The Athletic: Inside the numbers - Crowning the 2018 NFL Most Valuable Player

Cotton

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By Ben Baldwin 2h ago

Last​ week, The​ Athletic writers Seth​ Keysor (Chiefs) and Deuce Windham (Saints) examined​ what the tape had to say about the Drew​​ Brees/Patrick Mahomes MVP race. In this piece, I’ll take a numbers-based approach as a complement, examining the broader field of MVP candidates before casting my Top 5 ballot. This isn’t to say that numbers are the only thing that matter (they aren’t!), but understanding which players have been most efficient on a per-play basis provides a useful way to frame the MVP conversation. The ground rules


Right off the bat, let’s eliminate anyone who doesn’t play quarterback. It’s 2018, the NFL is a passing league, and the word “valuable” is clearly stated in the name of the award. Don’t even think about it.

“But what about Todd Gurley or Aaron Donald?”

On run plays involving Todd Gurley, the Rams added 32 Expected Points through Week 15. On plays that Aaron Donald has been involved in, the number is 81 Expected Points. Jared Goff? 115 Expected Points, and he’s not even in the MVP discussion.

As long as the award has “valuable” in its name, it should go to a quarterback every single season (and, no, Adrian Peterson was not more valuable than the Tom Bradys and Peyton Mannings of the world in 2012). The numbers


Let’s start with a big table of some relevant numbers that we’ll base the rest of the discussion on:



This is somewhat subjective — as these things are — but these are the numbers I’ve been keeping my eye on throughout the season. In each category, I’ve bolded the top three players. For efficiency, these are the top three in a given measure (who has contributed the most?), and for situation, the three players in the worst situation by the measure (who has overcome the most?).

The efficiency measures:
  • EPA/play: the efficiency of plays a QB was involved in. I originally had a row for ESPN’s QBR but cut it because it was so similar to the EPA numbers.
  • Passing +/-: a QB’s completion percent relative to expected, given factors like depth of target and receiver separation, per NFL Next Gen Stats’ model.
The team context measures:
  • Pass Block Win Rate: ESPN’s measure of pass blocking obtained from Next Gen Stats (only the top 10 are listed, so “no rank” means outside of the top 10).
  • Defense EPA/play: it’s harder to win games with a bad defense.
Looking at the list above, we can already see a clear top four: Brees, Mahomes, Philip Rivers and Russell Wilson. Let’s start by eliminating other candidates I’ve seen in the discussion. Quarterbacks not in the discussion


We’ve already narrowed the field to quarterbacks. Before listing my top five, let’s run through some of the QBs who didn’t make the cut, along with the reasons for that.

Jared Goff and Ben Roethlisberger

These players aren’t similar to each other, but I’m grouping them together because they’re in extremely favorable situations in their own ways but aren’t excelling across statistical categories (neither is in the top 14 in Completion +/-). Goff and Roethlisberger both have talented offensive lines, while Goff is supported by the mad genius of Sean McVay, and Roethlisberger has two outstanding receiving targets, including surefire future Hall of Famer Antonio Brown. Given their situations, their production doesn’t quite do it. In addition, the Steelers look likely to miss the playoffs, and while that’s largely independent of what Roethlisberger has done this season (his early-season games against the Browns and Ravens didn’t help), I’m not sure someone who misses the playoffs should be in the discussion.

Aaron Rodgers

This one is easy. He’s completed about as many passes as should be expected, given factors like depth of target and receiver separation, per NFL Next Gen Stats’ model, hasn’t been efficient on a per-play basis, and his performance played a role in a midseason coach firing. Given that the Packers are top six in both Pass Block Win Rate (offensive line) and Pass Rush Win Rate (defensive line), it’s hard to make the argument that Rodgers is stuck on a team without surrounding talent. The Packers will also miss the playoffs despite playing the third-easiest schedule in the league, per Football Outsiders. Let’s cross him off the list.

Andrew Luck

Luck has thrown the ninth-easiest passes in the league and completes about as many as an average quarterback would be expected to, per NFL Next Gen Stats. An average quarterback would be expected to complete 66.7 percent of the passes Luck has attempted, and Luck has completed 67.2 percent. Luck’s high expected completion percentage is due in part to repeatedly having wide open receivers to throw to: Among players with 50 targets, Chester Rogers (68 targets) is No. 2 and Eric Ebron (104 targets) is No. 9 in largest separation from the defender at the time of the catch. Throw in T.Y. Hilton (114 targets) and the Colts’ offensive line investments, and Luck is in a very comfortable situation.

Despite these advantages, Luck only ranks No. 10 in EPA/play, and his team still hasn’t wrapped up a playoff berth despite playing the easiest schedule in the league through Week 15, per Football Outsiders. Luck’s return has made for a fun story, but he shouldn’t be in the conversation for MVP.

If anything, the dramatic improvement of the Colts’ defensive should give fans hope for the future of the team. If the Colts’ defense finishes ranked higher than their offense by DVOA, it would be the fourth time in five seasons. My top 5 ballot


5. Tom Brady

Brady has managed to keep their offense afloat with most of his receiving targets missing time, including Julian Edelman being suspended for four games, Rob Gronkowski being sidelined with injuries and not looking like his normal self when on the field, and Josh Gordon being in and out of the lineup. Yet despite all this, he’s managed to be No. 9 in EPA/play and put the team in position to earn a first-round bye. Matt Ryan might have been the choice here if his team hadn’t dropped out of playoff contention weeks ago.

4. Philip Rivers

Rivers’ season has been overshadowed by another passer in his own division. Starting with a 10-point loss to the Chiefs in Week 1, Rivers was largely an afterthought until he led a game-winning drive in Kansas City in Week 15. Rivers has had a great season in his own right, ranking No. 3 in EPA per play despite many of his favorite targets missing time, including Hunter Henry (torn ACL over offseason) and Melvin Gordon (still No. 2 on the team in targets despite missing four games).

Rivers might have ended up higher on this list if he’d led the Chargers to a victory over the Ravens on Saturday, which would have put Los Angeles in position to earn a first-round bye with the subsequent Chiefs loss in Seattle. But throwing an interception on the first play of the game and averaging fewer than five yards per pass attempt wasn’t enough to get the job done. The Antonio Gates fumble wasn’t Rivers’ fault, but a better day from Rivers could have prevented the Chargers from being in that situation.

3. Russell Wilson

After an offseason in which the team completely divested from the passing game — letting Paul Richardson and Jimmy Graham walk in free agency, spending its first-round pick on a running back, and not adding much in the way of receiving options — Wilson has somehow dragged Seattle’s offense into being an efficient unit, with his plays being No. 5 in EPA/play. Even more impressive is No. 2 rank in Completion +/-, where he trails only Drew Brees. Seattle’s scheme and lack of receiving talent forces Wilson to make very difficult throws — the third-hardest in the league — and he has completed 6.3 percentage points more of his passes than would be expected.

Wilson’s completion percentage by depth of target looks silly, being above average over virtually every target depth, and way above average on deep targets (figure from airyards.com):



In addition, of the candidates we’re looking at, only Mahomes has been saddled with a worse defense as measured by EPA/play. That Seattle will be going to the playoffs is a testament to Wilson’s greatness. However, his efficiency doesn’t quite match up to the top two candidates.

2. Drew Brees

This has probably been Brees’ best season, which is saying a lot. Here’s a look at the last decade of offense in New Orleans, where Brees’ dropbacks have been substantially above average every season:



However, this isn’t a career achievement award. What matters is what happened in 2018. And in 2018, Brees has been remarkable, with a Completion +/- that tops the league by a good margin. Brees has also made life easier on an offensive line that doesn’t rank in the top 10 in Pass Block Win Rate by consistently getting the ball out quickly: Brees has the fourth-fastest time to throw, per NFL Next Gen Stats.

Brees’ completion percentage is well above average at all depths of target up to 35 yards, where the vast majority of passes are thrown:



Relative to Mahomes, Brees’ argument for MVP comes down to maintaining similar efficiency with a worse supporting cast, both in terms of pass protection (as measured by ESPN’s pass blocking measure) and receiving weapons. Michael Thomas is outstanding, but the options after him don’t stack up to the combination of Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins (when available), and especially Travis Kelce. As Deuce Windham noted, six of the 10 receivers Brees has thrown touchdowns to this season are undrafted free agents. It’s hard not to watch Mahomes have the luxury of having a big reliable target like Kelce and wonder what Brees could do with someone similar.

1. Patrick Mahomes

Since Mahomes is the presumptive MVP, let’s look at the arguments against him first.

First, he’s surrounded an embarrassment of riches on offense, with Andy Reid’s playcalling, an offensive line that ranks No. 3 in Pass Block Win Rate and receiving talent all over the place. And while all of that is true, looking at previous Chiefs’ seasons, the offense has still reached never-before-seen heights with Mahomes taking over in 2018:



Between 2017 and 2018, the Chiefs went from a very good offense to one of the best the league has ever seen, and a great deal of the credit for that should go to the play of Mahomes.

The other argument against Mahomes is his relatively low placement in Completion +/-, where Mahomes ranks No. 13 to Brees’ No. 1. Watching the two quarterbacks, it’s not hard to understand why. While Mahomes regularly makes throws that few other quarterbacks could make, he also misses some throws that Brees consistently makes.

But ultimately, three factors sway me toward Mahomes. First, he plays in a what is probably the best division in football, with two other teams (the Chargers and Broncos) in the top 10 in DVOA through Week 15. Second, his defense is one of the worst in the league, meaning that the Chiefs’ chances of victory in any given game rest squarely on his shoulders. Finally, his week-to-week consistency has been remarkable. The Chiefs have played 15 games and in every single one, their offensive DVOA has been above average. Here’s what the EPA/dropback looks like (with thanks to Kevin Cole for the figure):



Mahomes’ consistent play has meant the Chiefs have a chance in every game they play, and most of the time, they’ve come out on top.

None of these arguments is bulletproof. Brees and Mahomes are the two most efficient quarterbacks in football, each on his way to No. 1 seed in his conference, and each has played at a high level all season. It’s a close race and largely comes down to personal preference: Do you prefer the candidate to creates magic out of nothing or the one who seemingly never misses a throw?

This would have been an easier choice if the Chiefs had won in Seattle on Sunday night, but I think Mahomes has still done just enough. Patrick Mahomes is my choice for the Most Valuable Player in 2018.
 

Chocolate Lab

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:towel
 

Cowboysrock55

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Don't really care. But Mahomes has basically lost every big prime time game he has had this year. He will probably win it but he hasn't exactly been clutch.
 

Cotton

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Don't really care. But Mahomes has basically lost every big prime time game he has had this year. He will probably win it but he hasn't exactly been clutch.
Given the defense he is having to play with, I'd say it's pretty damn impressive how many games they have won.
 

Cowboysrock55

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Given the defense he is having to play with, I'd say it's pretty damn impressive how many games they have won.
Yeah the Chiefs defense should be a lot better. They actually are one of the best pass rushing defenses in the NFL. Their secondary blows though. (Cue the classic Schmitty debate)

To an extent also though I think the style of offense they play also hurts their defense. The Chiefs play offense like their hair is on fire. Which means quick scores or quick punts. Not much rest for the defense and lots of possessions against. Their defense probably isn't as bad as the stats might tell you.
 
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