey. Thirty teams are represented once. The Arizona Cardinals, with rookie Kyler Murray identified as the clear starter, are the only team not represented.
Away we go … [HR][/HR][h=1]Tier 1[/h]
A Tier 1 quarterback can carry his team each week. The team wins because of him. He expertly handles pure passing situations.
[h=4]Tier 1 votes: 53 | Tier 2 votes: 2[/h]
Rodgers has at least tied for the top spot six times in six years of QB Tiers balloting, but some voters were less enthusiastic this time around. Two even placed Rodgers in the second tier, the first time Rodgers received a second-tier vote since 2014, when he was coming off an injury.
“It was always Ted Thompson or Mike McCarthy’s fault, and when it gets to be two people’s fault, then you wonder,” a GM who nonetheless placed Rodgers in the top tier said. “You see the body language and then you realize the heroics come when there is nothing to lose.”
Those most critical of Rodgers raised concerns about him becoming less coachable, going for big plays instead of running the offense, failing to get Green Bay into the playoffs and losing some dynamism through cumulative injuries.
“Guys like Rodgers get canonized and put on a pedestal so high that it’s hard for the coach to keep up,” said a coach who placed Rodgers in the top tier. “Someone has to tell him, ‘Listen, if you do that again, I’m going to kick you right in the balls.”
A different coach had a different message for Rodgers: “Please, come to my team!”
The coach who thought legendary QBs sometimes need a figurative kick below the belt thought Brett Favre missed that type of hard coaching later in his career. Another veteran coach saw similarities among Rodgers, Dan Marino and Tony Romo later in their careers, suggesting all three became tougher to coach.
“Rodgers is a stud,” a veteran defensive coordinator pushed back. “That’s a bitch right there. It is never dead with Rodgers. He has eyes in the back of his head. Special.”
Another voter explained that “since we do not know what plays are called and we do not know what his audible ability is from the outside, I’m looking at this as who do you want on your team and who is hardest to defend by your definitions? Rodgers comes out tops on both.”
Another Rodgers defender said he charted all the catchable passes Rodgers delivered that were not caught through the bulk of last season. His conclusion: Rodgers’ incomplete passes were better than a lot of starters’ highlights.
“Debating whether Rodgers is in the top tier is the equivalent of asking whether LeBron James is the best basketball player,” a defensive backs coach said, “because he is just so gifted with some of his abilities, and there is no way you can say a Matt Ryan is better even though there could be some years statistically where a case can be made.”
The Packers obviously could have done more to support Rodgers. Some voters also thought Green Bay would benefit from offensive scheme changes.
“Rodgers is the only one that can do everything with the least talent,” a different defensive coordinator said. “Brady makes Tier 1 decisions but cannot carry the team in the same way. New England has the system and the running game. Put all the other quarterbacks on that (Packers) team and who do you think would succeed? Not many.”
[h=4]Tier 1 votes: 52 | Tier 2 votes: 3[/h]
Go ahead, take out the microscope and look for evidence Brady is declining as his age-42 season approaches.
“You can try to find something,” an exec said. “Brady is like Steph Curry. The first quarter might look like crap, but you’d better have a big lead because when it comes to nut-cutting time, he is going to make it happen.”
Some microscope wielders suggested Brady had a harder time throwing as consistently well on passes outside the numbers.
“That is what happens when you get so high up there — people pick for little holes,” a defensive coordinator said. “At the end of the day, would you like that guy running your team? Hell, yeah! You’d take him 16 out of 16 weeks.”
Better make that 19 out of 19 weeks, through the Super Bowl, in Brady’s case.
“They say the scheme protects him, but that is by game plan,” a defensive coach with AFC East experience said. “There are still heavy-pass game plans and plans that emphasize empty. The way they are set up, the QB has to function with a certain amount of skills. He accurately passes to all the eligibles from far hash to outside the numbers.”
Two pro personnel directors and a QB coach placed Brady in the second tier. A defensive coordinator dabbled with the idea. One of the personnel directors had only Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes in his top tier, with Andrew Luck, Ben Roethlisberger, Drew Brees, Philip Rivers, Russell Wilson and Brady in the second tier. Those QBs made the top-tier cut on most ballots, but if Rodgers and Mahomes were the only guys in the top tier, well, they’re the ones with the most elite talent.
“Brady is a 1, and I don’t know how you could argue it,” an offensive coordinator said. “People can be critical about his movement or whatever, but just look at the criteria: can carry his team each week, the team wins because of him, he handles pure pass situations and has no holes. Brady plays his best in the most critical situations. Anyone who doesn’t put him as a 1 is evaluating the wrong things.”
One last question: When might Brady decline?
“I don’t see a drop-off without a catastrophic injury or, like the great pitchers, if he loses his legs,” a defensive coach said. “I believe he is increasing his fitness. And then he has the best footwork, the best execution of the screen pass, and if you watch the cutups of his fakes, it is like a f—ing magic act. Beyond that, I’m not sure the game has seen a competitor that exceeds him.”
[h=4]Tier 1 votes: 51 | Tier 2 votes: 4[/h]
Brees commanded top-tier votes at a higher rate this year than last, but quite a few voters thought he belonged at the bottom of Tier 1. There was greater enthusiasm for Mahomes than for Brees among voters who placed both in the top tier, but Brees’ much longer track record gave him the benefit of the doubt with some.
“I like to think of the ones being so rare over the years — Peyton, Brady, Rodgers,” an offensive coordinator said. “Then you take a breath and you say it’s Brees, whoever else. Look, I’m president of the Drew Brees fan club, but last year, when the run game dried up a little, I felt he was not carrying them like he was before.”
Much of the praise for Brees comes with subtle qualifiers.
“Drew can carry his team in those pure passing situations,” a head coach said. “He is limited in certain throws he has to make on rhythm now, but I think you still have to give him a 1.”
A defensive coordinator called Brees a 1 for knowing what to do but a 2 from a physical standpoint.
“The system bails him out with the run game, the quick passing game and the play-action,” said this coordinator, who placed only Rodgers and Brady in his top tier. “I don’t think he can carry a team (without that). His quick decision-making makes him.”
The general feeling was that the case for Brees as a 1 was stronger than the case for Brees as a 2.
“I think Drew is a first-half-of-the-season 1, second-half-of-the-season 2,” an offensive coordinator said. “Watch how they play now. If they play a bad defense, they might throw for 500 yards (as it was against Cincinnati last season). They play a good defense, they are going to be conservative and try to win a close game, like against Baltimore last year.”
The Saints have become much better on defense and special teams over the past couple of seasons. They have a strong ground game. Brees will surely accept that support after spending several years propping up a team that was historically bad on defense in particular.
“They’ve got a lot around him, but he makes it all go,” a GM said. “When you say, ‘As a passer, can carry the team and do all that,’ he still does that.”
[h=4]Tier 1 votes: 48 | Tier 2 votes: 7[/h]
All voters agreed Mahomes played at a top-tier level in 2018, his first as the Chiefs’ full-time starter. The seven who placed Mahomes in the second tier said they wanted to see him do it again before granting him entry into the club that Rodgers and Brady headed for so long. It’s a tough crowd.
“He is as good as I’ve ever seen,” an exec who placed Mahomes in the top tier said. “I remember seeing that last game two years ago when he played against Denver, and I said, ‘Ho-lyyy s—!’ We just could not believe some of the throws he was making. It’s ridiculous, and he is only going to get better. How can you not give him a 1? Who is better right now? You would take him over any player in the league.”
Even voters who loved Mahomes coming out of college thought he would need more time to become an MVP candidate.
“I want to see him do it again when people study him and their offense,” another exec said, “but from what I’ve seen, he might end up being the best ever. He has got some of the best-ever superpowers.”
Playing in Andy Reid’s offense stocked with playmakers surely helped.
“You play for Andy Reid and you’re going to have numbers — to the point where what’s-his-name (Donovan McNabb) thinks he’s a Hall of Famer,” a former head coach said. “What Mahomes did was still amazing. I just don’t know if you can continue to play the way he plays and not have the big mistakes. He reminds me of Favre, and I think he’s going to end up having Favre moments.”
Favre had 19 touchdowns with 24 interceptions in his second season as a starter, back when defenders got their hands on the football much more frequently. Unlike Mahomes, Favre wasn’t close to achieving MVP status during his first full season in the lineup. Of course, if a Favre-like career is the floor for Mahomes, that seems quite acceptable.
“Mahomes hasn’t been scarred yet, so he don’t give a f—,” a head coach said. “That won’t change until he throws one of those across-the-field balls for a pick in the AFC Championship Game or he goes multiple years without playoff success like Peyton did for a while.”
Another head coach looked past the spectacular plays when evaluating Mahomes.
“The thing I was so impressed with: Yeah, he makes the spectacular play, but he is playing the position,” this head coach said. “He is seeing coverage, working through progressions. He is different than (Deshaun) Watson. He is making plays in rhythm when they are there, but then he is creating some of the most unbelievable off-schedule things I have ever seen in my life.”
[h=4]Tier 1 votes: 40 | Tier 2 votes: 15[/h]
Luck carried the Colts for years and paid a heavy price physically. An improved offensive line and a shift toward offensive balance and quicker passes made Luck’s job easier upon his return from shoulder surgery.
“I personally believe that Andrew Luck is a great quarterback,” a defensive backs coach said. “I really do, for leadership, intangibles, communication. He can throw all the balls, he is very accurate, he can see what is going on in front of him. He gets it done fast.”
Finally healthy, Luck polled better in this QB Tiers survey (1.28 average) than he had in any of them since 2015 (1.14).
“Andrew Luck’s accuracy is unbelievable,” a GM said. “He can put the ball anywhere.”
The fact that Luck missed the 2017 season and then had more help from his supporting cast upon his return led some voters to place him in the second tier instead of the first, pending additional evidence.
“He has to stay healthy,” a GM said, “and I don’t know if he really carries his team right now. I just need to see that more. Frank (Reich) did a great job of balance, and it helped Luck.”
Others think Luck can become the NFL’s best quarterback — or at least among the top three — even though the first tier is crowded and could welcome other up-and-comers soon.
“Mahomes and Luck are going to be battling for that mantel in the future because Luck is special,” a personnel director said. “I think Brady is No. 1 right now.”
[h=4]Tier 1 votes: 33 | Tier 2 votes: 22[/h]
The Chargers know Rivers, as the owner of a 208-game starting streak, will be in the lineup every week. Opposing defenses know Rivers will be in the same spot — right there in the pocket — on just about every pass play.
What has changed over the past two seasons is that Rivers, backed by an improved defense, has reduced the interceptions that dogged him in 2014 and 2016. Throwing 508 passes last season, Rivers’ lowest total since 2009, probably helped reduce chances for negative plays.
“Right when you have seen some age, it disappears,” a head coach said.
The knock on Rivers is he can’t create when plays break, but the way Rivers compensates makes him special, with one offensive coordinator calling Rivers’ field vision unbelievable.
“We play him this season, so I’ve been watching him, and he is just a conductor,” a defensive assistant said. “If you are a poor poker player and he has any sense of what you are in, he knows what to do, so it is all about disguise. You have to f— with him presnap or he will pick you apart.”
Some would like to see more from Rivers in the biggest games.
“Don’t get me wrong, I hate playing against the f—r, but I have him right there with Roethlisberger, just an inch below the top guys,” a defensive coordinator said. “(The Chargers) made the playoffs last year, but it’s almost like they are stuck right there.”
An evaluator used Rivers as a launching point to discuss the renaissance of the older Tier 1 QB, with so many 35-and-older starters producing at a high level. Improved conditioning and rule changes could be among the factors for the sustained success of Rivers, Brady, Brees and others. Rivers did seem to slow down late last season, but he was not alone.
“Of all the good QB play in 2018, my takeaway has been how, if I were starting a team right now, Rivers at 37 years old would be in the discussion if some of my other Tier 1 guys went before him,” this evaluator said.
[h=4]Tier 1 votes: 32 | Tier 2 votes: 23[/h]
The voting results for Roethlisberger have held steady over the past three summers, but he lost ground to the field in 2019 with Mahomes breaking out, Luck getting healthy and Rivers rising.
“Is he Tier 1?” an evaluator asked. “To me, no, but would I want him in one game over every other player who is not in Tier 1? Yes.”
While some opponents facing Roethlisberger fear he’ll play at a Tier 1 level that day, they did not think he has played at that level consistently enough to rank with the very best. They thought a Tier 1 Roethlisberger would have gotten Pittsburgh into the playoffs last season. Instead, a Ravens team with a rookie quarterback won the AFC North.
“He is getting older and cannot carry it like that anymore,” a defensive coordinator said. “They have to have a run game. He is a winner and he can throw the ball and he is great for them, but I just don’t know if you fear him every week because he doesn’t read coverages like the rest of them. Ben can beat you when he’s got help.”
Roethlisberger has thrown 43 interceptions over the past three seasons, tied with Cam Newton, Jameis Winston and Rivers for most in the league. Rivers brought down his total last season.
“After all those interceptions, Ben was like my Philip Rivers a couple years ago when Philip threw all those interceptions, and I knocked him down a little bit,” a secondary coach said.
Some voters questioned Roethlisberger’s leadership after a tumultuous offseason that saw the Steelers trade discontented receiver Antonio Brown. Others thought Pittsburgh would come out ahead, sacrificing on talent to gain on atmosphere.
“I have no problems with our quarterback calling our players out here in the building,” an evaluator said, “but to do it in public on that radio show, I can’t believe they allow that.”
[h=4]Tier 1 votes: 29 | Tier 2 votes: 26[/h]
This year marks the first time most voters placed Wilson in the top tier.
That might seem surprising given Wilson’s stats and championship pedigree, but Seattle has won so many games over the years with an elite defense and run-oriented offense that Wilson, for all his excellence, hasn’t had to win from the pocket as a passer consistently. That is typically how quarterbacks must win if their defense and/or ground game are lacking, and it’s usually a big part of earning a place in the top tier.
“What makes him unique is, with the game on the line, he can beat you, extend plays and do that,” a defensive coach with NFC West ties said. “But throughout the whole course of the game, they gotta keep the score down and they gotta run the ball.”
Seattle uses heavy doses of the ground game to reduce turnovers while emphasizing the explosive pass play, which Wilson has helped to maximize as one of the game’s great deep passers, whether or not he’s throwing on schedule.
“I remember seeing Wilson coming out of college and thinking, ‘Man, this guy is not going to be able to drop back from under center,’” an offensive coach said. “I was a young coach not realizing, ‘Hey, dumbass, you get to construct your offense around your players’ strengths.’”
The Seahawks have done that.
“I just think he keeps growing as a passer,” a veteran coach said. “He is playing with his hands tied a little bit, but I think he is going to find a way to win. He did that against us. He just kept making throws. He was the difference in the game, really.”
Wilson has a 4-14 record over the past three seasons when the opponent exceeded 24 points. Jared Goff (8-9), Matt Ryan (10-12), Brady (7-9), Brees (9-13), Rodgers (7-14) and Luck (5-11) have the highest winning percentages in those games over that span (minimum 15 games). Wilson did win a 38-31 shootout against Mahomes and the Chiefs last season.
“You give him a run game and a good defense, they have a great chance to win the Super Bowl, but he can win with whatever he’s got,” a former GM said. “I could see putting him as a 2, but to say he needs a run game is not fair. He does lift that bunch up where they are always in the hunt no matter what they do.” [HR][/HR][h=1]Tier 2[/h]
A Tier 2 quarterback can carry his team sometimes but not as consistently. He can handle pure passing situations in doses and/or possesses other dimensions that are special enough to elevate him above Tier 3. He has a hole or two in his game.
[h=4]Tier 1 votes: 13 | Tier 2 votes: 39 | Tier 3 votes: 3[/h]
Ryan got 13 top-tier votes, more than double the total for the rest of the second tier combined, but with the Falcons missing the playoffs four times in the past six years, most voters had a hard time pushing Ryan into the top tier. Some feel as though he’s prone to the costly turnover.
“Last year, their running game suffered when Devonta Freeman got hurt and their defense struggled, and he did not stand out, did not push them to another level,” a personnel director said. “That is why I put an asterisk next to him.”
Despite these perceptions, Ryan in 2018 posted the second-best totals of his career for completion percentage, touchdown passes, touchdown pass rate, yards per attempt, passer rating and adjusted net yards per attempt. He tied a career best for fewest interceptions in a season and set a career mark for lowest interception rate.
“I think Matt can carry the team and he is better than he maybe gets credit for,” a former GM said. “If you had to go in and didn’t have any run game and just had to throw it, you could win with Matt. He has evolved as a leader. He improved his game in terms of moving around, running when he had to. So, I think Matt is a 1.”
An offensive coordinator thought there was a case for Ryan as a 1, but he thought spotty performance in big games made the case less convincing.
“He was on his way to being a major one if Kyle Shanahan had stayed (as offensive coordinator),” a GM said. “The coordinator changes he has gone through have led to some inconsistencies. He has a chance now with Dirk Koetter. I’m not as scared of Ryan in pure pass, but when he gets going, he can carry a team.”
[h=4]Tier 1 votes: 5 | Tier 2 votes: 34 | Tier 3 votes: 16[/h]
A good chunk of voters think Wentz would be a 1 if knee and back injuries hadn’t forced his career to take a detour.
“He’s a 1,” an offensive coordinator said. “We played them; he made four to five throws I really did not think he could make. He has great confidence, great stature. Big arm. Competitive. He gets hit more than he should, but he played young and should grow out of that.”
Some dropped Wentz into the third tier this offseason simply because they weren’t sure he would recapture the form he showed before the knee injury.
“We have played him, and our head coach thinks the world of him, and I think he is a great player and a strong athlete,” a defensive coordinator said. “I just don’t know his ability to read it and have touch passes. He can throw hard balls in there, and he has a super-strong arm. I do not yet know if he has the touch and the feel to ascend.”
A GM said he would “give Wentz a 2 and hope” for better health. A QB coach noted that Wentz had been hurt at every level of football. A defensive coordinator said he thought the post-injury Wentz did not display the escapability that had differentiated him before.
“He is damn good and he can run, but he does not play with a calm to him yet,” a coach who studied the Eagles this offseason said. “He overreacts to things and is not smooth and poised like a guy who has done it a long time. He will get there.”
A personnel director used the term “Andrew Luck-ish” to describe a healthy Wentz.
An offensive coordinator noted that Wentz has benefited from a strong supporting cast. Quite a few voters thought Wentz could carry a team, but they didn’t think he had done it yet.
“Wentz just got paid, so if all of a sudden they are 7-9, it is going to be, wait a minute,” an evaluator said. “I hope this is not an RGIII situation, but because of the injuries, I think he needs to reconfigure how he plays.”
[h=4]Tier 1 votes: 1 | Tier 2 votes: 41 | Tier 3 votes: 13[/h]
“The top (QBs) usually make (other) guys better, and you just do not see that happening with him.”
Stafford’s average tier slipped from 1.7 last summer to 2.2 this time, as only one voter placed him in the top tier, down from 15 a year ago. Voters expressed disappointment that Stafford’s top-tier talent hasn’t translated to greater team success.
“He can do everything you want, but you are always waiting for everyone around him to get better, and usually what happens with the top guys, they make those guys better, and you just do not see that happening with him,” a defensive coordinator said. “I’m not saying it’s his fault. I do not know whose fault it is. But the good quarterbacks make the team better.”
The lone top-tier vote for Stafford came from a coach who was an easy grader overall. This coach blamed perpetually bad offensive line play for Stafford’s failure to elevate the Lions.
“I still think he’s a 2,” a GM said. “He has 1 talent, but 2 production. He hasn’t won as much as they had hoped, but I think they haven’t helped him a lot, either. Last year, they traded his best receiver. I just think he’s talented, I think he’s a competitor. He scares us.”
The Lions seem focused on developing a rushing attack. Could that help Stafford the way a dominant running game helped John Elway late in his career? Stafford is not Elway, but both were No. 1 overall picks known for their unusually gifted arms.
“If they get people in single-high (safety) against Matt all the time, he should flourish,” one voter said. “He can beat man coverage. He can make every throw, and guys (on defense) do not have time to get there because he can really throw it.”
[h=4]Tier 1 votes: 2 | Tier 2 votes: 36 | Tier 3 votes: 17[/h]
Watson moved more solidly into the second tier after his first full season as a starter. There was much to like — and a few concerns as well.
“He can get the ball to the right people, he leads his team, he makes all the guys around him better — I think the guy is legit,” an offensive coordinator said.
A defensive coordinator said Watson surprised him with his throwing ability.
“Their offensive line was a disaster; he had no chance. They had an injury at receiver, they did not have a front-line back, and I do not think they have a tight end that scares you,” a GM said. “(Watson) does a lot of that on his own, and maybe that is how he is at his best — off-schedule stuff. He is a guy who can win games for you when things are down.”
The way Watson played against the Colts in Houston’s 21-7 playoff loss and the body language he showed while struggling in that game hurt him among some voters.
“He’s a 2 that they treat like a 1, and it gets him in trouble,” a former head coach said. “He is a talented, talented guy, but their offense is kind of a freelance offense. I think he needs more structure. They are counting on him making plays.”
Was there any choice given the state of the offensive line?
“I thought he looked shell-shocked against the Colts,” a head coach said. “He makes unbelievable plays, but it is hard to really sustain when you are scrambling around that long. You don’t want to fault the guy for making that many off-schedule throws. I just think it is hard if you are not playing in rhythm. He has plays to be made in rhythm that he doesn’t make.”
A defensive coordinator offered a quick rebuttal to the idea that Watson doesn’t produce enough within the rhythm of the offense.
“Neither does Rodgers,” this coordinator said.
[h=4]Tier 1 votes: 1 | Tier 2 votes: 38 | Tier 3 votes: 16[/h]
Goff moved up seven spots and a full tier in the rankings from one year ago. The most common analysis says Goff makes spectacular throws from a clean pocket, but he struggles amid chaos and depends more than most on his play-caller putting him in position to succeed based on what the defense is showing before the snap.
“I like him a lot,” an offensive coordinator said. “He didn’t play as well as you’d like in the Super Bowl, so people are overreacting, but you watch his season, he makes some unbelievably good throws. He is the perfect guy for them. Definitely a 2.”
Nearly a third of voters placed Goff in the third tier.
“The couple games he had to carry it, he could not do it,” a defensive coordinator who faced the Rams said.
This coordinator and others thought Goff was highly dependent on coach Sean McVay’s presnap acumen in combination with Todd Gurley’s rushing. It’s the age-old question: How best to handle division of credit in a sport with so many dependent parts?
“Houston used to run a similar offense with Matt Schaub, and in play-action he was tough, but when you could get a lead on him and take the play-action out of it, you could kick the s— out of him. He was just a different guy,” a GM said. “I wonder if Goff is going to be similar to that. He is a better passer, though, and it is not just the system, because other guys have played in it.”
Goff’s numbers through 38 career starts line up closely with the 38-start production for Carson Wentz — same number of touchdown passes, one fewer interception, passer rating in the low 90s. Goff has the higher yards per attempt and adjusted yards per attempt.
“His coach was feeding him a lot of stuff from the sideline, which probably hurt them down the stretch,” a head coach said. “He would be a 2.5 guy for me. Against 90 percent of the teams in the league, he is probably a 2 or a 1, but against the tougher teams, where he has to rely on his ability to read, he is not quite there. Tight man coverage is tough, the blitz game can be tough, but he does a lot of things well.”
[h=4]Tier 2 votes: 30 | Tier 3 votes: 21 | Tier 4 votes: 4[/h]
Voters are betting on Mayfield even more enthusiastically than they bet on Watson and Jimmy Garoppolo one year ago, when those quarterbacks made their QB Tiers debuts after starting less than one full season. Voters think Mayfield has what it takes to reach the top tier.
“I put on the tape and watched his whole season, and I’m like: ‘OK, this guy is special. I see what all the fuss is about,’” an offensive coach said. “He can do everything — no limitations at all schematically. For him to take the next step, he has to be a little bit smarter with the football, which comes with experience. I think he will get there.”
No voters placed Mayfield in the top tier.
“He will be a 1, if not this coming season, the season after,” a coach with AFC North ties said. “His mentality is like the 1s. He can handle his s—. He can direct the traffic. He can handle personalities. It is not too big for him. He doesn’t have to overcome anything in the intangible area to play. It is just a matter of the timing and the footwork and those things to catch up to what he already is mentally, which is great.”
Mayfield got 30 votes in the second tier and 21 in the third. The four fourth-tier votes for Mayfield came from voters who thought there wasn’t enough information yet.
“I think Baker is a 2 with an arrow going up,” a coordinator said. “There is just not enough evidence right now to say he’ll be a 1 because I think he is going to be a high-risk, high-reward guy. If you look at their games, Freddie (Kitchens) did a good job, but they were both playing with house money. It’ll be interesting when people see him and prepare. It will be a different deal, but I really like him.”
Multiple voters were skeptical of the Browns, pointing to other “dream team” scenarios that failed to produce the desired results. But they liked Mayfield a lot.
“I like his moxie, and on tape, when we played him, he made some throws where I took notice,” a defensive coach said. “He made a throw in the back of the end zone — I think it was against Oakland — and I was like, ‘For a rookie, for him to even see that and have the confidence to make that throw, that was a good throw.’” [HR][/HR][h=1]Tier 3[/h]
A Tier 3 quarterback is a legitimate starter but needs a heavier running game and/or defense to win. A lower-volume passing offense makes his job easier.
[h=4]Tier 2 votes: 26 | Tier 3 votes: 27 | Tier 4 votes: 2[/h]
A season-ending shoulder injury contributed to Newton’s fall from the second tier even though the Panthers’ offense was cruising at a high level for much of the 2018 season.
“I don’t think he trusted his arm last season, and you could see it in the deep passing game,” a coordinator said.
Newton completed a career-low nine passes for a career-low one touchdown on throws traveling at least 20 yards past the line of scrimmage. He averaged 20 such completions with seven for touchdowns over the previous three seasons.
“When he is healthy and everything is going, I think he is a 1,” a personnel director said. “He changes how that team plays, but with the injury, he would be a 2 for me.”
Twenty-six voters agreed with the second-tier assessment. Twenty-seven placed Newton in the third tier, and two placed him in the fourth, mostly because of the injury concerns. Some in the league think Newton is a high 3 even when healthy.
“I think Cam does certain things really well, and then I think other things he does not do well,” a head coach said. “Can you make everybody around you better consistently? I don’t think he does that great right now. His leadership ability, he has not proven that to me.”
Another coach from a team with an established quarterback said he’d take Newton on his team “in a heartbeat,” in part because Newton, in his view, has driven success at every level.
“I think he still has the qualities to be a 1 if he’s healthy,” an offensive coach said.
While the deep ball was a problem for Newton in 2018, he completed a career-high 77 percent of his passes on throws traveling fewer than 10 yards past the line of scrimmage. That included a career-best 78 percent rate when targeting wide receivers, which means Christian McCaffrey’s receiving skills were not necessarily driving the improvement.
“Cam has good vision, knows what is happening out there, and, at least last season, I thought he was very accurate on the short throws,” a coordinator said. “He has to get back to throwing the deep ball or defenses are just going to sit on them. That should come if he is healthy.”
[h=4]Tier 2 votes: 16 | Tier 3 votes: 39[/h]
Most expect Cousins to fare better as the Vikings continue their shift toward an under-center offense similar to what he ran with Washington under Mike Shanahan. That transition began last season when Kevin Stefanski took over as offensive coordinator. Gary Kubiak’s arrival should only reinforce it, not that people in the league are buying the idea that Cousins is suddenly going to be dynamic.
“The world is going to pick Kirk Cousins over Case Keenum, but both are system guys to me,” a GM said. “I get concerned with him when it counts.”
Cousins has a 1-10-1 record over the past three seasons with one touchdown and three picks when taking over possession with one to five minutes left in regulation and his team needing a touchdown to tie or take the lead. That stat would seem to support the criticism of Cousins in crunch time, but Roethlisberger (0-9), Wentz (0-9) and Luck (1-10) haven’t won those games, either. The league as a whole wins only 15 percent of those games.
“He can throw the ball, and I think he’s good,” an exec said. “I question his makeup just a little bit. I’d probably leave him as a 2, but he has the innate ability to get everybody pissed at him. Kubiak will be great for him. He is the master of simplifying the complex.”
It’s important not to conflate what the Vikings paid for Cousins on the open market with what the Vikings and everyone else thought of Cousins as a player. Quarterbacks in the low-2 and upper-3 range can win if there’s enough defense and running game to support them.
“Good guy, smart, throws a good ball, knows how to get people lined up,” another head coach said, “but when there are 30 seconds to go in the game and you need a guy to make a play …”
[h=4]Tier 2 votes: 16 | Tier 3 votes: 38 | Tier 4 votes: 1[/h]
The voter most bullish on Prescott saw potential for the Cowboys’ starter to produce like a top-tier quarterback in 2019, his contract year.
“When they got Amari Cooper, he really ascended,” said the voter, a veteran personnel evaluator. “Throw in the O-line, the running back, they add (Randall) Cobb in the slot, and I think (Tier) 2 could be the low number. I could see them winning 12 or 13 games and having people come back next year saying, ‘Oh, maybe he is closer to a 1.’”
That was not the prevailing opinion.
“I just think when it comes down to it, his accuracy is going to limit him because those three to four throws a game you miss, they get you in the long run,” an offensive coordinator said.
Prescott, who had 13 touchdown passes against three interceptions when Cooper was on the field in 2018, polled almost exactly the same this summer compared to last, with about one-third of voters placing him in the second tier.
“I think he is the classic 3, a high 3, where he really needs people around him,” a GM said. “When they got the receiver, he was better. When the runner is rolling, he is better. Play-action is very important for him.”
That description is apt for so many quarterbacks. Prescott brings more to the table, with one coach calling him a great leader who is fearless.
“He is sturdy, he is tough, he doesn’t get hurt,” a GM said. “He has some ‘it’ factor to him. The 3 needs the good run game and strong defense. I think that’s Dak.”
[h=4]Tier 2 votes: 18 | Tier 3 votes: 32 | Tier 4 votes: 5[/h]
Foles drew 18 second-tier votes, which trailed only Newton (26) among players in the third tier. Some voters weren’t sure whether he was a great relief pitcher or a legitimate starter.
“He might be the greatest 4 of all time,” a GM joked.
A head coach said he thought the more Foles prepared, the worse he got. That seemed like a harsh assessment, but even Foles’ supporters agreed there was truth to the thinking. It wasn’t a criticism of Foles as much as it was a prescription for how to use him best.
“Foles was actually better at basketball than football, and there is almost a basketball mentality to how he plays,” an exec said. “He is real smart, but he is a little bit like Favre, where it’s just: Don’t make it too complicated. Let him play. Don’t give him a ton of things to think about. I think Foles can carry a team in the right situation, but he might be the ultimate relief pitcher.”
Two defensive coaches who faced the Eagles last season thought Foles was Philly’s best quarterback at the time.
“I respect the s— out of Foles,” one of these coaches said. “I would have rather played Carson Wentz last year. I just felt like Foles didn’t make the mistakes that Wentz made on film. I do not know if that was just Wentz coming off the ACL, but Foles is just confident, and I also thought he spread the ball around better.”
[h=4]Tier 2 votes: 15 | Tier 3 votes: 31 | Tier 4 votes: 9[/h]
Garoppolo’s latest injury knocked him from the bottom of the second tier deep into the third. The voters who liked his upside one year ago still liked his upside, but they weren’t as willing to bet on it until Garoppolo proved he had staying power.
“He is really accurate, he is smart and he is athletic, but he hasn’t played a lot of football, and you see it at times,” a GM said. “I just think he’s got everything if he can stay healthy. It sounds like he will have a better cast this year, and he’s got the coach.”
The impact Garoppolo made on the 49ers during the 2017 season still stood out to voters from teams that faced San Francisco at that time.
“We played them in 2017, and a little like (Sam) Darnold with the Jets, Baker (Mayfield) with the Browns, everybody was walking a little taller because he was there,” an exec said.
An offensive coordinator cited another game from 2017, when Garoppolo led a late comeback against the playoff-bound Titans.
“There was 1:10 left and they had no timeouts. They needed a field goal, and he took it right down the field,” this coordinator said. “He is accurate, and he has a strong-enough arm. He is mobile enough to make plays outside the pocket when he needs to. And in high-pressure situations, doing that against a playoff team, I said, ‘This guy has a chance.’”
OK, but what about the injuries?
“Injury does not mean he is worse,” a quarterbacks coach said. “His skills are the same. He needs to stay healthy and all those things will show.”
[h=4]Tier 2 votes: 6 | Tier 3 votes: 47 | Tier 4 votes: 2[/h]
Carr’s obvious talent made him a QB Tiers darling a few years ago, but a couple of rough seasons have changed perceptions, bringing to the foreground concerns that contributed to Carr slipping into the second round of the 2014 NFL Draft.
“It is tough when guys get stuck in bad situations,” a quarterbacks coach said. “Carr has 2 ability, but he is probably just a 3 right now.”
Carr inspired three voters to cite specific plays they had witnessed or heard about that they thought reflected poorly on Carr’s ability to lead the team.
“He is sensitive and needs encouragement, and that is not the style he is going to get,” an offensive coach said. “When someone shows disappointment in him, he shrinks. The head coach not coming out and completely endorsing him has to be eating him alive. When there is blame to be placed each week, it falls to the quarterback, and that is going to be a problem, so they had better hope they win or it’s going to be rocky for him.”
[h=4]Tier 2 votes: 9 | Tier 3 votes: 39 | Tier 4 votes: 6 | Tier 5 votes: 1[/h]
Flacco polled slightly higher this year than last, partly because some think the scheme fit in Denver could be good for him. Flacco enjoyed his finest statistical season in 2014, when Gary Kubiak was his offensive coordinator. Kubiak left Denver this offseason, but the Broncos’ new coordinator, Rich Scangarello, comes from the same coaching tree, via Kyle Shanahan. Scangarello spent the past two seasons coaching quarterbacks for the 49ers.
“Sometimes when you get a second opportunity or a new team, you go back to your peak, and I think Flacco is going to do that this year,” a defensive coordinator said.
A GM worried about the 34-year-old Flacco’s health, specifically a back injury.
“I have Flacco as a 3, but when hot, when he’s on, he is a 2,” this GM said. “He was a different player when his back was hurt. I know the coordinator there (Scangarello) has always been high on Flacco.”
Flacco is one of 16 quarterbacks with at least 60 starts over the past five seasons. He ranks last among them in yards per attempt, touchdown rate and yards per completion. Only Blake Bortles ranks lower in touchdown-to-interception ratio and passer rating. That is probably why one voter placed Flacco in the fifth tier. Most expect better.
“Another thing that is going to be good for Flacco is with (Mike) Munchak there (as offensive line coach); he is going to be well-protected,” an exec said. “One of the best things Munchak does is get the quarterback protected. That is an underrated thing.”
[h=4]Tier 2 votes: 1 | Tier 3 votes: 51 | Tier 4 votes: 3[/h]
Dalton got more Tier 3 votes than anyone (51), and it wasn’t very close.
“He is a (Tier) 3 365 days a year,” a defensive coordinator said. “Not bad, just is what he is.”
Dalton was at his best in 2015 when the Bengals were at their best from a talent standpoint.
“I was surprised how solid he seemed when I watched him last year,” a quarterbacks coach said.
A head coach compared Dalton to a streak shooter in basketball: hot and cold.
“I think there is hope in this new scheme that maybe that reinvigorates him,” an offensive coordinator said. “He is the classic jack-of-all-trades, maybe master of none. He is athletic but does not have great athleticism. He has a good arm but not a great arm. But in the right scheme, and you play good around him, there is nothing that he is lacking to get over the hump.”
Detractors can point to the Bengals’ playoff futility during the Dalton era, but it’s also true that because of injuries, the team’s offensive core — Dalton, Tyler Eifert, A.J. Green — hardly played together during those playoff games. A third-tier quarterback needs first-rate support.
“You love these hypotheticals,” an offensive coach said. “You say, ‘OK, take Andy Dalton and trade him with Russell Wilson early in their careers. What does that look like?’ We can’t do that, but that is what we are trying to get our mind wrapped around in this exercise. What does this guy look like with the pieces around him?”
[h=4]Tier 2 votes: 6 | Tier 3 votes: 41 | Tier 4 votes: 8[/h]
Winston entered the NFL as a turnover-prone quarterback, the kind who might benefit the most from a strong defense and ground game to facilitate a more conservative approach. Instead, the Buccaneers gave Winston the keys to their high-powered passing offense and asked him to win games for a roster that was lacking on defense, lacking in the run game and among the NFL’s very worst in the kicking game.
It has not always gone well. Now along comes new coach Bruce Arians, a proponent of offensive balance who is better known for pushing the ball down the field aggressively, which is what Tampa Bay has been doing already.
“It’s going to be interesting,” a GM said. “I think Jameis is the closest thing to Ben (Roethlisberger) in terms of similar playing style: a big dude who you try to sack and you fall off of him, can make some things happen off-script. Ben had great success with Bruce.”
Roethlisberger likewise suffered early in his career from some of the maturity and off-field concerns that have threatened to derail Winston. But Roethlisberger joined a Steelers team with a stout defense and strong leadership throughout the organization. He had played three seasons and won a Super Bowl by the time Arians became the Steelers’ coordinator.
“If they cannot protect Jameis, it is going to go very badly,” an offensive coordinator said. “I don’t think he is anywhere near the quarterback that Carson Palmer was when Bruce got Palmer, and you need that type of quarterback to run Bruce’s offense. When they were good in Pittsburgh, Ben could do all the empties and take the shots and get the ball out quick. Can Winston do that?”
A coordinator who has faced Winston multiple times called the quarterback “super careless” with the ball and not detailed enough to be a top quarterback.
“He is a low 3, but if something happened, half the teams in the league would take him,” this coordinator said.
[h=4]Tier 2 votes: 7 | Tier 3 votes: 38 | Tier 4 votes: 10[/h]
Manning keeps slipping in these rankings even though voters acknowledge the Giants’ offensive line has put him in a difficult position.
“I have a feeling Eli is going to do better than what people think,” a head coach said. “We can give him a 3 till he proves it, but I think he is more of a 2. Getting rid of that receiver (Odell Beckham Jr.) is a big thing. I think that guy was a (problem), but that is my own feeling.”
A defensive coordinator thought the Giants’ drafting of Daniel Jones in the first round could regenerate Manning mentally, making the team a candidate to surprise in 2019.
“I do agree he played OK at the end of the season, but I think he is a short-term 3,” a personnel director said. “Athletically, he is so limited at this point, but the cerebral part of it is there and there is enough arm there, and he will get it out quick.”
A short-term 3 is basically a 4 — a veteran who ideally would not start all 16 games. Ten voters put Manning in that fourth tier.
“Eli has ‘2’ moments, but if you are playing against a good pass rush and a good defense, he is greatly affected,” an offensive coordinator said.
Manning did complete 25 of 29 passes for 297 yards and two touchdowns against Houston early last season, but when I asked a coach to look at that game, he said the Giants were basically running under routes and running away from the Texans’ defensive leverage — a good plan but not necessarily great quarterbacking.
“If the pocket is clean and he can stand there and see the field, that is one thing,” this coach said. “When it is not, it’s tough. The top-tier guys can make it happen regardless.”
[h=4]Tier 2 votes: 6 | Tier 3 votes: 39 | Tier 4 votes: 10[/h]
While some voters expressed serious concerns about Trubisky’s outlook, reviews were generally more favorable than his No. 25 ranking might indicate.
“He has a really good arm, he can make the great throw, he is a good deep-ball thrower, he is not afraid to stand in the pocket, he’s not afraid of the noise of getting hit, which is a good sign,” an offensive coordinator said. “I just don’t think he really knows what’s going on yet.”
Much is made of Trubisky’s relative inexperience. He attempted 572 passes during his college career. That’s a small number, but it’s more than 2019 No. 1 overall pick Kyler Murray attempted (519). Trubisky now has 26 NFL starts. His 15-11 record in those games traces largely to Chicago allowing 17.4 points per game in those 26 outings, the lowest over the past two seasons for any quarterback with at least 10 starts during that time.
“He’s a 3, and I like what I see, but he is more in the Andy Dalton category to me,” a former GM said. “When you get to the playoffs and things get tough, I’m not sure. When he has to win the game for you, I’m not sure. You need the good run game, you need the receivers, you need the really good coach, you need the good defense.”
Six voters placed Trubisky in the second tier, while others wondered whether he had the accuracy and anticipation to ascend.
“Even though they have Khalil (Mack) and some high-juice guys, it is his team,” an offensive coordinator said of Trubisky. “That is how it appears from the outside, and talking to people there, he is an awesome guy. His production is not great, but I think he has the ability. I think he is going to get better. He has what you need in terms of leadership at that position.”
[h=4]Tier 2 votes: 2 | Tier 3 votes: 44 | Tier 4 votes: 9[/h]
Mariota enters his fifth-year option season facing two questions: Is he good enough to be a long-term starter? And can he get/stay healthy enough to play consistently? There’s more optimism regarding Mariota’s ability than his availability.
“I think they are looking for a guy next year,” a GM said. “Can’t stay healthy, I still question him in the pocket, a little disappointing.”
Another GM said he was concerned for Mariota’s career at this point even though Mariota owns one more start than Winston, one fewer than Roethlisberger and the same number as Rodgers since entering the league in 2015.
“He is like Lamar Jackson to me,” a secondary coach said. “The guy could be good if they have a really good defense and they run the ball. If one of those components is not there and he has to start throwing the ball, he can’t.”
Another defensive coach also questioned Mariota’s passing ability.
“I don’t think he is confident, and he doesn’t make the tight throws,” this coach said. “Against guys like him, I tell my guys, ‘If we make them drive the length of the field, they’ll f— it up. Just make him go the whole way.’”
Other defensive coaches respected Mariota’s dual-threat ability and said if they’re going to face a midtier quarterback, they’d prefer to face one without Mariota’s running ability.
“I feel like he can open up the game at any time,” a defensive coordinator said. “I still respect his ability to run. He has been hurt, and that might drop him down a little, but he can break away at any time. You change your whole game plan when you face those guys.”
[h=4]Tier 2 votes: 5 | Tier 3 votes: 37 | Tier 4 votes: 13[/h]
Darnold ranks a distant second to Mayfield among the first-round quarterbacks selected in 2018. Most voters were optimistic he would ascend this season.
“He moves better than you think, he’s got a really good arm, he’s accurate, he’s not nervous,” a head coach said. “I thought maybe he was nervous coming out of the draft. He is not nervous at all. He loves it. I think they got a good one there. I think that guy gives the Jets a chance moving forward when Brady retires in that division.”
Voters lauded Darnold’s makeup while calling him solid but unspectacular as a passer and needing work as a protector of the football.
“He has to fix his penchant for the turnovers,” a GM said. “He did it in college; he did it as a rookie. He is a great kid. He is really young. He has a chance to do it, but until he takes care of that issue, I think that will always haunt him a little bit.”
Darnold finished his rookie season with a 3.6 percent interception rate. That ranked 28th among 33 players with at least 200 attempts and was well above the 2.4 percent NFL average. The interception rate was 1.8 percent for the quarterbacks in Tier 1, 1.9 percent for the quarterbacks in Tier 2 and 2.2 percent for Darnold’s peers in Tier 3.
“I love him,” an offensive coordinator said. “He is a 3 that is going to be a 2, and if he learns not to turn the ball over, he will be a 1 at some point.”
Another offensive coach thought the blueprint new Jets head coach Adam Gase used to help reduce turnovers for Jay Cutler in Chicago could apply with Darnold initially. That is not to say anyone was comparing Darnold to Cutler otherwise.
“He has some special qualities,” a GM said of Darnold. “There is something about Sam. He makes you feel like you are going to win.” [HR][/HR][h=1]Tier 4[/h]
A Tier 4 quarterback could be an unproven player with some upside or a veteran who is ultimately best suited as a backup.
[h=4]Tier 2 votes: 1 | Tier 3 votes: 18 | Tier 4 votes: 34 | Tier 5 votes: 2[/h]
There are two kinds of Tier 4 quarterbacks: the veteran who ideally would not start all 16 games in a season (think Ryan Fitzpatrick), and the young player for which there simply is not enough evidence to make an evaluation (think Mahomes one year ago, when his résumé consisted of one start in a meaningless 2017 Week 17 game).
Jackson fits into the not-enough-evidence category. However, unlike with Mahomes last summer, a sizeable chunk of voters questioned whether Jackson could become a polished-enough passer for the Ravens to become contenders in the absence of a dominant defense and strong rushing attack. Some feared injuries would derail Jackson in the long term.
“I like Jackson,” a head coach said. “They built the offense around him, and he threw the ball a little better than they anticipated. There is a skill set to build around, and then he just needs to work really hard on the other stuff — sort of the way Alex Smith did in Kansas City when he became a much better deep passer.”
An offensive coordinator whose team faced Baltimore called Jackson a better runner than Colin Kaepernick but not nearly as good as a passer. Both quarterbacks had Greg Roman as their offensive coordinator, which voters thought was a good thing for Jackson. Coaches lauded Baltimore for completely changing its offensive style during the 2018 season to facilitate the change from Flacco to Jackson.
“My concern for Jackson is he was knocked out of games, playing only the last eight,” an evaluator said. “Still, I gave him a 3 instead of a 4 because he knows what he needs to work on. He said he needs to get better with his accuracy and seeing it quicker. It will be interesting to see if he can.”
One of the two voters who placed Jackson in the fifth tier called him a system-based quarterback in a system in which quarterbacks do not last long.
“I was high on Lamar coming out,” a personnel director said. “I think he’s a winner; he has the ‘it’ factor. It does not always show with his passing accuracy, but guys like Lamar who have the ability to electrify and bring their teammates together — that is a pretty cool deal.”
[h=4]Tier 3 votes: 18 | Tier 4 votes: 36 | Tier 5 votes: 1[/h]
NFL teams averaged nearly 100 expected points added on pass attempts last season. The Bills were one of four teams whose passing attempts actually produced negative EPA. Buffalo was 32nd in that category while ranking No. 2, behind Green Bay, in EPA via quarterback scrambles.
The extent to which Allen can bridge that gap between rushing and passing production will say much about how voters view him in the future, because for all the value a dual-threat quarterback can bring, there are times when teams need their quarterbacks to pass effectively in order to win, especially in the absence of strong defensive support.
“Having played them, he tries to beat you with his feet,” an evaluator said. “I felt they really believe in his toughness and his intangibles, and both the team and organization believe he gives them a chance to win, but the accuracy is going to be the question.”
Some voters saw Allen as Buffalo’s version of Cam Newton now that Carolina alums Sean McDermott and Brandon Beane are running the Bills. These voters also noted that Buffalo is building a smaller receiving corps than Newton had with the Panthers, a potential concern for a team whose quarterback has accuracy issues.
“I think he’s a 4 with the arrow definitely pointing up,” an exec said. “I think he has to be careful. He is not as talented as Deshaun Watson, but everyone thinks because he can throw the ball 80 yards, that is a good thing. He holds the ball too long, he is not a quick decision-maker, he relies on his feet, and I don’t know over the long haul if you can stay healthy doing that. Where he is in his career, if you try to make him a passer, I’m afraid he’ll struggle.”
[h=4]Tier 3 votes: 17 | Tier 4 votes: 33 | Tier 5 votes: 5[/h]
Two quarterbacks represent the Dolphins in this survey because it’s not yet clear which veteran will be their starter. There’s a good chance, it seems, that Fitzpatrick and Josh Rosen will start for the team at various points in 2019.
“Fitz is a 2 when he’s hot and a 5 when he’s not,” a quarterbacks coach said.
Fitzpatrick seems to be beloved by teammates and opponents alike for his freewheeling play. The veteran has a 4-6 starting record over the past two seasons even though his teams allowed 29.4 points per game in those outings, the highest figure for any of the 39 quarterbacks with at least 10 starts over that period. Of course, that works both ways, as Fitzpatrick’s looseness with the football put his defense in compromising situations.
“Fitzy is — I want to play against Fitz!” a head coach said. “He don’t give a s—. He goes in, tears it up and then just falls off the map. For a Harvard guy, he does some crazy s—.”
[h=4]Tier 2 votes: 2 | Tier 3 votes: 15 | Tier 4 votes: 28 | Tier 5 votes: 10[/h]
Washington might go with Dwayne Haskins as its starter, but Keenum makes the appearance here because rookies aren’t part of the survey.
Fifteen voters placed Keenum in the third tier, and when they did, sometimes I’d joke that they just placed him in the same tier as someone much more appealing. One voter had Wentz and Keenum in the third tier for vastly different reasons.
“A 3.0 is different from a 3.9,” this voter said, “but my reason for the 3 on Keenum is with the right coordinator, in the right system, Case Keenum can have a year like he had with Minnesota, and a lot of the 4s cannot do that. Wentz is a 2 who has fallen to a 3 because of the injuries, until he learns to stay healthy while using his mobility.”
[h=4]Tier 3 votes: 7 | Tier 4 votes: 47 | Tier 5 votes: 1[/h]
Rosen is not hated, despite his No. 32 ranking.
Voters felt the circumstances Rosen faced in Arizona were so dire that they could not be used as part of an evaluation. For that reason, voters almost reflexively placed Rosen in the fourth tier, citing a lack of information. Of course, if more voters had loved Rosen coming out of UCLA, or if Rosen had somehow been able to transcend his poor rookie circumstances, voters would have bumped him up.
“I saw him while watching some free-agent tape, and Arizona’s offensive line was maybe the worst I have seen in the nearly 20 years I’ve been in the league,” an offensive coach said. “I do not think any quarterback could have survived behind that line.”
A veteran offensive coach who has worked with many quarterbacks said he’d like a chance to work with Rosen. His plan would include telling Rosen to refrain from making any public comments regarding teammates or the team, especially negative comments, and instead to focus on letting his skills do the talking.
“When you talk to people who have been around Rosen, his ability to lead is the question,” a quarterbacks coach said.
A GM and multiple other voters said they had zero questions about Rosen’s ability to throw the ball.
“He can throw the ball,” an offensive coach said, “but you watch his games at UCLA, and when there is pressure, there (are) people around him, he really struggles to play quarterback. There are a lot of guys who can make it look pretty in a perfect situation.”
Welcome to my sixth annual Quarterback Tiers survey. As “QB Tiers” makes its debut on The Athletic after five years at ESPN, a short primer is in order.
Fifty-five NFL coaches and executives contributed to the survey this year by placing all veteran starting quarterbacks into one of five tiers and then offering insights into their thinking.
Tier 1 is reserved for the best, while Tier 5 is so poor that no starters received a majority of votes in that tier this year.
Once ballots were in, I averaged the results to create a ranking. The Green Bay Packers’ Aaron Rodgers commanded 53 Tier 1 votes and two Tier 2 votes, creating a 1.04 average that narrowly landed him atop the rankings despite a tumultuous 2018 season, generating a rich, lively discussion among voters. By proceeding past this introduction, you’ll enjoy a front-row seat for some of the most candid discussions among those voters — not just for Rodgers, but for all quarterbacks.
The rankings are not gospel. No single voter agrees with the final results exactly. There are quarterbacks I’d move higher or lower if filling out my own ballot. This is a composite look at what the league thinks of its quarterbacks and why.
I’ve defined each tier based on input collected over the years during hundreds of discussions with coaches and evaluators. Tier definitions are spelled out below, atop each section. Generally speaking, the better the tier, the less help the quarterback needs from his defense and running game to succeed. Every quarterback resides within the tier for which he received the most votes.
Only non-rookie starters were included, on the thinking that mixing rookies with veterans would create an apples-to-oranges dynamic.
The Miami Dolphins have two quarterbacks in this survey. Thirty teams are represented once. The Arizona Cardinals, with rookie Kyler Murray identified as the clear starter, are the only team not represented.
Away we go … [HR][/HR][h=1]Tier 1[/h]
A Tier 1 quarterback can carry his team each week. The team wins because of him. He expertly handles pure passing situations.
Rodgers has at least tied for the top spot six times in six years of QB Tiers balloting, but some voters were less enthusiastic this time around. Two even placed Rodgers in the second tier, the first time Rodgers received a second-tier vote since 2014, when he was coming off an injury.
“It was always Ted Thompson or Mike McCarthy’s fault, and when it gets to be two people’s fault, then you wonder,” a GM who nonetheless placed Rodgers in the top tier said. “You see the body language and then you realize the heroics come when there is nothing to lose.”
Those most critical of Rodgers raised concerns about him becoming less coachable, going for big plays instead of running the offense, failing to get Green Bay into the playoffs and losing some dynamism through cumulative injuries.
“Guys like Rodgers get canonized and put on a pedestal so high that it’s hard for the coach to keep up,” said a coach who placed Rodgers in the top tier. “Someone has to tell him, ‘Listen, if you do that again, I’m going to kick you right in the balls.”
A different coach had a different message for Rodgers: “Please, come to my team!”
The coach who thought legendary QBs sometimes need a figurative kick below the belt thought Brett Favre missed that type of hard coaching later in his career. Another veteran coach saw similarities among Rodgers, Dan Marino and Tony Romo later in their careers, suggesting all three became tougher to coach.
“Rodgers is a stud,” a veteran defensive coordinator pushed back. “That’s a bitch right there. It is never dead with Rodgers. He has eyes in the back of his head. Special.”
Another voter explained that “since we do not know what plays are called and we do not know what his audible ability is from the outside, I’m looking at this as who do you want on your team and who is hardest to defend by your definitions? Rodgers comes out tops on both.”
Another Rodgers defender said he charted all the catchable passes Rodgers delivered that were not caught through the bulk of last season. His conclusion: Rodgers’ incomplete passes were better than a lot of starters’ highlights.
“Debating whether Rodgers is in the top tier is the equivalent of asking whether LeBron James is the best basketball player,” a defensive backs coach said, “because he is just so gifted with some of his abilities, and there is no way you can say a Matt Ryan is better even though there could be some years statistically where a case can be made.”
The Packers obviously could have done more to support Rodgers. Some voters also thought Green Bay would benefit from offensive scheme changes.
“Rodgers is the only one that can do everything with the least talent,” a different defensive coordinator said. “Brady makes Tier 1 decisions but cannot carry the team in the same way. New England has the system and the running game. Put all the other quarterbacks on that (Packers) team and who do you think would succeed? Not many.”
Go ahead, take out the microscope and look for evidence Brady is declining as his age-42 season approaches.
“You can try to find something,” an exec said. “Brady is like Steph Curry. The first quarter might look like crap, but you’d better have a big lead because when it comes to nut-cutting time, he is going to make it happen.”
Some microscope wielders suggested Brady had a harder time throwing as consistently well on passes outside the numbers.
“That is what happens when you get so high up there — people pick for little holes,” a defensive coordinator said. “At the end of the day, would you like that guy running your team? Hell, yeah! You’d take him 16 out of 16 weeks.”
Better make that 19 out of 19 weeks, through the Super Bowl, in Brady’s case.
“They say the scheme protects him, but that is by game plan,” a defensive coach with AFC East experience said. “There are still heavy-pass game plans and plans that emphasize empty. The way they are set up, the QB has to function with a certain amount of skills. He accurately passes to all the eligibles from far hash to outside the numbers.”
Two pro personnel directors and a QB coach placed Brady in the second tier. A defensive coordinator dabbled with the idea. One of the personnel directors had only Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes in his top tier, with Andrew Luck, Ben Roethlisberger, Drew Brees, Philip Rivers, Russell Wilson and Brady in the second tier. Those QBs made the top-tier cut on most ballots, but if Rodgers and Mahomes were the only guys in the top tier, well, they’re the ones with the most elite talent.
“Brady is a 1, and I don’t know how you could argue it,” an offensive coordinator said. “People can be critical about his movement or whatever, but just look at the criteria: can carry his team each week, the team wins because of him, he handles pure pass situations and has no holes. Brady plays his best in the most critical situations. Anyone who doesn’t put him as a 1 is evaluating the wrong things.”
One last question: When might Brady decline?
“I don’t see a drop-off without a catastrophic injury or, like the great pitchers, if he loses his legs,” a defensive coach said. “I believe he is increasing his fitness. And then he has the best footwork, the best execution of the screen pass, and if you watch the cutups of his fakes, it is like a f—ing magic act. Beyond that, I’m not sure the game has seen a competitor that exceeds him.”
Brees commanded top-tier votes at a higher rate this year than last, but quite a few voters thought he belonged at the bottom of Tier 1. There was greater enthusiasm for Mahomes than for Brees among voters who placed both in the top tier, but Brees’ much longer track record gave him the benefit of the doubt with some.
“I like to think of the ones being so rare over the years — Peyton, Brady, Rodgers,” an offensive coordinator said. “Then you take a breath and you say it’s Brees, whoever else. Look, I’m president of the Drew Brees fan club, but last year, when the run game dried up a little, I felt he was not carrying them like he was before.”
Much of the praise for Brees comes with subtle qualifiers.
“Drew can carry his team in those pure passing situations,” a head coach said. “He is limited in certain throws he has to make on rhythm now, but I think you still have to give him a 1.”
A defensive coordinator called Brees a 1 for knowing what to do but a 2 from a physical standpoint.
“The system bails him out with the run game, the quick passing game and the play-action,” said this coordinator, who placed only Rodgers and Brady in his top tier. “I don’t think he can carry a team (without that). His quick decision-making makes him.”
The general feeling was that the case for Brees as a 1 was stronger than the case for Brees as a 2.
“I think Drew is a first-half-of-the-season 1, second-half-of-the-season 2,” an offensive coordinator said. “Watch how they play now. If they play a bad defense, they might throw for 500 yards (as it was against Cincinnati last season). They play a good defense, they are going to be conservative and try to win a close game, like against Baltimore last year.”
The Saints have become much better on defense and special teams over the past couple of seasons. They have a strong ground game. Brees will surely accept that support after spending several years propping up a team that was historically bad on defense in particular.
“They’ve got a lot around him, but he makes it all go,” a GM said. “When you say, ‘As a passer, can carry the team and do all that,’ he still does that.”
All voters agreed Mahomes played at a top-tier level in 2018, his first as the Chiefs’ full-time starter. The seven who placed Mahomes in the second tier said they wanted to see him do it again before granting him entry into the club that Rodgers and Brady headed for so long. It’s a tough crowd.
“He is as good as I’ve ever seen,” an exec who placed Mahomes in the top tier said. “I remember seeing that last game two years ago when he played against Denver, and I said, ‘Ho-lyyy s—!’ We just could not believe some of the throws he was making. It’s ridiculous, and he is only going to get better. How can you not give him a 1? Who is better right now? You would take him over any player in the league.”
Even voters who loved Mahomes coming out of college thought he would need more time to become an MVP candidate.
“I want to see him do it again when people study him and their offense,” another exec said, “but from what I’ve seen, he might end up being the best ever. He has got some of the best-ever superpowers.”
Playing in Andy Reid’s offense stocked with playmakers surely helped.
“You play for Andy Reid and you’re going to have numbers — to the point where what’s-his-name (Donovan McNabb) thinks he’s a Hall of Famer,” a former head coach said. “What Mahomes did was still amazing. I just don’t know if you can continue to play the way he plays and not have the big mistakes. He reminds me of Favre, and I think he’s going to end up having Favre moments.”
Favre had 19 touchdowns with 24 interceptions in his second season as a starter, back when defenders got their hands on the football much more frequently. Unlike Mahomes, Favre wasn’t close to achieving MVP status during his first full season in the lineup. Of course, if a Favre-like career is the floor for Mahomes, that seems quite acceptable.
“Mahomes hasn’t been scarred yet, so he don’t give a f—,” a head coach said. “That won’t change until he throws one of those across-the-field balls for a pick in the AFC Championship Game or he goes multiple years without playoff success like Peyton did for a while.”
Another head coach looked past the spectacular plays when evaluating Mahomes.
“The thing I was so impressed with: Yeah, he makes the spectacular play, but he is playing the position,” this head coach said. “He is seeing coverage, working through progressions. He is different than (Deshaun) Watson. He is making plays in rhythm when they are there, but then he is creating some of the most unbelievable off-schedule things I have ever seen in my life.”
Luck carried the Colts for years and paid a heavy price physically. An improved offensive line and a shift toward offensive balance and quicker passes made Luck’s job easier upon his return from shoulder surgery.
“I personally believe that Andrew Luck is a great quarterback,” a defensive backs coach said. “I really do, for leadership, intangibles, communication. He can throw all the balls, he is very accurate, he can see what is going on in front of him. He gets it done fast.”
Finally healthy, Luck polled better in this QB Tiers survey (1.28 average) than he had in any of them since 2015 (1.14).
“Andrew Luck’s accuracy is unbelievable,” a GM said. “He can put the ball anywhere.”
The fact that Luck missed the 2017 season and then had more help from his supporting cast upon his return led some voters to place him in the second tier instead of the first, pending additional evidence.
“He has to stay healthy,” a GM said, “and I don’t know if he really carries his team right now. I just need to see that more. Frank (Reich) did a great job of balance, and it helped Luck.”
Others think Luck can become the NFL’s best quarterback — or at least among the top three — even though the first tier is crowded and could welcome other up-and-comers soon.
“Mahomes and Luck are going to be battling for that mantel in the future because Luck is special,” a personnel director said. “I think Brady is No. 1 right now.”
The Chargers know Rivers, as the owner of a 208-game starting streak, will be in the lineup every week. Opposing defenses know Rivers will be in the same spot — right there in the pocket — on just about every pass play.
What has changed over the past two seasons is that Rivers, backed by an improved defense, has reduced the interceptions that dogged him in 2014 and 2016. Throwing 508 passes last season, Rivers’ lowest total since 2009, probably helped reduce chances for negative plays.
“Right when you have seen some age, it disappears,” a head coach said.
The knock on Rivers is he can’t create when plays break, but the way Rivers compensates makes him special, with one offensive coordinator calling Rivers’ field vision unbelievable.
“We play him this season, so I’ve been watching him, and he is just a conductor,” a defensive assistant said. “If you are a poor poker player and he has any sense of what you are in, he knows what to do, so it is all about disguise. You have to f— with him presnap or he will pick you apart.”
Some would like to see more from Rivers in the biggest games.
“Don’t get me wrong, I hate playing against the f—r, but I have him right there with Roethlisberger, just an inch below the top guys,” a defensive coordinator said. “(The Chargers) made the playoffs last year, but it’s almost like they are stuck right there.”
An evaluator used Rivers as a launching point to discuss the renaissance of the older Tier 1 QB, with so many 35-and-older starters producing at a high level. Improved conditioning and rule changes could be among the factors for the sustained success of Rivers, Brady, Brees and others. Rivers did seem to slow down late last season, but he was not alone.
“Of all the good QB play in 2018, my takeaway has been how, if I were starting a team right now, Rivers at 37 years old would be in the discussion if some of my other Tier 1 guys went before him,” this evaluator said.
The voting results for Roethlisberger have held steady over the past three summers, but he lost ground to the field in 2019 with Mahomes breaking out, Luck getting healthy and Rivers rising.
“Is he Tier 1?” an evaluator asked. “To me, no, but would I want him in one game over every other player who is not in Tier 1? Yes.”
While some opponents facing Roethlisberger fear he’ll play at a Tier 1 level that day, they did not think he has played at that level consistently enough to rank with the very best. They thought a Tier 1 Roethlisberger would have gotten Pittsburgh into the playoffs last season. Instead, a Ravens team with a rookie quarterback won the AFC North.
“He is getting older and cannot carry it like that anymore,” a defensive coordinator said. “They have to have a run game. He is a winner and he can throw the ball and he is great for them, but I just don’t know if you fear him every week because he doesn’t read coverages like the rest of them. Ben can beat you when he’s got help.”
Roethlisberger has thrown 43 interceptions over the past three seasons, tied with Cam Newton, Jameis Winston and Rivers for most in the league. Rivers brought down his total last season.
“After all those interceptions, Ben was like my Philip Rivers a couple years ago when Philip threw all those interceptions, and I knocked him down a little bit,” a secondary coach said.
Some voters questioned Roethlisberger’s leadership after a tumultuous offseason that saw the Steelers trade discontented receiver Antonio Brown. Others thought Pittsburgh would come out ahead, sacrificing on talent to gain on atmosphere.
“I have no problems with our quarterback calling our players out here in the building,” an evaluator said, “but to do it in public on that radio show, I can’t believe they allow that.”
This year marks the first time most voters placed Wilson in the top tier.
That might seem surprising given Wilson’s stats and championship pedigree, but Seattle has won so many games over the years with an elite defense and run-oriented offense that Wilson, for all his excellence, hasn’t had to win from the pocket as a passer consistently. That is typically how quarterbacks must win if their defense and/or ground game are lacking, and it’s usually a big part of earning a place in the top tier.
“What makes him unique is, with the game on the line, he can beat you, extend plays and do that,” a defensive coach with NFC West ties said. “But throughout the whole course of the game, they gotta keep the score down and they gotta run the ball.”
Seattle uses heavy doses of the ground game to reduce turnovers while emphasizing the explosive pass play, which Wilson has helped to maximize as one of the game’s great deep passers, whether or not he’s throwing on schedule.
“I remember seeing Wilson coming out of college and thinking, ‘Man, this guy is not going to be able to drop back from under center,’” an offensive coach said. “I was a young coach not realizing, ‘Hey, dumbass, you get to construct your offense around your players’ strengths.’”
The Seahawks have done that.
“I just think he keeps growing as a passer,” a veteran coach said. “He is playing with his hands tied a little bit, but I think he is going to find a way to win. He did that against us. He just kept making throws. He was the difference in the game, really.”
Wilson has a 4-14 record over the past three seasons when the opponent exceeded 24 points. Jared Goff (8-9), Matt Ryan (10-12), Brady (7-9), Brees (9-13), Rodgers (7-14) and Luck (5-11) have the highest winning percentages in those games over that span (minimum 15 games). Wilson did win a 38-31 shootout against Mahomes and the Chiefs last season.
“You give him a run game and a good defense, they have a great chance to win the Super Bowl, but he can win with whatever he’s got,” a former GM said. “I could see putting him as a 2, but to say he needs a run game is not fair. He does lift that bunch up where they are always in the hunt no matter what they do.” [HR][/HR][h=1]Tier 2[/h]
A Tier 2 quarterback can carry his team sometimes but not as consistently. He can handle pure passing situations in doses and/or possesses other dimensions that are special enough to elevate him above Tier 3. He has a hole or two in his game.
Ryan got 13 top-tier votes, more than double the total for the rest of the second tier combined, but with the Falcons missing the playoffs four times in the past six years, most voters had a hard time pushing Ryan into the top tier. Some feel as though he’s prone to the costly turnover.
“Last year, their running game suffered when Devonta Freeman got hurt and their defense struggled, and he did not stand out, did not push them to another level,” a personnel director said. “That is why I put an asterisk next to him.”
Despite these perceptions, Ryan in 2018 posted the second-best totals of his career for completion percentage, touchdown passes, touchdown pass rate, yards per attempt, passer rating and adjusted net yards per attempt. He tied a career best for fewest interceptions in a season and set a career mark for lowest interception rate.
“I think Matt can carry the team and he is better than he maybe gets credit for,” a former GM said. “If you had to go in and didn’t have any run game and just had to throw it, you could win with Matt. He has evolved as a leader. He improved his game in terms of moving around, running when he had to. So, I think Matt is a 1.”
An offensive coordinator thought there was a case for Ryan as a 1, but he thought spotty performance in big games made the case less convincing.
“He was on his way to being a major one if Kyle Shanahan had stayed (as offensive coordinator),” a GM said. “The coordinator changes he has gone through have led to some inconsistencies. He has a chance now with Dirk Koetter. I’m not as scared of Ryan in pure pass, but when he gets going, he can carry a team.”
A good chunk of voters think Wentz would be a 1 if knee and back injuries hadn’t forced his career to take a detour.
“He’s a 1,” an offensive coordinator said. “We played them; he made four to five throws I really did not think he could make. He has great confidence, great stature. Big arm. Competitive. He gets hit more than he should, but he played young and should grow out of that.”
Some dropped Wentz into the third tier this offseason simply because they weren’t sure he would recapture the form he showed before the knee injury.
“We have played him, and our head coach thinks the world of him, and I think he is a great player and a strong athlete,” a defensive coordinator said. “I just don’t know his ability to read it and have touch passes. He can throw hard balls in there, and he has a super-strong arm. I do not yet know if he has the touch and the feel to ascend.”
A GM said he would “give Wentz a 2 and hope” for better health. A QB coach noted that Wentz had been hurt at every level of football. A defensive coordinator said he thought the post-injury Wentz did not display the escapability that had differentiated him before.
“He is damn good and he can run, but he does not play with a calm to him yet,” a coach who studied the Eagles this offseason said. “He overreacts to things and is not smooth and poised like a guy who has done it a long time. He will get there.”
A personnel director used the term “Andrew Luck-ish” to describe a healthy Wentz.
An offensive coordinator noted that Wentz has benefited from a strong supporting cast. Quite a few voters thought Wentz could carry a team, but they didn’t think he had done it yet.
“Wentz just got paid, so if all of a sudden they are 7-9, it is going to be, wait a minute,” an evaluator said. “I hope this is not an RGIII situation, but because of the injuries, I think he needs to reconfigure how he plays.”
“The top (QBs) usually make (other) guys better, and you just do not see that happening with him.”
Stafford’s average tier slipped from 1.7 last summer to 2.2 this time, as only one voter placed him in the top tier, down from 15 a year ago. Voters expressed disappointment that Stafford’s top-tier talent hasn’t translated to greater team success.
“He can do everything you want, but you are always waiting for everyone around him to get better, and usually what happens with the top guys, they make those guys better, and you just do not see that happening with him,” a defensive coordinator said. “I’m not saying it’s his fault. I do not know whose fault it is. But the good quarterbacks make the team better.”
The lone top-tier vote for Stafford came from a coach who was an easy grader overall. This coach blamed perpetually bad offensive line play for Stafford’s failure to elevate the Lions.
“I still think he’s a 2,” a GM said. “He has 1 talent, but 2 production. He hasn’t won as much as they had hoped, but I think they haven’t helped him a lot, either. Last year, they traded his best receiver. I just think he’s talented, I think he’s a competitor. He scares us.”
The Lions seem focused on developing a rushing attack. Could that help Stafford the way a dominant running game helped John Elway late in his career? Stafford is not Elway, but both were No. 1 overall picks known for their unusually gifted arms.
“If they get people in single-high (safety) against Matt all the time, he should flourish,” one voter said. “He can beat man coverage. He can make every throw, and guys (on defense) do not have time to get there because he can really throw it.”
Watson moved more solidly into the second tier after his first full season as a starter. There was much to like — and a few concerns as well.
“He can get the ball to the right people, he leads his team, he makes all the guys around him better — I think the guy is legit,” an offensive coordinator said.
A defensive coordinator said Watson surprised him with his throwing ability.
“Their offensive line was a disaster; he had no chance. They had an injury at receiver, they did not have a front-line back, and I do not think they have a tight end that scares you,” a GM said. “(Watson) does a lot of that on his own, and maybe that is how he is at his best — off-schedule stuff. He is a guy who can win games for you when things are down.”
The way Watson played against the Colts in Houston’s 21-7 playoff loss and the body language he showed while struggling in that game hurt him among some voters.
“He’s a 2 that they treat like a 1, and it gets him in trouble,” a former head coach said. “He is a talented, talented guy, but their offense is kind of a freelance offense. I think he needs more structure. They are counting on him making plays.”
Was there any choice given the state of the offensive line?
“I thought he looked shell-shocked against the Colts,” a head coach said. “He makes unbelievable plays, but it is hard to really sustain when you are scrambling around that long. You don’t want to fault the guy for making that many off-schedule throws. I just think it is hard if you are not playing in rhythm. He has plays to be made in rhythm that he doesn’t make.”
A defensive coordinator offered a quick rebuttal to the idea that Watson doesn’t produce enough within the rhythm of the offense.
“Neither does Rodgers,” this coordinator said.
Goff moved up seven spots and a full tier in the rankings from one year ago. The most common analysis says Goff makes spectacular throws from a clean pocket, but he struggles amid chaos and depends more than most on his play-caller putting him in position to succeed based on what the defense is showing before the snap.
“I like him a lot,” an offensive coordinator said. “He didn’t play as well as you’d like in the Super Bowl, so people are overreacting, but you watch his season, he makes some unbelievably good throws. He is the perfect guy for them. Definitely a 2.”
Nearly a third of voters placed Goff in the third tier.
“The couple games he had to carry it, he could not do it,” a defensive coordinator who faced the Rams said.
This coordinator and others thought Goff was highly dependent on coach Sean McVay’s presnap acumen in combination with Todd Gurley’s rushing. It’s the age-old question: How best to handle division of credit in a sport with so many dependent parts?
“Houston used to run a similar offense with Matt Schaub, and in play-action he was tough, but when you could get a lead on him and take the play-action out of it, you could kick the s— out of him. He was just a different guy,” a GM said. “I wonder if Goff is going to be similar to that. He is a better passer, though, and it is not just the system, because other guys have played in it.”
Goff’s numbers through 38 career starts line up closely with the 38-start production for Carson Wentz — same number of touchdown passes, one fewer interception, passer rating in the low 90s. Goff has the higher yards per attempt and adjusted yards per attempt.
“His coach was feeding him a lot of stuff from the sideline, which probably hurt them down the stretch,” a head coach said. “He would be a 2.5 guy for me. Against 90 percent of the teams in the league, he is probably a 2 or a 1, but against the tougher teams, where he has to rely on his ability to read, he is not quite there. Tight man coverage is tough, the blitz game can be tough, but he does a lot of things well.”
Voters are betting on Mayfield even more enthusiastically than they bet on Watson and Jimmy Garoppolo one year ago, when those quarterbacks made their QB Tiers debuts after starting less than one full season. Voters think Mayfield has what it takes to reach the top tier.
“I put on the tape and watched his whole season, and I’m like: ‘OK, this guy is special. I see what all the fuss is about,’” an offensive coach said. “He can do everything — no limitations at all schematically. For him to take the next step, he has to be a little bit smarter with the football, which comes with experience. I think he will get there.”
No voters placed Mayfield in the top tier.
“He will be a 1, if not this coming season, the season after,” a coach with AFC North ties said. “His mentality is like the 1s. He can handle his s—. He can direct the traffic. He can handle personalities. It is not too big for him. He doesn’t have to overcome anything in the intangible area to play. It is just a matter of the timing and the footwork and those things to catch up to what he already is mentally, which is great.”
Mayfield got 30 votes in the second tier and 21 in the third. The four fourth-tier votes for Mayfield came from voters who thought there wasn’t enough information yet.
“I think Baker is a 2 with an arrow going up,” a coordinator said. “There is just not enough evidence right now to say he’ll be a 1 because I think he is going to be a high-risk, high-reward guy. If you look at their games, Freddie (Kitchens) did a good job, but they were both playing with house money. It’ll be interesting when people see him and prepare. It will be a different deal, but I really like him.”
Multiple voters were skeptical of the Browns, pointing to other “dream team” scenarios that failed to produce the desired results. But they liked Mayfield a lot.
“I like his moxie, and on tape, when we played him, he made some throws where I took notice,” a defensive coach said. “He made a throw in the back of the end zone — I think it was against Oakland — and I was like, ‘For a rookie, for him to even see that and have the confidence to make that throw, that was a good throw.’” [HR][/HR][h=1]Tier 3[/h]
A Tier 3 quarterback is a legitimate starter but needs a heavier running game and/or defense to win. A lower-volume passing offense makes his job easier.
A season-ending shoulder injury contributed to Newton’s fall from the second tier even though the Panthers’ offense was cruising at a high level for much of the 2018 season.
“I don’t think he trusted his arm last season, and you could see it in the deep passing game,” a coordinator said.
Newton completed a career-low nine passes for a career-low one touchdown on throws traveling at least 20 yards past the line of scrimmage. He averaged 20 such completions with seven for touchdowns over the previous three seasons.
“When he is healthy and everything is going, I think he is a 1,” a personnel director said. “He changes how that team plays, but with the injury, he would be a 2 for me.”
Twenty-six voters agreed with the second-tier assessment. Twenty-seven placed Newton in the third tier, and two placed him in the fourth, mostly because of the injury concerns. Some in the league think Newton is a high 3 even when healthy.
“I think Cam does certain things really well, and then I think other things he does not do well,” a head coach said. “Can you make everybody around you better consistently? I don’t think he does that great right now. His leadership ability, he has not proven that to me.”
Another coach from a team with an established quarterback said he’d take Newton on his team “in a heartbeat,” in part because Newton, in his view, has driven success at every level.
“I think he still has the qualities to be a 1 if he’s healthy,” an offensive coach said.
While the deep ball was a problem for Newton in 2018, he completed a career-high 77 percent of his passes on throws traveling fewer than 10 yards past the line of scrimmage. That included a career-best 78 percent rate when targeting wide receivers, which means Christian McCaffrey’s receiving skills were not necessarily driving the improvement.
“Cam has good vision, knows what is happening out there, and, at least last season, I thought he was very accurate on the short throws,” a coordinator said. “He has to get back to throwing the deep ball or defenses are just going to sit on them. That should come if he is healthy.”
Most expect Cousins to fare better as the Vikings continue their shift toward an under-center offense similar to what he ran with Washington under Mike Shanahan. That transition began last season when Kevin Stefanski took over as offensive coordinator. Gary Kubiak’s arrival should only reinforce it, not that people in the league are buying the idea that Cousins is suddenly going to be dynamic.
“The world is going to pick Kirk Cousins over Case Keenum, but both are system guys to me,” a GM said. “I get concerned with him when it counts.”
Cousins has a 1-10-1 record over the past three seasons with one touchdown and three picks when taking over possession with one to five minutes left in regulation and his team needing a touchdown to tie or take the lead. That stat would seem to support the criticism of Cousins in crunch time, but Roethlisberger (0-9), Wentz (0-9) and Luck (1-10) haven’t won those games, either. The league as a whole wins only 15 percent of those games.
“He can throw the ball, and I think he’s good,” an exec said. “I question his makeup just a little bit. I’d probably leave him as a 2, but he has the innate ability to get everybody pissed at him. Kubiak will be great for him. He is the master of simplifying the complex.”
It’s important not to conflate what the Vikings paid for Cousins on the open market with what the Vikings and everyone else thought of Cousins as a player. Quarterbacks in the low-2 and upper-3 range can win if there’s enough defense and running game to support them.
“Good guy, smart, throws a good ball, knows how to get people lined up,” another head coach said, “but when there are 30 seconds to go in the game and you need a guy to make a play …”
The voter most bullish on Prescott saw potential for the Cowboys’ starter to produce like a top-tier quarterback in 2019, his contract year.
“When they got Amari Cooper, he really ascended,” said the voter, a veteran personnel evaluator. “Throw in the O-line, the running back, they add (Randall) Cobb in the slot, and I think (Tier) 2 could be the low number. I could see them winning 12 or 13 games and having people come back next year saying, ‘Oh, maybe he is closer to a 1.’”
That was not the prevailing opinion.
“I just think when it comes down to it, his accuracy is going to limit him because those three to four throws a game you miss, they get you in the long run,” an offensive coordinator said.
Prescott, who had 13 touchdown passes against three interceptions when Cooper was on the field in 2018, polled almost exactly the same this summer compared to last, with about one-third of voters placing him in the second tier.
“I think he is the classic 3, a high 3, where he really needs people around him,” a GM said. “When they got the receiver, he was better. When the runner is rolling, he is better. Play-action is very important for him.”
That description is apt for so many quarterbacks. Prescott brings more to the table, with one coach calling him a great leader who is fearless.
“He is sturdy, he is tough, he doesn’t get hurt,” a GM said. “He has some ‘it’ factor to him. The 3 needs the good run game and strong defense. I think that’s Dak.”
Foles drew 18 second-tier votes, which trailed only Newton (26) among players in the third tier. Some voters weren’t sure whether he was a great relief pitcher or a legitimate starter.
“He might be the greatest 4 of all time,” a GM joked.
A head coach said he thought the more Foles prepared, the worse he got. That seemed like a harsh assessment, but even Foles’ supporters agreed there was truth to the thinking. It wasn’t a criticism of Foles as much as it was a prescription for how to use him best.
“Foles was actually better at basketball than football, and there is almost a basketball mentality to how he plays,” an exec said. “He is real smart, but he is a little bit like Favre, where it’s just: Don’t make it too complicated. Let him play. Don’t give him a ton of things to think about. I think Foles can carry a team in the right situation, but he might be the ultimate relief pitcher.”
Two defensive coaches who faced the Eagles last season thought Foles was Philly’s best quarterback at the time.
“I respect the s— out of Foles,” one of these coaches said. “I would have rather played Carson Wentz last year. I just felt like Foles didn’t make the mistakes that Wentz made on film. I do not know if that was just Wentz coming off the ACL, but Foles is just confident, and I also thought he spread the ball around better.”
Garoppolo’s latest injury knocked him from the bottom of the second tier deep into the third. The voters who liked his upside one year ago still liked his upside, but they weren’t as willing to bet on it until Garoppolo proved he had staying power.
“He is really accurate, he is smart and he is athletic, but he hasn’t played a lot of football, and you see it at times,” a GM said. “I just think he’s got everything if he can stay healthy. It sounds like he will have a better cast this year, and he’s got the coach.”
The impact Garoppolo made on the 49ers during the 2017 season still stood out to voters from teams that faced San Francisco at that time.
“We played them in 2017, and a little like (Sam) Darnold with the Jets, Baker (Mayfield) with the Browns, everybody was walking a little taller because he was there,” an exec said.
An offensive coordinator cited another game from 2017, when Garoppolo led a late comeback against the playoff-bound Titans.
“There was 1:10 left and they had no timeouts. They needed a field goal, and he took it right down the field,” this coordinator said. “He is accurate, and he has a strong-enough arm. He is mobile enough to make plays outside the pocket when he needs to. And in high-pressure situations, doing that against a playoff team, I said, ‘This guy has a chance.’”
OK, but what about the injuries?
“Injury does not mean he is worse,” a quarterbacks coach said. “His skills are the same. He needs to stay healthy and all those things will show.”
Carr’s obvious talent made him a QB Tiers darling a few years ago, but a couple of rough seasons have changed perceptions, bringing to the foreground concerns that contributed to Carr slipping into the second round of the 2014 NFL Draft.
“It is tough when guys get stuck in bad situations,” a quarterbacks coach said. “Carr has 2 ability, but he is probably just a 3 right now.”
Carr inspired three voters to cite specific plays they had witnessed or heard about that they thought reflected poorly on Carr’s ability to lead the team.
- Voter No. 1: “He throws one against the Chargers — fourth down, he threw the ball away, just gave them the ball. It was the darndest thing I’ve ever seen. I think that drives (Jon) Gruden crazy. And he misses way too many throws.”
- Voter No. 2: “Watch the last 2:30 of their game against Indy. He was just flinching in the pocket. (The Colts) were not even pressuring. It was like he had conceded the game.”
- Voter No. 3: “The Chiefs game, he throws a pick-six and the guy (Jared Cook) isn’t even running the route. It was, ‘What the f—?’”
“He is sensitive and needs encouragement, and that is not the style he is going to get,” an offensive coach said. “When someone shows disappointment in him, he shrinks. The head coach not coming out and completely endorsing him has to be eating him alive. When there is blame to be placed each week, it falls to the quarterback, and that is going to be a problem, so they had better hope they win or it’s going to be rocky for him.”
Flacco polled slightly higher this year than last, partly because some think the scheme fit in Denver could be good for him. Flacco enjoyed his finest statistical season in 2014, when Gary Kubiak was his offensive coordinator. Kubiak left Denver this offseason, but the Broncos’ new coordinator, Rich Scangarello, comes from the same coaching tree, via Kyle Shanahan. Scangarello spent the past two seasons coaching quarterbacks for the 49ers.
“Sometimes when you get a second opportunity or a new team, you go back to your peak, and I think Flacco is going to do that this year,” a defensive coordinator said.
A GM worried about the 34-year-old Flacco’s health, specifically a back injury.
“I have Flacco as a 3, but when hot, when he’s on, he is a 2,” this GM said. “He was a different player when his back was hurt. I know the coordinator there (Scangarello) has always been high on Flacco.”
Flacco is one of 16 quarterbacks with at least 60 starts over the past five seasons. He ranks last among them in yards per attempt, touchdown rate and yards per completion. Only Blake Bortles ranks lower in touchdown-to-interception ratio and passer rating. That is probably why one voter placed Flacco in the fifth tier. Most expect better.
“Another thing that is going to be good for Flacco is with (Mike) Munchak there (as offensive line coach); he is going to be well-protected,” an exec said. “One of the best things Munchak does is get the quarterback protected. That is an underrated thing.”
Dalton got more Tier 3 votes than anyone (51), and it wasn’t very close.
“He is a (Tier) 3 365 days a year,” a defensive coordinator said. “Not bad, just is what he is.”
Dalton was at his best in 2015 when the Bengals were at their best from a talent standpoint.
“I was surprised how solid he seemed when I watched him last year,” a quarterbacks coach said.
A head coach compared Dalton to a streak shooter in basketball: hot and cold.
“I think there is hope in this new scheme that maybe that reinvigorates him,” an offensive coordinator said. “He is the classic jack-of-all-trades, maybe master of none. He is athletic but does not have great athleticism. He has a good arm but not a great arm. But in the right scheme, and you play good around him, there is nothing that he is lacking to get over the hump.”
Detractors can point to the Bengals’ playoff futility during the Dalton era, but it’s also true that because of injuries, the team’s offensive core — Dalton, Tyler Eifert, A.J. Green — hardly played together during those playoff games. A third-tier quarterback needs first-rate support.
“You love these hypotheticals,” an offensive coach said. “You say, ‘OK, take Andy Dalton and trade him with Russell Wilson early in their careers. What does that look like?’ We can’t do that, but that is what we are trying to get our mind wrapped around in this exercise. What does this guy look like with the pieces around him?”
Winston entered the NFL as a turnover-prone quarterback, the kind who might benefit the most from a strong defense and ground game to facilitate a more conservative approach. Instead, the Buccaneers gave Winston the keys to their high-powered passing offense and asked him to win games for a roster that was lacking on defense, lacking in the run game and among the NFL’s very worst in the kicking game.
It has not always gone well. Now along comes new coach Bruce Arians, a proponent of offensive balance who is better known for pushing the ball down the field aggressively, which is what Tampa Bay has been doing already.
“It’s going to be interesting,” a GM said. “I think Jameis is the closest thing to Ben (Roethlisberger) in terms of similar playing style: a big dude who you try to sack and you fall off of him, can make some things happen off-script. Ben had great success with Bruce.”
Roethlisberger likewise suffered early in his career from some of the maturity and off-field concerns that have threatened to derail Winston. But Roethlisberger joined a Steelers team with a stout defense and strong leadership throughout the organization. He had played three seasons and won a Super Bowl by the time Arians became the Steelers’ coordinator.
“If they cannot protect Jameis, it is going to go very badly,” an offensive coordinator said. “I don’t think he is anywhere near the quarterback that Carson Palmer was when Bruce got Palmer, and you need that type of quarterback to run Bruce’s offense. When they were good in Pittsburgh, Ben could do all the empties and take the shots and get the ball out quick. Can Winston do that?”
A coordinator who has faced Winston multiple times called the quarterback “super careless” with the ball and not detailed enough to be a top quarterback.
“He is a low 3, but if something happened, half the teams in the league would take him,” this coordinator said.
Manning keeps slipping in these rankings even though voters acknowledge the Giants’ offensive line has put him in a difficult position.
“I have a feeling Eli is going to do better than what people think,” a head coach said. “We can give him a 3 till he proves it, but I think he is more of a 2. Getting rid of that receiver (Odell Beckham Jr.) is a big thing. I think that guy was a (problem), but that is my own feeling.”
A defensive coordinator thought the Giants’ drafting of Daniel Jones in the first round could regenerate Manning mentally, making the team a candidate to surprise in 2019.
“I do agree he played OK at the end of the season, but I think he is a short-term 3,” a personnel director said. “Athletically, he is so limited at this point, but the cerebral part of it is there and there is enough arm there, and he will get it out quick.”
A short-term 3 is basically a 4 — a veteran who ideally would not start all 16 games. Ten voters put Manning in that fourth tier.
“Eli has ‘2’ moments, but if you are playing against a good pass rush and a good defense, he is greatly affected,” an offensive coordinator said.
Manning did complete 25 of 29 passes for 297 yards and two touchdowns against Houston early last season, but when I asked a coach to look at that game, he said the Giants were basically running under routes and running away from the Texans’ defensive leverage — a good plan but not necessarily great quarterbacking.
“If the pocket is clean and he can stand there and see the field, that is one thing,” this coach said. “When it is not, it’s tough. The top-tier guys can make it happen regardless.”
While some voters expressed serious concerns about Trubisky’s outlook, reviews were generally more favorable than his No. 25 ranking might indicate.
“He has a really good arm, he can make the great throw, he is a good deep-ball thrower, he is not afraid to stand in the pocket, he’s not afraid of the noise of getting hit, which is a good sign,” an offensive coordinator said. “I just don’t think he really knows what’s going on yet.”
Much is made of Trubisky’s relative inexperience. He attempted 572 passes during his college career. That’s a small number, but it’s more than 2019 No. 1 overall pick Kyler Murray attempted (519). Trubisky now has 26 NFL starts. His 15-11 record in those games traces largely to Chicago allowing 17.4 points per game in those 26 outings, the lowest over the past two seasons for any quarterback with at least 10 starts during that time.
“He’s a 3, and I like what I see, but he is more in the Andy Dalton category to me,” a former GM said. “When you get to the playoffs and things get tough, I’m not sure. When he has to win the game for you, I’m not sure. You need the good run game, you need the receivers, you need the really good coach, you need the good defense.”
Six voters placed Trubisky in the second tier, while others wondered whether he had the accuracy and anticipation to ascend.
“Even though they have Khalil (Mack) and some high-juice guys, it is his team,” an offensive coordinator said of Trubisky. “That is how it appears from the outside, and talking to people there, he is an awesome guy. His production is not great, but I think he has the ability. I think he is going to get better. He has what you need in terms of leadership at that position.”
Mariota enters his fifth-year option season facing two questions: Is he good enough to be a long-term starter? And can he get/stay healthy enough to play consistently? There’s more optimism regarding Mariota’s ability than his availability.
“I think they are looking for a guy next year,” a GM said. “Can’t stay healthy, I still question him in the pocket, a little disappointing.”
Another GM said he was concerned for Mariota’s career at this point even though Mariota owns one more start than Winston, one fewer than Roethlisberger and the same number as Rodgers since entering the league in 2015.
“He is like Lamar Jackson to me,” a secondary coach said. “The guy could be good if they have a really good defense and they run the ball. If one of those components is not there and he has to start throwing the ball, he can’t.”
Another defensive coach also questioned Mariota’s passing ability.
“I don’t think he is confident, and he doesn’t make the tight throws,” this coach said. “Against guys like him, I tell my guys, ‘If we make them drive the length of the field, they’ll f— it up. Just make him go the whole way.’”
Other defensive coaches respected Mariota’s dual-threat ability and said if they’re going to face a midtier quarterback, they’d prefer to face one without Mariota’s running ability.
“I feel like he can open up the game at any time,” a defensive coordinator said. “I still respect his ability to run. He has been hurt, and that might drop him down a little, but he can break away at any time. You change your whole game plan when you face those guys.”
Darnold ranks a distant second to Mayfield among the first-round quarterbacks selected in 2018. Most voters were optimistic he would ascend this season.
“He moves better than you think, he’s got a really good arm, he’s accurate, he’s not nervous,” a head coach said. “I thought maybe he was nervous coming out of the draft. He is not nervous at all. He loves it. I think they got a good one there. I think that guy gives the Jets a chance moving forward when Brady retires in that division.”
Voters lauded Darnold’s makeup while calling him solid but unspectacular as a passer and needing work as a protector of the football.
“He has to fix his penchant for the turnovers,” a GM said. “He did it in college; he did it as a rookie. He is a great kid. He is really young. He has a chance to do it, but until he takes care of that issue, I think that will always haunt him a little bit.”
Darnold finished his rookie season with a 3.6 percent interception rate. That ranked 28th among 33 players with at least 200 attempts and was well above the 2.4 percent NFL average. The interception rate was 1.8 percent for the quarterbacks in Tier 1, 1.9 percent for the quarterbacks in Tier 2 and 2.2 percent for Darnold’s peers in Tier 3.
“I love him,” an offensive coordinator said. “He is a 3 that is going to be a 2, and if he learns not to turn the ball over, he will be a 1 at some point.”
Another offensive coach thought the blueprint new Jets head coach Adam Gase used to help reduce turnovers for Jay Cutler in Chicago could apply with Darnold initially. That is not to say anyone was comparing Darnold to Cutler otherwise.
“He has some special qualities,” a GM said of Darnold. “There is something about Sam. He makes you feel like you are going to win.” [HR][/HR][h=1]Tier 4[/h]
A Tier 4 quarterback could be an unproven player with some upside or a veteran who is ultimately best suited as a backup.
There are two kinds of Tier 4 quarterbacks: the veteran who ideally would not start all 16 games in a season (think Ryan Fitzpatrick), and the young player for which there simply is not enough evidence to make an evaluation (think Mahomes one year ago, when his résumé consisted of one start in a meaningless 2017 Week 17 game).
Jackson fits into the not-enough-evidence category. However, unlike with Mahomes last summer, a sizeable chunk of voters questioned whether Jackson could become a polished-enough passer for the Ravens to become contenders in the absence of a dominant defense and strong rushing attack. Some feared injuries would derail Jackson in the long term.
“I like Jackson,” a head coach said. “They built the offense around him, and he threw the ball a little better than they anticipated. There is a skill set to build around, and then he just needs to work really hard on the other stuff — sort of the way Alex Smith did in Kansas City when he became a much better deep passer.”
An offensive coordinator whose team faced Baltimore called Jackson a better runner than Colin Kaepernick but not nearly as good as a passer. Both quarterbacks had Greg Roman as their offensive coordinator, which voters thought was a good thing for Jackson. Coaches lauded Baltimore for completely changing its offensive style during the 2018 season to facilitate the change from Flacco to Jackson.
“My concern for Jackson is he was knocked out of games, playing only the last eight,” an evaluator said. “Still, I gave him a 3 instead of a 4 because he knows what he needs to work on. He said he needs to get better with his accuracy and seeing it quicker. It will be interesting to see if he can.”
One of the two voters who placed Jackson in the fifth tier called him a system-based quarterback in a system in which quarterbacks do not last long.
“I was high on Lamar coming out,” a personnel director said. “I think he’s a winner; he has the ‘it’ factor. It does not always show with his passing accuracy, but guys like Lamar who have the ability to electrify and bring their teammates together — that is a pretty cool deal.”
NFL teams averaged nearly 100 expected points added on pass attempts last season. The Bills were one of four teams whose passing attempts actually produced negative EPA. Buffalo was 32nd in that category while ranking No. 2, behind Green Bay, in EPA via quarterback scrambles.
The extent to which Allen can bridge that gap between rushing and passing production will say much about how voters view him in the future, because for all the value a dual-threat quarterback can bring, there are times when teams need their quarterbacks to pass effectively in order to win, especially in the absence of strong defensive support.
“Having played them, he tries to beat you with his feet,” an evaluator said. “I felt they really believe in his toughness and his intangibles, and both the team and organization believe he gives them a chance to win, but the accuracy is going to be the question.”
Some voters saw Allen as Buffalo’s version of Cam Newton now that Carolina alums Sean McDermott and Brandon Beane are running the Bills. These voters also noted that Buffalo is building a smaller receiving corps than Newton had with the Panthers, a potential concern for a team whose quarterback has accuracy issues.
“I think he’s a 4 with the arrow definitely pointing up,” an exec said. “I think he has to be careful. He is not as talented as Deshaun Watson, but everyone thinks because he can throw the ball 80 yards, that is a good thing. He holds the ball too long, he is not a quick decision-maker, he relies on his feet, and I don’t know over the long haul if you can stay healthy doing that. Where he is in his career, if you try to make him a passer, I’m afraid he’ll struggle.”
Two quarterbacks represent the Dolphins in this survey because it’s not yet clear which veteran will be their starter. There’s a good chance, it seems, that Fitzpatrick and Josh Rosen will start for the team at various points in 2019.
“Fitz is a 2 when he’s hot and a 5 when he’s not,” a quarterbacks coach said.
Fitzpatrick seems to be beloved by teammates and opponents alike for his freewheeling play. The veteran has a 4-6 starting record over the past two seasons even though his teams allowed 29.4 points per game in those outings, the highest figure for any of the 39 quarterbacks with at least 10 starts over that period. Of course, that works both ways, as Fitzpatrick’s looseness with the football put his defense in compromising situations.
“Fitzy is — I want to play against Fitz!” a head coach said. “He don’t give a s—. He goes in, tears it up and then just falls off the map. For a Harvard guy, he does some crazy s—.”
Washington might go with Dwayne Haskins as its starter, but Keenum makes the appearance here because rookies aren’t part of the survey.
Fifteen voters placed Keenum in the third tier, and when they did, sometimes I’d joke that they just placed him in the same tier as someone much more appealing. One voter had Wentz and Keenum in the third tier for vastly different reasons.
“A 3.0 is different from a 3.9,” this voter said, “but my reason for the 3 on Keenum is with the right coordinator, in the right system, Case Keenum can have a year like he had with Minnesota, and a lot of the 4s cannot do that. Wentz is a 2 who has fallen to a 3 because of the injuries, until he learns to stay healthy while using his mobility.”
Rosen is not hated, despite his No. 32 ranking.
Voters felt the circumstances Rosen faced in Arizona were so dire that they could not be used as part of an evaluation. For that reason, voters almost reflexively placed Rosen in the fourth tier, citing a lack of information. Of course, if more voters had loved Rosen coming out of UCLA, or if Rosen had somehow been able to transcend his poor rookie circumstances, voters would have bumped him up.
“I saw him while watching some free-agent tape, and Arizona’s offensive line was maybe the worst I have seen in the nearly 20 years I’ve been in the league,” an offensive coach said. “I do not think any quarterback could have survived behind that line.”
A veteran offensive coach who has worked with many quarterbacks said he’d like a chance to work with Rosen. His plan would include telling Rosen to refrain from making any public comments regarding teammates or the team, especially negative comments, and instead to focus on letting his skills do the talking.
“When you talk to people who have been around Rosen, his ability to lead is the question,” a quarterbacks coach said.
A GM and multiple other voters said they had zero questions about Rosen’s ability to throw the ball.
“He can throw the ball,” an offensive coach said, “but you watch his games at UCLA, and when there is pressure, there (are) people around him, he really struggles to play quarterback. There are a lot of guys who can make it look pretty in a perfect situation.”
