Broaddus - 3 Questions: First Round Draft Grades; Trading Up & Down

boozeman

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3 Questions: First Round Draft Grades; Trading Up & Down

Posted 4 hours ago



Bryan Broaddus

Football Analyst/Scout


How many first round grades will the Cowboys have on their board in the draft?

Broaddus: What you need to know about these drafts is when a team sets their board, there are not 32 players in the first round. You work through the names and what ever number of players you give with first round grades, that’s your number. There comes a certain time in the draft where you run out of first round names that you have graded, depending on where you are picking.

For example, the Cowboys took Travis Frederick with the No. 31 selection in 2013, but he sat on their board in the second round. One of the all-time great value picks that this franchise ever made was when Jerry Jones took Jason Witten in the third round when he was the final player of 16 first round grades in that draft.

In all my years of working on the draft for various NFL teams, I have found that number tends to run between 16 to 18 names when it comes to first round grades. In 2012, the Cowboys had 15. In 2013, they had 18 names. In this upcoming draft, I believe that number will fall between 19 to 22 names depending on how they view these receivers, quarterbacks and defensive line.

What you count on is that some teams ahead of you will take players that you do not have first round grades on, thus driving players in your direction. The more “Wow” picks you get ahead of you, the better chance you have to grab one of your first round graded players or think about trading back.


On the Draft Chart, if you trade up, at what point do the picks become more expensive?

Broaddus: With the Cowboys holding the 16th selection in this draft, that pick is worth 870 points. Say to go to the Rams who are sitting at No.13, you would need to make up about 90 points.

Ideally, you would like to just flip them a fourth and go on your way, but you are most likely going to have to overpay with your third, which is in the neighborhood of 125 points. Now if you want to get ahead of the Giants, to maybe grab Aaron Donald, Detroit might be your spot.


The Lions are sitting at No. 10, but their front office doesn’t believe there are 10 elite players in this draft, so maybe they are willing to bail to 16. Their selection is roughly worth 1050 points, so with that thought you would surly over pay with your second round pick.

With their willingness to bail, you might get them to give you back their own third, or you can see if the straight three would do it. The numbers tell me that if you didn’t want to part with that second, a third and fourth would get it done. The cleanest deal going forward would be to go to Minnesota at No. 8 and just give them your second round pick to select your player.

What if Jerry Jones decides to bail out of his spot at 16?

Broaddus: My first thought is never trade away from a great player, but this front office was able to pull it off quite nicely in 2013. So, lets start by going to Kansas City at No. 23. They overpay with their second round pick, so most likely, you can ask for the second and work a possible swap of your third to make up the difference.
Under that trade, it would give you three selections in the top 55. If you go to San Diego at No. 25, you are talking just a straight second. New Orleans at No. 27, you are looking at a second and a fourth. New England at No. 29 or San Francisco at No. 30, you should ask for a two and a three.
 

jsmith6919

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This is all speculation as Broaddus is using the other 31 teams trade value and not Jerry's super-secret trade value chart
 

NoDak

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One of the all-time great value picks that this franchise ever made was when Jerry Jones took Jason Witten in the third round when he was the final player of 16 first round grades in that draft.
Getting Witten in the 3rd was incredibly lucky. Especially if you try to decipher our thought process leading up to it. Yeah, Newman was the first round pick. Argue that it was a bad pick or whatever, but it's safe to say Witten was not a consideration at that pick. Where it gets stupid is in the 2nd round. We picked C Al Johnson there. Huh? If we're supposed to believe Witten had a first round grade, are we to believe Johnson had a higher grade so he was chosen over Witten? Or were we ignorant and passed up a guy we had rated as a first rounder to make a need pick? (ding) Either way you look at it, it was horrific. Grading the trained pig that high, or passing a first round grade to take him. Ugh.

Witten was a stroke of luck, nothing more. Trying to give credit to Parcells or Jerry for taking him is retarded. Look no further than Al Johnson as to why.
 

Smitty

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It's not retarded, they still took him when all 32 teams passed on him multiple times.

It was definitely a stroke of luck, but you should still get credit for identifying him as a good pick.
 

ravidubey

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Look no further than Al Johnson as to why.
Parcells proved to be just as vulnerable as any coach when it came to reaching for immediate need vs. building for the long haul. I'm sure Jerry was inclined to be conciliatory after foisting Newman on Bill in the first round.

But I'm leaning towards the scouts getting it horribly wrong since the same scouting department also presumably evaluated Solomon Page, Jacob Rogers, James Marten, Robert Brewster, and David Arkin.

Unless it's a clear first round or otherwise highly regarded player (like Flozell, Gurode, Tyron, and Frederick) our team can't seem to draft them and definitely can't groom them. Doug Free, the closest thing to a groomed player, has been terrible at times.
 

Clay_Allison

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Getting Witten in the 3rd was incredibly lucky. Especially if you try to decipher our thought process leading up to it. Yeah, Newman was the first round pick. Argue that it was a bad pick or whatever, but it's safe to say Witten was not a consideration at that pick. Where it gets stupid is in the 2nd round. We picked C Al Johnson there. Huh? If we're supposed to believe Witten had a first round grade, are we to believe Johnson had a higher grade so he was chosen over Witten? Or were we ignorant and passed up a guy we had rated as a first rounder to make a need pick? (ding) Either way you look at it, it was horrific. Grading the trained pig that high, or passing a first round grade to take him. Ugh.

Witten was a stroke of luck, nothing more. Trying to give credit to Parcells or Jerry for taking him is retarded. Look no further than Al Johnson as to why.
Even worse. It was a need pick for a need we didn't have. We still had Gurode on the roster, but Parcells didn't even know he was a center because he didn't do his homework on the roster.
 

ravidubey

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Even worse. It was a need pick for a need we didn't have. We still had Gurode on the roster, but Parcells didn't even know he was a center because he didn't do his homework on the roster.
The mission at the time was to make Andre a guard. Either way there was a need for an interior lineman.

Biggest irony was that Jerry Jones of all people from the start thought Gurode should be a center.
 

Smitty

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Amazing if Parcells was so horrible how, with Jerry Jones at the helm, we've had two decades of the arrow pointed straight down, except for when Parcells was here.
 

NoDak

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Amazing if Parcells was so horrible how, with Jerry Jones at the helm, we've had two decades of the arrow pointed straight down, except for when Parcells was here.
Who is saying Parcells was "so horrible"? Or anything even close to that? Everybody to a man here gives him credit for building up our roster from the crap we had before him. All that was mentioned was getting lucky that Witten fell to us after we passed on him in the 2nd round even though we had a first round grade on him.

Does it make you feel better to grossly exaggerate things thinking you won't look so stupid running to his defense every time the Parcells signal is activated?
 

Clay_Allison

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The mission at the time was to make Andre a guard. Either way there was a need for an interior lineman.

Biggest irony was that Jerry Jones of all people from the start thought Gurode should be a center.
Offensive line busts unfortunately were the main reason we never went anywhere with the core Parcells built. We hit on as many quality players in that area as anyone but we couldn't overcome not hitting on any of Johnson, Rogers or Peterman.

Also I don't think Parcells planned to use Gurode at all. He was such an afterthought they didn't even have him starting in 05 when our interior line was Rivera, Johnson and Larry Allen in steep decline. Parcells probably didn't want to compromise on having the center make the protection calls, since Gurode couldn't do that.
 

ravidubey

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Also I don't think Parcells planned to use Gurode at all. He was such an afterthought they didn't even have him starting in 05 when our interior line was Rivera, Johnson and Larry Allen in steep decline. Parcells probably didn't want to compromise on having the center make the protection calls, since Gurode couldn't do that.
I'm not sure. Parcells recognized talent, and in the first Parcells "A Football Life" he's miked up telling Gurode something like "I won't let you fail, Andre". Parcells also discovered Torrin Tucker's bad influence was the next biggest obstacle for Gurode next to being out of position.

By 2006 with Tucker gone Gurode was as good a center as I've ever seen play in Dallas (FAR better than Mark Stepnoski). It might seem like hyperbole but he made very few mental mistakes and had the size and power to dominate whoever was facing him. He frustrated Albert Haynesworth so much that the jackass ended up kicking Gurode in the head with his cleats when his helmet flew off during a play.
 

Clay_Allison

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I'm not sure. Parcells recognized talent, and in the first Parcells "A Football Life" he's miked up telling Gurode something like "I won't let you fail, Andre". Parcells also discovered Torrin Tucker's bad influence was the next biggest obstacle for Gurode next to being out of position.

By 2006 with Tucker gone Gurode was as good a center as I've ever seen play in Dallas (FAR better than Mark Stepnoski). It might seem like hyperbole but he made very few mental mistakes and had the size and power to dominate whoever was facing him. He frustrated Albert Haynesworth so much that the jackass ended up kicking Gurode in the head with his cleats when his helmet flew off during a play.
I agree with you on Gurode vs. Stepnoski. I never have liked small centers, they get dominated any time you stick a big nose tackle on them.
 

Smitty

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Stepnoski made more than a handful of Pro Bowls and was on the All-Decade team. I think he's getting undersold. I don't think anyone was "far" better than him.
 

dallas0593

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Stepnoski made more than a handful of Pro Bowls and was on the All-Decade team. I think he's getting undersold. I don't think anyone was "far" better than him.
I agree, Step used superior technique and leverage to beat his opponent, not strength and size. The times he was beaten are far and few between compared to some of the larger centers of today, including Gurode.
 

p1_

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Stepnoski made more than a handful of Pro Bowls and was on the All-Decade team. I think he's getting undersold. I don't think anyone was "far" better than him.
You're right, but Step had some real talent around him too. Between Step and Gurode, I choose Step.
 

data

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"What if Step had Barry's OL? Huh?! HUH?!? He wouldn't be so good then."
 
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