Archer: Running back moves show part of Cowboys' dilemma

Cotton

One-armed Knife Sharpener
Staff member
Joined
Apr 7, 2013
Messages
120,031
Running back moves show part of Cowboys' dilemma
February, 27, 2015

By Todd Archer | ESPNDallas.com

IRVING, Texas -- The dilemma the Dallas Cowboys are facing in trying to re-sign DeMarco Murray is playing out at different spots across the league.

Over the past few days running backs like DeAngelo Williams, Reggie Bush, Chris Johnson and Peyton Hillis have been released. Steven Jackson will officially be added to the list today.

Those names get added to the running back market in free agency, which gets added to a fairly decent crop of runners available, which gets added to a deep NFL draft class.

In the laws of supply and demand, there’s more supply, so the prices might be lower. Now, all it takes is for one team to make an extremely lucrative offer to alter the marketplace, but the Cowboys and any team looking for a running back will have to ask is how much more will they get for a younger Murray coming off an incredible season than they would for one of these more veteran backs at a cheaper price.

And this doesn’t take into account whether Adrian Peterson will be available.

But the point of this post isn’t to make running back-to-running back comparisons between Murray and those backs. It’s to point out the nature of the position. When it ends, it ends.

In 2011, the Carolina Panthers signed Williams to a five-year, $43 million deal that included a $16 million bonus. In 2013 they extended his deal another two years, guaranteed him more money while lowering his cap value.

Jackson signed a three-year, $12 million deal with the Atlanta Falcons in 2013. The Detroit Lions signed Bush to a four-year, $16 million deal in 2013. They didn’t play out their contracts.

As I’ve said before with Murray, what will matter most will be the money in the first three years. At 27, it’s reasonable to expect he has another three years left in him to play at a high level. What’s not reasonable to expect is another 1,845-yard season since that was never done before in franchise history.

What the Cowboys – or any team that might sign Murray should he hit the open market – is three years of quality production. The design of the contract will be for more years and more money but that’s only for cap purposes to help the team and make the deal seem larger than it really is.

In reality, most free-agent deals are designed to be three years. After the third year, teams want to have a get out of jail free card, which means when they cut a player they create cap room. The Falcons will get $3.75 million in room from Jackson. The Lions gained $1.7 million by cutting Bush.

Wherever and whenever Murray signs, there will come a day where he will be like Jackson, Bush, Williams, Johnson, and Hillis -- former stars with diminishing skills.
 

VA Cowboy

Brand New Member
Joined
Apr 8, 2013
Messages
4,710
It's a tricky situation. You definitely don't want to tie up big money in Murray only to see him start falling off in a year or two while having bypassed some of the top RB talent this year.

But on the flip side, if he stays healthy, you'd hate to give up the top RB in the league and watch him stay near the top in the league with another team for 3-4 more years and then have your rookie RB end up being another Felix Jones or Mendenhall or CJ Spiller, etc.

With the slew of quality backs coming out there will no doubt be at least a couple who will end up being consistent pro-bowlers. But making sure we end up with one of those in the 2nd or 3rd round instead of a dud is not a given. Not to mention finding one who can be in elite in all three phases - rushing, blocking and catching.

Obviously the trend is not to give a big 2nd contract to a 4-5 yr vet RB, and that a RB will decline by year 5-6. But everyone would've been crazy to have wanted to get rid of Emmitt after his 4th year following the '93 season.

I guess it still all goes back to the money. If the deal is right then I'm fine with keeping him, otherwise it makes sense not to tie up too much into him even if he is currently in his prime, especially since the odds aren't high that he can continue to carry the same load and be as productive as last year, not to mention trying to do that and stay healthy again.
 

Clay_Allison

Old Bastard
Joined
Apr 8, 2013
Messages
5,488
Problem with bringing back Murray is he coaching staff are bitches when it comes to trust. They will run the #1 back or nobody. We wondered all year why they didn't bring up Williams or even slightly increase Randle's workload. I don't know if any situation exists where we will be allowed to have a solid rushing attack in 2015. There's no one out there you can give 400 carries to, including Murray. And the coaching staff will consider trying to do it by committee too "scary". Plus, Garrett has his contract extension and he's probably itching to abandon the running game.
 

Genghis Khan

The worst version of myself
Joined
Apr 7, 2013
Messages
37,713
I think Murray plus one of the top rookie RBs would be ideal.
 

boozeman

28 Years And Counting...
Staff member
Joined
Apr 7, 2013
Messages
122,428
I think Murray plus one of the top rookie RBs would be ideal.
Doesn't have to be a "top" one either. This is a good class. Get a David Johnson, Buck Allen, Cameron Artis-Payne in the 3rd-5th area or Karlos Williams even later, we will be good.
 

ravidubey

DCC 4Life
Joined
Apr 7, 2013
Messages
20,203
Get a David Johnson,
He reminds me a lot of Murray, though Johnson looks to be more polished as a receiver and actually quicker in his fakes which is awesome considering he's a little bigger than Spray Tan.
 

Cowboysrock55

Super Moderator
Staff member
Joined
Apr 7, 2013
Messages
52,634
He reminds me a lot of Murray, though Johnson looks to be more polished as a receiver and actually quicker in his fakes which is awesome considering he's a little bigger than Spray Tan.
I really like him personally. I don't know if I'd draft him and sign Murray though. If we are going that route I'd rather sign a cheaper free agent RB, knowing that I'll probably want to get Johnson a lot of carries.
 

ravidubey

DCC 4Life
Joined
Apr 7, 2013
Messages
20,203
I really like him personally. I don't know if I'd draft him and sign Murray though. If we are going that route I'd rather sign a cheaper free agent RB, knowing that I'll probably want to get Johnson a lot of carries.
Maybe, but the beauty of that pairing would be the lack of a dropoff when one was out, and hopefully the ability to finish the season strong by keeping each other fresh.

I agree though that it seems redundant and a player like Duke Johnson instead would add a dimension of speed to what Murray already brings, but talent is talent.

Besides, we'll probably have to make a decision on Murray before the draft.

Say we keep him and Dave Johnson is available in the 3rd when Dallas is selecting... are you saying you pass?
 

Carp

DCC 4Life
Joined
Apr 7, 2013
Messages
15,127
First thing I do is ask who is Dave Johnson?
 

Cowboysrock55

Super Moderator
Staff member
Joined
Apr 7, 2013
Messages
52,634
Say we keep him and Dave Johnson is available in the 3rd when Dallas is selecting... are you saying you pass?
Depends who is available. The shelf life on RBs is so short. I don't want to waste years of a guy sitting on the bench. And I don't think 3-5 carries a game justifies a third round pick.
 

ravidubey

DCC 4Life
Joined
Apr 7, 2013
Messages
20,203
Depends who is available. The shelf life on RBs is so short. I don't want to waste years of a guy sitting on the bench. And I don't think 3-5 carries a game justifies a third round pick.
I say give him ten carries and several looks in the passing game. This is no John Randle, we're talking a physically tough runner with moves and deceptive speed.

The only thing close to a negative I see is he's so much like Murray that he won't represent much of a change of pace to the defense.

And of course I have no idea how good he is in pass protection.
 

Cowboysrock55

Super Moderator
Staff member
Joined
Apr 7, 2013
Messages
52,634
I say give him ten carries and several looks in the passing game. This is no John Randle, we're talking a physically tough runner with moves and deceptive speed.
It may be that I just don't trust our team to do that. But also if that's all he is his whole career, I'd say it is a waste of a third round pick. If you're signing Murray up for 4 more years, he's going to be around for the rookies entire contract.
 

ravidubey

DCC 4Life
Joined
Apr 7, 2013
Messages
20,203
It may be that I just don't trust our team to do that. But also if that's all he is his whole career, I'd say it is a waste of a third round pick. If you're signing Murray up for 4 more years, he's going to be around for the rookies entire contract.
You are investing in a running game, period, because that's who the Dallas Cowboys are. It's definitely worth a top player and a 3rd round pick.

I'd argue Murray had double the impact of any defensive player on the team last season. You can't put a price on the big plays he made, the yards and clock he chewed, and the pressure he put on the opposing defense. I don't want any dropoff from in 2015, in fact I actually want improvement in December, January, and maybe February.

That's going to take more than Murray.
 

Cowboysrock55

Super Moderator
Staff member
Joined
Apr 7, 2013
Messages
52,634
You are investing in a running game, period, because that's who the Dallas Cowboys are. It's definitely worth a top player and a 3rd round pick.

I'd argue Murray had double the impact of any defensive player on the team last season.
Well that probably speaks more to our lack of talent on defense then it does to what Murray brings to the table.
 
Top Bottom