Bales - Breaking Down the ‘Boys: Cowboys-Only Mock Draft, Version 1.0

boozeman

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Breaking Down the ‘Boys: Cowboys-Only Mock Draft, Version 1.0




By Jonathan Bales
jonathan@thedctimes.com
11:19 am on April 8, 2013 |

Jonathan Bales is a special contributor to SportsDayDFW.com. He’s the founder of The DC Times and writes for DallasCowboys.com and the New York Times. He’s also the author of Fantasy Football for Smart People. He can be reached at jonathan@thedctimes.com.

You can follow him @TheCowboysTimes.

There are all sorts of ways to analyze the draft, from scouting reports to 32-team mock drafts to aggregate big boards. Today, I’m going to run through a Cowboys-specific mock draft—all six picks. Although I want it to be as accurate as possible, the primary goal here isn’t to accomplish the impossible and hit on all six selections. Rather, I simply want to provide one particular path the Cowboys could take in the 2013 NFL Draft, detailing the types of players they might seek, both in terms of position, talent level, and their fit with the team.

2013 Cowboys-Only Mock Draft

Round 1: Jonathan Cooper, G, UNC

Cooper was my choice for Dallas in my latest 32-team mock draft. In last week’s chat, I argued that Cooper and fellow guard Chance Warmack have to be considered the favorites to come to Dallas. Both are elite players and there’s a chance that they’ll be off of the board when the Cowboys are on the clock, but interior linemen tend to fall on draft day.

Here’s what I had to say about Cooper:

Cooper is hands down the best pulling guard I’ve ever studied. He’s listed at 6’3’’, 310 pounds, although there’s a good chance he weighs closer to his college playing weight of 300 or so. Cooper uses his “lean” frame to move with ease to the second level of defenses. He’s as agile as any interior lineman I’ve seen, dashing across the field and having the athleticism to move with linebackers. When Cooper is on the move, he’s at his best.

I think Cooper is a better fit and all-around superior prospect to Warmack, but the Cowboys should jump on either player if they fall.

Round 2: Terron Armstead, OT, Arkansas-Pine Bluff

At 306 pounds, Armstead stunned people at the 2013 Scouting Combine by running a 4.71 40-yard dash. He’s so athletic that some teams considered him as a tight end. From my scouting report:

I watched every snap for Armstead against Jackson State. As you’d expect, he dominated lesser competition. It’s always difficult to grade small-school players because they can often cover up their weaknesses with superior athleticism or strength. You see that at times with Armstead; he would often let rushers get into his chest and pop him back a little, but since he was so much bigger and stronger, he could absorb the blow even if he was flat-footed.

At the East-West Shrine game and Senior Bowl, Armstead performed well but struggled against bull rushes. He mirrors defenders really well—it’s rare for a speed-rusher to blow past him—but he doesn’t have the same advantage in strength to make up for poor technique against NFL-caliber competition.

Armstead would be an immediate upgrade over Doug Free at right tackle.

Round 3: Joseph Randle, RB, Oklahoma State

I profiled Randle on this site, labeling him a “poor man’s DeMarco Murray.”

Despite all of his success in college, you have to wonder if Randle can overcome his lack of long speed. He ran a 4.63 40-yard dash at the Combine and then followed that up with times between 4.54 and 4.63 at his Pro Day. Simply put, he’s not a burner.

We can discuss the importance of lateral quickness all day, but you can’t overlook the fact that running backs who have clocked in around Randle’s time have recorded about one-sixth the NFL production of those who ran as fast as Murray (4.41). That doesn’t mean Randle can’t possible succeed in the NFL, but the odds are against him. If the job of NFL teams is to maximize their chances of hitting on any given pick, it’s hard to justify using a mid-round selection on a lean running back with sub-par speed.

While I’d be happy with the first two selections of Cooper and Armstead, I think Randle would be a reach. I placed him here because I think the Cowboys could have interest in him, but there are better options on the table in the middle rounds. Either way, this is the area where you can expect the ‘Boys to target a running back.

Round 4: J.J. Wilcox, S, Georgia Southern

The Cowboys have met with Wilcox and he’d be an excellent addition to the roster. In the fourth round, it’s unlikely that you’ll find an immediate starter, so it’s generally best to maximize upside. Wilcox, who played just one year of safety at Georgia Southern, has an extremely high ceiling.

Wilcox has excellent size at 6-0, 213 pounds. He turned in a solid 40 time at 4.51 and a remarkable 4.09 short shuttle, showing why he was used at receiver for three seasons. As you’d expect, Wilcox is an outstanding athlete; he moves fluidly and shows excellent lateral quickness. Despite little experience at safety, Wilcox is a good tackler. He doesn’t wait for ball-carriers to reach him, but instead attacks the line and breaks down well in space.

Most analysts have Wilcox available in the fifth round, but I think he’s going to surprise people on draft day. Actually, I think it’s a coin flip as to whether or not he’ll even be available at this spot.

Round 5: Bennie Logan, DT, LSU

Logan is a 6-2, 309-pound defensive tackle who is well-regarded for his character and work ethic. He’s the “right kind of guy” that Jason Garrett emphasizes. And while defensive tackle perhaps isn’t an enormous need for 2013, the age of starters Jay Ratliff and Jason Hatcher means the Cowboys need to look to upgrade the position right now.

Round 6: Aaron Mellette, WR, Elon

Everyone seems to want the Cowboys to look for a small, shifty slot receiver to complement Miles Austin and Dez Bryant, but I think the team is more likely to search for a big, physical wideout who can play outside. Remember, Austin moves into the slot in three-receiver sets, and the ‘Boys could be in some trouble on the outside if he or Bryant get injured.

Mellette is a small-school prospect with enormous upside. He’s 6-3, 217 pounds with 4.45 speed, and he absolutely dominated during his time at Elon. Mellette totaled 97 receptions, 1,398 yards, and 18 touchdowns in 2012 alone. In my view, he compares favorably to St. Louis Rams wide receiver Brian Quick, who got drafted at No. 33 overall last season.
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Horrid.
 

Cowboysrock55

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Agree. Talk about homering out over 40 times at a position where 40 times have the least impact. As long as we have the fastest O-line in the NFL who cares if they can't line up and dominate the guy in front of them.
 

Plan9Misfit

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That draft sucks. Too many reaches on too many small school prospects.
 

boozeman

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And this comes from a guy that watches "film" and stuff.
 

Simpleton

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I like Randle, Logan and obviously Cooper, the rest are so so picks. I wouldn't call it horrid, although I'd definitely like to do better in the 2nd than a project OT.
 

boozeman

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God I really hope not. He is slow and not that big. I don't hate him but I wouldn't use a third round pick on a RB like that.
Yeah, he does not seem special in the least. Little to no burst or power. Bell would be my preference if I am picking a back in that range.
 
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