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Greg Cosell’s mock draft: Picks 1-16
By Greg Cosell | Shutdown Corner – Mon, Apr 22, 2013 10:20 AM EDT
Here’s picks 1-16 in my mock draft, you can see picks 17-32 here. The parameters I presented for those selections still apply. One other point: I don’t place grades on players based on the round in which I believe they should be selected. I project players to the NFL and then look at team needs. If a player I feel transitions well to the NFL fits a given team, then, as far as I’m concerned, that’s a good pick. If you're looking for quarterbacks, you won't find any first-rounders in this mock draft.
1. Kansas City Chiefs: My pick here is Central Michigan OT Eric Fisher. He and Texas A&M's Luke Joeckel have very similar skills, but I like Fisher a little more. The Alex Smith trade was the impetus for this selection. Andy Reid acquired Smith to solidify the quarterback position. Smith is an efficient, system player who does not turn the ball over. The objective was not to lose games because of your quarterback. That’s the Smith factor. It makes little sense to make that trade, structure your offense that way, and then not address your OL, especially when you have Jamal Charles in the backfield.
2. Jacksonville Jaguars: The next best player on the board is Luke Joeckel. And it just so happens to be at a position of serious need for the Jaguars. As of this writing, they do not have a RT. Right now, their quarterbacks are Blaine Gabbert and Chad Henne. Neither can function without a high quality OL. Just like Fisher, the strength of Joeckel’s game is repetitive execution more than elite athleticism and movement. What always stood out watching Joeckel (and Fisher) on tape was he never seemed to be off balance. He was comfortable, composed and economical on every play. Joeckel is a smoother mover than Jake Long when he came out of Michigan as the No. 1 overall pick, but not as naturally fluid as Ryan Clady, who was the 12[SUP]th[/SUP] pick in the same 2008 draft.
3. Oakland Raiders: This selection is easy. It’s defensive tackle Shariff Floyd of Florida, one of my favorite players to evaluate on tape. Forget about the fact the Raiders do not have a starting quality DT on their present roster. Floyd is worthy under any circumstances. You talk to outstanding defensive tackles like Warren Sapp, and they talk about hips. Floyd has very loose hips. He’s lively and limber, with great balance and body control. He played both through and around blocks. He’s what a tackle-for-loss DT, disruptive with an explosive closing burst. He transitions best as a classic 3-technique in a four-man line, but he would be equally effective as a DE in 1-gap 3-4 front.
4. Philadelphia Eagles: This is where the most intriguing defensive player comes off the board. That’s Oregon DE/OLB Dion Jordan. I was fortunate to be on the field at the scouting combine, and to watch this 6-foot-6, 250-pounder move was a revelation. He looked like a wide receiver. On film, he was naturally athletic, very smooth and fluid, and surprisingly explosive given his length. At Oregon this past season, he primarily played in space, which he did exceptionally well. I had to study a lot of games to get a feel for his pass rush skills. They were impressive, and I believe he will become a very good edge rusher in the NFL. He showed the ability to get low and bend the edge with the needed flexibility to succeed against quality NFL offensive tackles. There’s much to like about Jordan, and he’s just scratching the surface. Want a comparison? How about Jason Taylor.
5. Detroit Lions: What is a greater position of need for the Lions – OT or CB? Which of those two positions has the higher rated player? For me, it’s OT. My pick is Oklahoma LT Lane Johnson, who is still a work in progress due to his lack of experience at the position, but he improved steadily in 2012. He has all the traits you look for in an NFL LT: he’s light on his feet, agile, a natural knee-bender, has long arms, and he’s competitive. He plays LT, Riley Reiff is your RT, and you are set at the position for years. Your franchise quarterback, Matthew Stafford, will be well protected.
6. Cleveland Browns: I’m selecting Notre Dame TE Tyler Eifert. Conventional wisdom says TE is not a position you take in the top ten. Two tight ends have been taken in the top ten since 2004, both at No. 6: Kellen Winslow (2004) and Vernon Davis (2006). I have written extensively about the increased value of the “Joker” TE in today’s NFL, and have talked to many defensive coordinators who have told me that matching up to “12” personnel (one back, two tight ends, and two wide receivers) is a problem. Eifert is the most athletic TE in this draft class. I saw him split outside the numbers many times, and beat corners on vertical routes. Two things to keep in mind: Rob Chudzinski was the offensive coordinator in Cleveland in 2007 when Winslow had 82 catches for 1,106 yards (the Browns won the AFC North that season), and new OC Norv Turner is a master at utilizing the TE, most recently Antonio Gates, but you can go all the way back to Jay Novacek with the Cowboys in the early 1990s.
7. Arizona Cardinals: West Virginia WR Tavon Austin. Most know at this point how I feel about Austin. Here’s how I described him in a previous column:
He aligned all over the formation, including in the backfield, and possesses an extraordinary combination of flash quickness, lateral explosion, stop and start acceleration and top end speed. He’s a live wire with the ball in his hands: shifty, elusive and unpredictable, with the ability to turn routine plays into impact, game changing masterpieces.
Now think about new head coach Bruce Arians. Last year in Indianapolis, he had rookie T.Y. Hilton, at 5-foot-9 and 183 pounds. Hilton played 61 percent of the Colts' snaps, had 861 receiving yards and seven touchdowns. In addition, he averaged almost 12 yards per punt return, with another touchdown. Prior to that with the Steelers, Arians featured 5-foot-10, 186-pound Antonio Brown. In 2011, Arians' last year in Pittsburgh, Brown had 69 catches for 1,108 yards. Austin is more versatile, and more explosive than both Brown and Hilton.
8. Buffalo Bills: LSU DE/OLB Barkevious Mingo makes perfect sense for the Bills. They do not have a pass rusher at linebacker, and new defensive coordinator Mike Pettine, formerly of the Jets, feature scheme multiplicity with athletic players who can align in different spots. Mingo flashed explosive traits and the kind of closing speed you cannot teach. He’s a work in progress since he did not show elite body flexibility, with the ability to bend the edge. He needs an NFL weight room. But you put on the Clemson tape, and you see the burst and speed that can impact games.
9. New York Jets: The pick here is my No. 1 guard in the draft, North Carolina's Jonathan Cooper. As I mentioned with Floyd, Cooper was also one of my favorite players to evaluate. He was as athletic as any guard I can remember studying. He had remarkably light feet for a 310-pound man, with such ease of movement. As a puller in the run game, he had extraordinary balance and body control. His best trait is his tenacious competitiveness, with a nasty streak. He looked to initiate contact whenever possible. He is the kind of player who will be a tempo setter for an offensive line. Everybody is focusing on defense with the Jets, but their offense is worse than poor, and in my mock, Cooper is the best player available.
10. Tennessee Titans: The next best offensive guard on the board is Alabama's Chance Warmack. The Titans are trying to manage and manipulate an erratic Jake Locker with a consistent running game. That’s why they signed Shonn Greene to complement Chris Johnson, and underrated OG Andy Levitre. Warmack is an outstanding prospect, with excellent core strength and a powerful lower body. Overall, he showed a desirable combination of size, strength and athleticism. What stood out for a man with his squatty build was his movement in space, his ability to strike a moving target with balance and body control. In addition, he had unyielding anchor strength in pass protection. Warmack and Cooper: two of the best OG prospects we have seen in recent years.
11. San Diego Chargers: The best combination of size, speed and athleticism at linebacker in this draft is Georgia's Alec Ogletree. He has no athletic limitations -- he’s field-fast with sideline-to-sideline range and speed. He consistently showed explosive traits both as a run defender and in pass coverage. The concern is play recognition, or what most refer to as instincts. He needs to become quicker and more decisive with his reactions, especially in the run game. There were times he was too hesitant. But the bottom line is Ogletree is long and athletic with outstanding movement, a classic run-and-chase linebacker in a game increasingly defined by the passing game.
12. Miami Dolphins: Here’s where my top corner comes of the board. That would be D.J. Hayden of Houston. He’s the most physically gifted corner in this draft class. As I wrote in a recent column, Hayden has the most complete and impressive combination of sudden movement, change of direction, the ability to play both press man and off coverage zone, a challenging and competitive playing temperament, and as an added dimension, his willingness to support in the run game with aggression. No corner has a more fluid and compact backpedal, with balance, body control and the quickest feet of any prospect in the draft.
13. New York Jets: My pick is Georgia OLB Jarvis Jones, who is the most ready of all the potential 3-4 outside linebackers in this draft. Ignore the 40-yard dash time. Put on the tape. Jones is a fluid athlete with sudden movement and quick change of direction. He showed body flexibility as a pass rusher, with excellent closing speed. I also liked his ability to transition from speed to power as a pass rusher. He got underneath the pads of bigger OL, and drove them back into the quarterback. He reminded me of Terrell Suggs, another player who ran a supposedly slow 40 when he came out of Arizona State. Remember, Rex Ryan was in Baltimore for the first six years of Suggs’ career.
14. Carolina Panthers: Again, you have a team with a glaring need at a specific position, and a terrific prospect who can fill the void. Missouri defensive tackle Sheldon Richardson, along with Sharrif Floyd, is one of the two most athletic interior defensive linemen in this draft. What I saw when I watched his tape was initial quickness, active and light feet, strong and at times violent hands, and outstanding overall athleticism. There was a sudden and explosive element to his game; he was quick in everything he did. And I loved his effort and competitiveness. He made many plays in pursuit, showing the kind of range you don’t normally see from defensive tackles. Like Floyd, he transitions best to the NFL as a one gap “3 technique” with dominant traits, and the potential to be a disruptive penetrator and double digit sacker.
15. New Orleans Saints: My pick here is Utah defensive tackle Star Lotulelei. Lotulelei, based on overall skills, could have easily been selected higher in my mock. He has an impressive combination of size, strength, athleticism and competitiveness. He has light feet, ease of movement, strong hands. There were times I conjured up the word nimble to describe Star’s movement. He isn't explosive in the same manner as Shariff Floyd or Sheldon Richardson, but Lotulelei was stronger with the ability to shoot his hands with power. He’s not a true inside pass rusher, but he has the attributes to develop into an effective rusher due to his athleticism and strength. In an ideal Rob Ryan defense, which places a premium on position and scheme versatility, Lotulelei is a perfect fit.
16. St. Louis Rams: Who will run the ball for the Rams? How about Alabama running back Eddie Lacy? St. Louis can't play effective offense without a consistent running game. I don’t do discussions of “value.” Those philosophical conversations don’t have any meaning for coaches in the middle of the season when they are trying to win games. There are three backs in this draft who are foundation/feature backs: Eddie Lacy, Le’veon Bell and possibly Montee Ball. Lacy is easily the best of the three, and without question, one of the 20 best players in this draft. He’s my pick for the Rams. He’s a decisive and powerful downhill runner with deceptively quick feet and short area burst. He can move the chains consistently and can be effective in confined space. The only question with Lacy: Does he have the mentality to be a foundation back? He did not truly fill that role for Alabama. There’s no question, however, he has the physical attributes. By the way, I’d rather have Lacy and DJ Swearinger than Kenny Vaccaro and Bell.
Here’s Part One of my mock draft: picks 1-16. A little explanation is in order before I begin. I chose players based on my film study and evaluations, and then factored in my sense of team needs. I have no idea what different teams' draft boards look like, nor will I speculate what they might be. I didn’t do a study of each organization, and how they have drafted in previous years. I didn’t analyze general managers, personnel directors and coaches to ascertain a profile or template that speaks to their draft patterns.
I’m certain there will be significant discrepancies between what you have seen from many analysts and my mock draft. The point of my mock is not to be right, i.e., to predict which players are selected by particular teams. My main objective is to further discuss the players I have evaluated highly by placing them in a draft format. It’s simple as that. So please, don’t look at my mock and reflexively say, that won’t happen. You know that, I know that, but that misses the point.
One other caveat: I am disregarding documented off-field transgressions, character concerns, potential medical problems that might impact draft position, anything that is not a function of on-field play. I understand that teams significantly factor those into the equation, but again each team weighs those differently, and I am not in the speculation or guesswork business. So I am basing my player evaluations solely on the tape. That’s what I do. I watch tape, and I love it.
Here's picks 17 through 32; you can read picks 1-16 here.
17. Pittsburgh Steelers: The pick is Alabama cornerback Dee Milliner, my No. 2 rated corner. Milliner is a comfortable press man corner with smooth balance and body control. In Alabama’s defense, he often aligned to the boundary, or the short side of the field. He was very aggressive as a run defender, and he was an aggressive blitzer. He reminded me of Stephon Gilmore coming out of South Carolina a year ago. In an era in which wide receivers are trending bigger, the 6-foot, 201 pound Milliner provides the size that’s increasingly demanded. Remember, the Steelers play Cincinnati, Baltimore and Cleveland each twice. They must match up to bigger receivers with AJ Green, Torrey Smith and Josh Gordon. Milliner can do that. He’s both short-area quick, with excellent change of direction and transition, and fast enough to run vertically. And in Nick Saban and Kirby Smart’s Crimson Tide defense, he has extensive experience with multiple coverage concepts.
18. Dallas Cowboys: Do the Cowboys have a healthy starting safety on their roster? Here’s where extreme need intersects with talent, and an outstanding prospect: Safety Kenny Vaccaro of Texas. Vaccaro is 6-foot, 215 pounds. That’s very good size for the position. He’s a smooth athlete with excellent movement skills. Not only did he display the ability to play man-to-man versus wide receivers, he also was utilized as a deep safety, both in single high coverage and two deep shells. In those situations, he was both fluid and active in coverage, and aggressive playing downhill in the run game. He always pressed to the ball, and demonstrated sideline-to-sideline range with outstanding play speed and a reckless attitude. He showed explosion as a tackler with natural pop. Overall, I saw Vaccaro as a multi-dimensional safety with expansive skills and no physical shortcomings that would limit new defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin.
19. New York Giants: Ezekiel "Ziggy" Ansah of BYU. For many observers, he’s a top-five player in this draft. They see the natural athleticism, the size/speed combination and the rare arm length. He looks like an intuitively project "big-time player." That may happen. By means of comparison, Ansah did not show the kind of pass rush skills that Jason Pierre-Paul displayed at South Florida, and Pierre-Paul was seen as exceedingly raw. Ansah is not close to being a finished product, but he competed on every play, and he showed the ability to maneuver his body in almost any position. His size, body type and movement profile best at DE, but I can easily see him aligned inside at DT in sub-package situations. Ansah is a fascinating prospect who needs to be taught much as a pass rusher, so there’s a significant leap of faith, but the movement and motor are there.
20: Chicago Bears: I’m selecting D.J. Fluker, the mammoth right tackle from Alabama. Fluker impressed more and more every time I evaluated him. I looked at a lot of Alabama games, and I must admit I initially thought Fluker was best suited to move inside to OG. And by the way, I believe strongly he would be an All-Pro OG, right from the start. The more I watched, the more I felt he could develop into a very good NFL RT. I saw a powerful and imposing player whose run blocking was outstanding. I loved the way he kept his feet moving on contact, sustaining blocks. Fluker is a work in progress in pass protection. At times he can be a little slow out of his stance, and choppy in his pass set. Those are concerns that need to be addressed with hard coaching. They will be with Marc Trestman and his staff. And keep in mind that Trestman’s passing game features shorter drops, with the ball coming out quicker. The bottom line, however, is Fluker’s overall size/movement package is hard to find.
21: Cincinnati Bengals: Here’s where one of my favorite players in the draft comes off the board. It’s safety Jonathan Cyprien of Florida International. I loved this kid on film. The first thing I noticed was his size and muscle definition. His dimensions are similar to Vaccaro’s, but Cyprien looks bigger and more defined. What really stood out was he played the game fast, with velocity, passion and tenacity. There were times when he was over-aggressive and reckless, although overall he played with an efficient mix of ferocity and control. Given his height – over 6-foot – and his physique, he exhibited surprising athleticism, with excellent change of direction and closing speed. As a deep defender, Cyprien showed a smooth back pedal, with the ability to plant and drive with burst and speed. His range as a single high safety, with his size and stride length, was outstanding. He made an interception against Louisville that was as good as any I have seen this offseason breaking down college tape.
22. St. Louis Rams: I’m selecting defensive tackle Sylvester Williams from North Carolina, another player whose game impressed the more I watched. This is a draft with some very athletic defensive tackles, and Williams fits that profile. What I really liked was he improved significantly as the season progressed. Early in the fall, he did not always play to his athleticism. He did later in the season. Williams showed excellent initial quickness with the balance, body control and closing burst to finish. He showed quick and active hands to both strike and swim. He played multiple positions along the Tar Heels' defensive front, so he brings both position and scheme versatility. I see him best as a one gap penetrator, but he can be equally as effective as a two gap DT. Think about a DL with Williams and Michael Brockers at DT, and Chris Long and Robert Quinn at DE. Not bad.
23. Minnesota Vikings: This is where the offensive player that intrigues me the most comes off the board. That’s Justin Hunter, the Tennessee receiver. Hunter has a very similar body type to AJ Green: long, lithe and sinewy. Relax, I am not saying he’s Green at this point. But Hunter is the most explosive outside receiver in this draft class with his size/speed combination. He’s 6-foot-4, and there are not many with his height, length and movement. He showed the kind of vertical acceleration that impacts games. With free access, he ate up ground in a heartbeat, lifting the top off the coverage. The concern as he transitions is his inconsistent hands. He must catch the ball more consistently. But no WR has Hunter’s mix of size, fluidity, speed and explosion.
24. Indianapolis Colts: My pick is Florida State cornerback Xavier Rhodes. Rhodes played boundary corner in Florida State’s defense. He was predominantly a press man corner; he was competitive and challenging. He had some balance and footwork issues that can be coached and cleaned up. There were times I felt he was a little tight hipped and stiff in his transition when he turned and ran versus vertical routes. Yet, as with Milliner, in an era in which bigger wide receivers are more widespread, Rhodes, at 6-foot-1 1/2 and 210 pounds, brings the size and physicality that’s needed. There’s no question Rhodes needs work in zone coverage awareness and discipline, not having played a lot of it in college. But overall, he has a very intriguing blend of size, length and physicality. He would give the Colts and Chuck Pagano two very good press man corners, teaming with Vontae Davis. You have maximum flexibility defensively when you can line up with two corners that can play man-to-man.
25. Minnesota Vikings: My favorite overall linebacker in this draft is Arthur Brown from Kansas State. He’s not as athletically gifted as Alec Ogletree but at this point he’s a more consistent player. Brown is an active, athletic, movement LB with some quick twitch to his game. He showed excellent agility and change of direction. As a tackler, he was sudden and explosive, with short area burst and striking ability. What I really liked was his ability to fight through blocks, work through traffic and take the most direct path to the ball. He trusted what he saw, showed excellent play recognition and was decisive with his reactions. His overall consistency was such I believe he could step right in from day one and be Minnesota’s starting MLB.
26. Green Bay Packers: My pick is defensive lineman Datone Jones of UCLA. In some ways, Jones reminded me of Richard Seymour when Seymour came out of Georgia in 2001. Seymour was a bigger man at 315 pounds, which of course enhanced his value significantly; it was one of the reasons he was the sixth pick in the draft. Jones is 280 pounds but his overall skill set is somewhat similar. I would describe Jones as a chameleon. By that I mean he played both bigger and smaller than his 280 pounds. He showed outstanding short area quickness with both explosion and power. He was very effective as a gap penetrator. He was active and disruptive, and strong and powerful. He has great position and scheme versatility, with the attributes to play 3-4 DE, 4-3 DE and 4-3 DT. My sense is he’d be most effective in a one-gap scheme. One final point: I believe he will develop into a better pass rusher in the NFL than he was in college.
27. Houston Texans: Again, this is a clear example of need and talent intersecting. I select receiver Keenan Allen from California. Many see Allen as purely a short to intermediate receiver due to his size (6-foot-2, 206 pounds) and lack of explosive speed. I saw much more than that. He’s a smooth accelerator with deceptive vertical burst. He’s very fluid, quick in-and-out of breaks. He had a wide catching radius, consistently snatching the ball with his hands. He handled press coverage very well, with both quickness and strength. You do not see that very often with college receivers. Something else you don’t see frequently in college, and it’s so critical in the NFL, is the ability to make every route look the same off the line of scrimmage. Allen did that with his compact vertical stem. NFL corners will tell you it’s very difficult to read routes when that’s the case. How about this for a comparison: Reggie Wayne, who was the 30[SUP]th[/SUP] player chosen in the 2001 draft. By the way Wayne was the sixth WR selected that year. Remember the top 5: David Terrell, Koren Robinson, Rod Gardner, Santana Moss and Freddie Mitchell.
28. Denver Broncos: I’m going with defensive end Cornellius "Tank" Carradine from Florida State. I know he’s coming off an ACL injury, but I really liked Carradine on film, more so than his teammate Bjorn Werner. He was a more fluid, flexible athlete than Werner, with a broader skill set and better overall attributes. Carradine possesses size, length, flexibility and excellent movement. He was not a classic bend the edge, get low pass rusher; there are not many of those. If he was, I’d be talking about him as a top ten pick. But he showed the ability to transition from speed to power, and he had the kind of closing burst you look for. What stood out on film was his playing personality; he always pressed to the ball. He’s the most active DE in this draft class. He ran down Florida QB Jeff Driskel after a 31-yard run that was as impressive as any play you’ll see by a DE. There’s no question he has to get stronger, but it’s much easier to do that than make a player more athletic or more competitive.
29. New England Patriots: This is where Tennessee receiver Cordarrelle Patterson comes off my board. He’s a multi-dimensional weapon that can align anywhere in the formation, including the backfield, which he did at Tennessee. He is dynamic with the ball in his hands: shifty, elusive and explosive. He has open field movement ability that you cannot teach. And remember, he’s 6-foot-2 and 216 pounds. My guess is Bill Belichick will figure out a way to utilize him effectively. But don’t lose sight of the fact that Patterson has much work to do as receiver. At this point, he is not as quick and explosive as a route runner as he is with the ball in his hands. He’s more measured and methodical. He has little sense of the pace and tempo of route running, and how to set up and beat corners. But he has the athletic traits you look for; in addition, he showed good hands, and a willingness to make tough catches in the middle of the field.
30. Atlanta Falcons: The Falcons select my fourth-rated corner: Jamar Taylor of Boise State. Taylor was one of the smoothest corners I evaluated, an easy mover with very fluid change of direction and transition skills. He was predominantly the boundary corner at Boise State, and he played significant snaps of both press man, and off coverage man and zone. He showed the ability to mirror in press position, and then flip his hips and turn and run. He was a deceptive accelerator running with vertical routes. What really stood out was his fluidity in off coverage. He may have been the best I watched planting and driving with closing burst and speed. Taylor has a complete skill set to be a very good outside corner, but he also can move inside and play over the slot. As the boundary corner in college, he blitzed on occasion, and he was very good at it, showing the necessary closing speed.
31: San Francisco 49ers: Here’s where another player I very much liked on film comes off my board: defensive tackle Jesse Williams of Alabama. I’ll just start by saying I did not see a large difference between Williams and Star Lotulelei the more I watched each player. Williams aligned at multiple DL positions for the Crimson Tide, including “3 technique”, a position normally associated with athleticism and explosiveness. He played with excellent leverage and strength; he had a powerful lower body. What really jumped off the screen was his movement; again, I will use the word nimble. Williams had incredibly light and athletic feet for a man almost 6-foot-4 and 320-plus pounds. He dominated the LSU offensive line with his outstanding combination of core strength and short-area quickness. There was a lot to like about Williams, and he is nowhere close to being a finished product given his lack of football experience.
32. Baltimore Ravens: The final pick in the first round is Kevin Minter, the LSU linebacker. Minter is the kind of player you like the more you watch him. He’s not a top athlete for the position so he doesn’t immediately stand out with his movement. But he’s very active, very competitive. His play recognition was consistently good, his reactions were decisive, and he always pressed to the ball. Like Arthur Brown, Minter showed the ability to work through the bodies in front of him, and efficiently find the ball. He’s a smooth inside mover with the ability to scrape and flow and make tackles in the run game. And he was deceptive with his overall movement; as I said, he was not an explosive athlete, but he is field fast and showed sideline-to-sideline range. He was also very good in pass coverage. He can run the middle hole in zone, and he can lock up man-to-man, even at times against wide receivers. I saw him run the seam with Arkansas WR Cobi Hamilton, and he was stride-for-stride. Minter is a better player than athlete, and has the look of a Day One starter.
By Greg Cosell | Shutdown Corner – Mon, Apr 22, 2013 10:20 AM EDT
Here’s picks 1-16 in my mock draft, you can see picks 17-32 here. The parameters I presented for those selections still apply. One other point: I don’t place grades on players based on the round in which I believe they should be selected. I project players to the NFL and then look at team needs. If a player I feel transitions well to the NFL fits a given team, then, as far as I’m concerned, that’s a good pick. If you're looking for quarterbacks, you won't find any first-rounders in this mock draft.
1. Kansas City Chiefs: My pick here is Central Michigan OT Eric Fisher. He and Texas A&M's Luke Joeckel have very similar skills, but I like Fisher a little more. The Alex Smith trade was the impetus for this selection. Andy Reid acquired Smith to solidify the quarterback position. Smith is an efficient, system player who does not turn the ball over. The objective was not to lose games because of your quarterback. That’s the Smith factor. It makes little sense to make that trade, structure your offense that way, and then not address your OL, especially when you have Jamal Charles in the backfield.
2. Jacksonville Jaguars: The next best player on the board is Luke Joeckel. And it just so happens to be at a position of serious need for the Jaguars. As of this writing, they do not have a RT. Right now, their quarterbacks are Blaine Gabbert and Chad Henne. Neither can function without a high quality OL. Just like Fisher, the strength of Joeckel’s game is repetitive execution more than elite athleticism and movement. What always stood out watching Joeckel (and Fisher) on tape was he never seemed to be off balance. He was comfortable, composed and economical on every play. Joeckel is a smoother mover than Jake Long when he came out of Michigan as the No. 1 overall pick, but not as naturally fluid as Ryan Clady, who was the 12[SUP]th[/SUP] pick in the same 2008 draft.
3. Oakland Raiders: This selection is easy. It’s defensive tackle Shariff Floyd of Florida, one of my favorite players to evaluate on tape. Forget about the fact the Raiders do not have a starting quality DT on their present roster. Floyd is worthy under any circumstances. You talk to outstanding defensive tackles like Warren Sapp, and they talk about hips. Floyd has very loose hips. He’s lively and limber, with great balance and body control. He played both through and around blocks. He’s what a tackle-for-loss DT, disruptive with an explosive closing burst. He transitions best as a classic 3-technique in a four-man line, but he would be equally effective as a DE in 1-gap 3-4 front.
4. Philadelphia Eagles: This is where the most intriguing defensive player comes off the board. That’s Oregon DE/OLB Dion Jordan. I was fortunate to be on the field at the scouting combine, and to watch this 6-foot-6, 250-pounder move was a revelation. He looked like a wide receiver. On film, he was naturally athletic, very smooth and fluid, and surprisingly explosive given his length. At Oregon this past season, he primarily played in space, which he did exceptionally well. I had to study a lot of games to get a feel for his pass rush skills. They were impressive, and I believe he will become a very good edge rusher in the NFL. He showed the ability to get low and bend the edge with the needed flexibility to succeed against quality NFL offensive tackles. There’s much to like about Jordan, and he’s just scratching the surface. Want a comparison? How about Jason Taylor.
5. Detroit Lions: What is a greater position of need for the Lions – OT or CB? Which of those two positions has the higher rated player? For me, it’s OT. My pick is Oklahoma LT Lane Johnson, who is still a work in progress due to his lack of experience at the position, but he improved steadily in 2012. He has all the traits you look for in an NFL LT: he’s light on his feet, agile, a natural knee-bender, has long arms, and he’s competitive. He plays LT, Riley Reiff is your RT, and you are set at the position for years. Your franchise quarterback, Matthew Stafford, will be well protected.
6. Cleveland Browns: I’m selecting Notre Dame TE Tyler Eifert. Conventional wisdom says TE is not a position you take in the top ten. Two tight ends have been taken in the top ten since 2004, both at No. 6: Kellen Winslow (2004) and Vernon Davis (2006). I have written extensively about the increased value of the “Joker” TE in today’s NFL, and have talked to many defensive coordinators who have told me that matching up to “12” personnel (one back, two tight ends, and two wide receivers) is a problem. Eifert is the most athletic TE in this draft class. I saw him split outside the numbers many times, and beat corners on vertical routes. Two things to keep in mind: Rob Chudzinski was the offensive coordinator in Cleveland in 2007 when Winslow had 82 catches for 1,106 yards (the Browns won the AFC North that season), and new OC Norv Turner is a master at utilizing the TE, most recently Antonio Gates, but you can go all the way back to Jay Novacek with the Cowboys in the early 1990s.
7. Arizona Cardinals: West Virginia WR Tavon Austin. Most know at this point how I feel about Austin. Here’s how I described him in a previous column:
He aligned all over the formation, including in the backfield, and possesses an extraordinary combination of flash quickness, lateral explosion, stop and start acceleration and top end speed. He’s a live wire with the ball in his hands: shifty, elusive and unpredictable, with the ability to turn routine plays into impact, game changing masterpieces.
Now think about new head coach Bruce Arians. Last year in Indianapolis, he had rookie T.Y. Hilton, at 5-foot-9 and 183 pounds. Hilton played 61 percent of the Colts' snaps, had 861 receiving yards and seven touchdowns. In addition, he averaged almost 12 yards per punt return, with another touchdown. Prior to that with the Steelers, Arians featured 5-foot-10, 186-pound Antonio Brown. In 2011, Arians' last year in Pittsburgh, Brown had 69 catches for 1,108 yards. Austin is more versatile, and more explosive than both Brown and Hilton.
8. Buffalo Bills: LSU DE/OLB Barkevious Mingo makes perfect sense for the Bills. They do not have a pass rusher at linebacker, and new defensive coordinator Mike Pettine, formerly of the Jets, feature scheme multiplicity with athletic players who can align in different spots. Mingo flashed explosive traits and the kind of closing speed you cannot teach. He’s a work in progress since he did not show elite body flexibility, with the ability to bend the edge. He needs an NFL weight room. But you put on the Clemson tape, and you see the burst and speed that can impact games.
9. New York Jets: The pick here is my No. 1 guard in the draft, North Carolina's Jonathan Cooper. As I mentioned with Floyd, Cooper was also one of my favorite players to evaluate. He was as athletic as any guard I can remember studying. He had remarkably light feet for a 310-pound man, with such ease of movement. As a puller in the run game, he had extraordinary balance and body control. His best trait is his tenacious competitiveness, with a nasty streak. He looked to initiate contact whenever possible. He is the kind of player who will be a tempo setter for an offensive line. Everybody is focusing on defense with the Jets, but their offense is worse than poor, and in my mock, Cooper is the best player available.
10. Tennessee Titans: The next best offensive guard on the board is Alabama's Chance Warmack. The Titans are trying to manage and manipulate an erratic Jake Locker with a consistent running game. That’s why they signed Shonn Greene to complement Chris Johnson, and underrated OG Andy Levitre. Warmack is an outstanding prospect, with excellent core strength and a powerful lower body. Overall, he showed a desirable combination of size, strength and athleticism. What stood out for a man with his squatty build was his movement in space, his ability to strike a moving target with balance and body control. In addition, he had unyielding anchor strength in pass protection. Warmack and Cooper: two of the best OG prospects we have seen in recent years.
11. San Diego Chargers: The best combination of size, speed and athleticism at linebacker in this draft is Georgia's Alec Ogletree. He has no athletic limitations -- he’s field-fast with sideline-to-sideline range and speed. He consistently showed explosive traits both as a run defender and in pass coverage. The concern is play recognition, or what most refer to as instincts. He needs to become quicker and more decisive with his reactions, especially in the run game. There were times he was too hesitant. But the bottom line is Ogletree is long and athletic with outstanding movement, a classic run-and-chase linebacker in a game increasingly defined by the passing game.
12. Miami Dolphins: Here’s where my top corner comes of the board. That would be D.J. Hayden of Houston. He’s the most physically gifted corner in this draft class. As I wrote in a recent column, Hayden has the most complete and impressive combination of sudden movement, change of direction, the ability to play both press man and off coverage zone, a challenging and competitive playing temperament, and as an added dimension, his willingness to support in the run game with aggression. No corner has a more fluid and compact backpedal, with balance, body control and the quickest feet of any prospect in the draft.
13. New York Jets: My pick is Georgia OLB Jarvis Jones, who is the most ready of all the potential 3-4 outside linebackers in this draft. Ignore the 40-yard dash time. Put on the tape. Jones is a fluid athlete with sudden movement and quick change of direction. He showed body flexibility as a pass rusher, with excellent closing speed. I also liked his ability to transition from speed to power as a pass rusher. He got underneath the pads of bigger OL, and drove them back into the quarterback. He reminded me of Terrell Suggs, another player who ran a supposedly slow 40 when he came out of Arizona State. Remember, Rex Ryan was in Baltimore for the first six years of Suggs’ career.
14. Carolina Panthers: Again, you have a team with a glaring need at a specific position, and a terrific prospect who can fill the void. Missouri defensive tackle Sheldon Richardson, along with Sharrif Floyd, is one of the two most athletic interior defensive linemen in this draft. What I saw when I watched his tape was initial quickness, active and light feet, strong and at times violent hands, and outstanding overall athleticism. There was a sudden and explosive element to his game; he was quick in everything he did. And I loved his effort and competitiveness. He made many plays in pursuit, showing the kind of range you don’t normally see from defensive tackles. Like Floyd, he transitions best to the NFL as a one gap “3 technique” with dominant traits, and the potential to be a disruptive penetrator and double digit sacker.
15. New Orleans Saints: My pick here is Utah defensive tackle Star Lotulelei. Lotulelei, based on overall skills, could have easily been selected higher in my mock. He has an impressive combination of size, strength, athleticism and competitiveness. He has light feet, ease of movement, strong hands. There were times I conjured up the word nimble to describe Star’s movement. He isn't explosive in the same manner as Shariff Floyd or Sheldon Richardson, but Lotulelei was stronger with the ability to shoot his hands with power. He’s not a true inside pass rusher, but he has the attributes to develop into an effective rusher due to his athleticism and strength. In an ideal Rob Ryan defense, which places a premium on position and scheme versatility, Lotulelei is a perfect fit.
16. St. Louis Rams: Who will run the ball for the Rams? How about Alabama running back Eddie Lacy? St. Louis can't play effective offense without a consistent running game. I don’t do discussions of “value.” Those philosophical conversations don’t have any meaning for coaches in the middle of the season when they are trying to win games. There are three backs in this draft who are foundation/feature backs: Eddie Lacy, Le’veon Bell and possibly Montee Ball. Lacy is easily the best of the three, and without question, one of the 20 best players in this draft. He’s my pick for the Rams. He’s a decisive and powerful downhill runner with deceptively quick feet and short area burst. He can move the chains consistently and can be effective in confined space. The only question with Lacy: Does he have the mentality to be a foundation back? He did not truly fill that role for Alabama. There’s no question, however, he has the physical attributes. By the way, I’d rather have Lacy and DJ Swearinger than Kenny Vaccaro and Bell.
Here’s Part One of my mock draft: picks 1-16. A little explanation is in order before I begin. I chose players based on my film study and evaluations, and then factored in my sense of team needs. I have no idea what different teams' draft boards look like, nor will I speculate what they might be. I didn’t do a study of each organization, and how they have drafted in previous years. I didn’t analyze general managers, personnel directors and coaches to ascertain a profile or template that speaks to their draft patterns.
I’m certain there will be significant discrepancies between what you have seen from many analysts and my mock draft. The point of my mock is not to be right, i.e., to predict which players are selected by particular teams. My main objective is to further discuss the players I have evaluated highly by placing them in a draft format. It’s simple as that. So please, don’t look at my mock and reflexively say, that won’t happen. You know that, I know that, but that misses the point.
One other caveat: I am disregarding documented off-field transgressions, character concerns, potential medical problems that might impact draft position, anything that is not a function of on-field play. I understand that teams significantly factor those into the equation, but again each team weighs those differently, and I am not in the speculation or guesswork business. So I am basing my player evaluations solely on the tape. That’s what I do. I watch tape, and I love it.
Here's picks 17 through 32; you can read picks 1-16 here.
17. Pittsburgh Steelers: The pick is Alabama cornerback Dee Milliner, my No. 2 rated corner. Milliner is a comfortable press man corner with smooth balance and body control. In Alabama’s defense, he often aligned to the boundary, or the short side of the field. He was very aggressive as a run defender, and he was an aggressive blitzer. He reminded me of Stephon Gilmore coming out of South Carolina a year ago. In an era in which wide receivers are trending bigger, the 6-foot, 201 pound Milliner provides the size that’s increasingly demanded. Remember, the Steelers play Cincinnati, Baltimore and Cleveland each twice. They must match up to bigger receivers with AJ Green, Torrey Smith and Josh Gordon. Milliner can do that. He’s both short-area quick, with excellent change of direction and transition, and fast enough to run vertically. And in Nick Saban and Kirby Smart’s Crimson Tide defense, he has extensive experience with multiple coverage concepts.
18. Dallas Cowboys: Do the Cowboys have a healthy starting safety on their roster? Here’s where extreme need intersects with talent, and an outstanding prospect: Safety Kenny Vaccaro of Texas. Vaccaro is 6-foot, 215 pounds. That’s very good size for the position. He’s a smooth athlete with excellent movement skills. Not only did he display the ability to play man-to-man versus wide receivers, he also was utilized as a deep safety, both in single high coverage and two deep shells. In those situations, he was both fluid and active in coverage, and aggressive playing downhill in the run game. He always pressed to the ball, and demonstrated sideline-to-sideline range with outstanding play speed and a reckless attitude. He showed explosion as a tackler with natural pop. Overall, I saw Vaccaro as a multi-dimensional safety with expansive skills and no physical shortcomings that would limit new defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin.
19. New York Giants: Ezekiel "Ziggy" Ansah of BYU. For many observers, he’s a top-five player in this draft. They see the natural athleticism, the size/speed combination and the rare arm length. He looks like an intuitively project "big-time player." That may happen. By means of comparison, Ansah did not show the kind of pass rush skills that Jason Pierre-Paul displayed at South Florida, and Pierre-Paul was seen as exceedingly raw. Ansah is not close to being a finished product, but he competed on every play, and he showed the ability to maneuver his body in almost any position. His size, body type and movement profile best at DE, but I can easily see him aligned inside at DT in sub-package situations. Ansah is a fascinating prospect who needs to be taught much as a pass rusher, so there’s a significant leap of faith, but the movement and motor are there.
20: Chicago Bears: I’m selecting D.J. Fluker, the mammoth right tackle from Alabama. Fluker impressed more and more every time I evaluated him. I looked at a lot of Alabama games, and I must admit I initially thought Fluker was best suited to move inside to OG. And by the way, I believe strongly he would be an All-Pro OG, right from the start. The more I watched, the more I felt he could develop into a very good NFL RT. I saw a powerful and imposing player whose run blocking was outstanding. I loved the way he kept his feet moving on contact, sustaining blocks. Fluker is a work in progress in pass protection. At times he can be a little slow out of his stance, and choppy in his pass set. Those are concerns that need to be addressed with hard coaching. They will be with Marc Trestman and his staff. And keep in mind that Trestman’s passing game features shorter drops, with the ball coming out quicker. The bottom line, however, is Fluker’s overall size/movement package is hard to find.
21: Cincinnati Bengals: Here’s where one of my favorite players in the draft comes off the board. It’s safety Jonathan Cyprien of Florida International. I loved this kid on film. The first thing I noticed was his size and muscle definition. His dimensions are similar to Vaccaro’s, but Cyprien looks bigger and more defined. What really stood out was he played the game fast, with velocity, passion and tenacity. There were times when he was over-aggressive and reckless, although overall he played with an efficient mix of ferocity and control. Given his height – over 6-foot – and his physique, he exhibited surprising athleticism, with excellent change of direction and closing speed. As a deep defender, Cyprien showed a smooth back pedal, with the ability to plant and drive with burst and speed. His range as a single high safety, with his size and stride length, was outstanding. He made an interception against Louisville that was as good as any I have seen this offseason breaking down college tape.
22. St. Louis Rams: I’m selecting defensive tackle Sylvester Williams from North Carolina, another player whose game impressed the more I watched. This is a draft with some very athletic defensive tackles, and Williams fits that profile. What I really liked was he improved significantly as the season progressed. Early in the fall, he did not always play to his athleticism. He did later in the season. Williams showed excellent initial quickness with the balance, body control and closing burst to finish. He showed quick and active hands to both strike and swim. He played multiple positions along the Tar Heels' defensive front, so he brings both position and scheme versatility. I see him best as a one gap penetrator, but he can be equally as effective as a two gap DT. Think about a DL with Williams and Michael Brockers at DT, and Chris Long and Robert Quinn at DE. Not bad.
23. Minnesota Vikings: This is where the offensive player that intrigues me the most comes off the board. That’s Justin Hunter, the Tennessee receiver. Hunter has a very similar body type to AJ Green: long, lithe and sinewy. Relax, I am not saying he’s Green at this point. But Hunter is the most explosive outside receiver in this draft class with his size/speed combination. He’s 6-foot-4, and there are not many with his height, length and movement. He showed the kind of vertical acceleration that impacts games. With free access, he ate up ground in a heartbeat, lifting the top off the coverage. The concern as he transitions is his inconsistent hands. He must catch the ball more consistently. But no WR has Hunter’s mix of size, fluidity, speed and explosion.
24. Indianapolis Colts: My pick is Florida State cornerback Xavier Rhodes. Rhodes played boundary corner in Florida State’s defense. He was predominantly a press man corner; he was competitive and challenging. He had some balance and footwork issues that can be coached and cleaned up. There were times I felt he was a little tight hipped and stiff in his transition when he turned and ran versus vertical routes. Yet, as with Milliner, in an era in which bigger wide receivers are more widespread, Rhodes, at 6-foot-1 1/2 and 210 pounds, brings the size and physicality that’s needed. There’s no question Rhodes needs work in zone coverage awareness and discipline, not having played a lot of it in college. But overall, he has a very intriguing blend of size, length and physicality. He would give the Colts and Chuck Pagano two very good press man corners, teaming with Vontae Davis. You have maximum flexibility defensively when you can line up with two corners that can play man-to-man.
25. Minnesota Vikings: My favorite overall linebacker in this draft is Arthur Brown from Kansas State. He’s not as athletically gifted as Alec Ogletree but at this point he’s a more consistent player. Brown is an active, athletic, movement LB with some quick twitch to his game. He showed excellent agility and change of direction. As a tackler, he was sudden and explosive, with short area burst and striking ability. What I really liked was his ability to fight through blocks, work through traffic and take the most direct path to the ball. He trusted what he saw, showed excellent play recognition and was decisive with his reactions. His overall consistency was such I believe he could step right in from day one and be Minnesota’s starting MLB.
26. Green Bay Packers: My pick is defensive lineman Datone Jones of UCLA. In some ways, Jones reminded me of Richard Seymour when Seymour came out of Georgia in 2001. Seymour was a bigger man at 315 pounds, which of course enhanced his value significantly; it was one of the reasons he was the sixth pick in the draft. Jones is 280 pounds but his overall skill set is somewhat similar. I would describe Jones as a chameleon. By that I mean he played both bigger and smaller than his 280 pounds. He showed outstanding short area quickness with both explosion and power. He was very effective as a gap penetrator. He was active and disruptive, and strong and powerful. He has great position and scheme versatility, with the attributes to play 3-4 DE, 4-3 DE and 4-3 DT. My sense is he’d be most effective in a one-gap scheme. One final point: I believe he will develop into a better pass rusher in the NFL than he was in college.
27. Houston Texans: Again, this is a clear example of need and talent intersecting. I select receiver Keenan Allen from California. Many see Allen as purely a short to intermediate receiver due to his size (6-foot-2, 206 pounds) and lack of explosive speed. I saw much more than that. He’s a smooth accelerator with deceptive vertical burst. He’s very fluid, quick in-and-out of breaks. He had a wide catching radius, consistently snatching the ball with his hands. He handled press coverage very well, with both quickness and strength. You do not see that very often with college receivers. Something else you don’t see frequently in college, and it’s so critical in the NFL, is the ability to make every route look the same off the line of scrimmage. Allen did that with his compact vertical stem. NFL corners will tell you it’s very difficult to read routes when that’s the case. How about this for a comparison: Reggie Wayne, who was the 30[SUP]th[/SUP] player chosen in the 2001 draft. By the way Wayne was the sixth WR selected that year. Remember the top 5: David Terrell, Koren Robinson, Rod Gardner, Santana Moss and Freddie Mitchell.
28. Denver Broncos: I’m going with defensive end Cornellius "Tank" Carradine from Florida State. I know he’s coming off an ACL injury, but I really liked Carradine on film, more so than his teammate Bjorn Werner. He was a more fluid, flexible athlete than Werner, with a broader skill set and better overall attributes. Carradine possesses size, length, flexibility and excellent movement. He was not a classic bend the edge, get low pass rusher; there are not many of those. If he was, I’d be talking about him as a top ten pick. But he showed the ability to transition from speed to power, and he had the kind of closing burst you look for. What stood out on film was his playing personality; he always pressed to the ball. He’s the most active DE in this draft class. He ran down Florida QB Jeff Driskel after a 31-yard run that was as impressive as any play you’ll see by a DE. There’s no question he has to get stronger, but it’s much easier to do that than make a player more athletic or more competitive.
29. New England Patriots: This is where Tennessee receiver Cordarrelle Patterson comes off my board. He’s a multi-dimensional weapon that can align anywhere in the formation, including the backfield, which he did at Tennessee. He is dynamic with the ball in his hands: shifty, elusive and explosive. He has open field movement ability that you cannot teach. And remember, he’s 6-foot-2 and 216 pounds. My guess is Bill Belichick will figure out a way to utilize him effectively. But don’t lose sight of the fact that Patterson has much work to do as receiver. At this point, he is not as quick and explosive as a route runner as he is with the ball in his hands. He’s more measured and methodical. He has little sense of the pace and tempo of route running, and how to set up and beat corners. But he has the athletic traits you look for; in addition, he showed good hands, and a willingness to make tough catches in the middle of the field.
30. Atlanta Falcons: The Falcons select my fourth-rated corner: Jamar Taylor of Boise State. Taylor was one of the smoothest corners I evaluated, an easy mover with very fluid change of direction and transition skills. He was predominantly the boundary corner at Boise State, and he played significant snaps of both press man, and off coverage man and zone. He showed the ability to mirror in press position, and then flip his hips and turn and run. He was a deceptive accelerator running with vertical routes. What really stood out was his fluidity in off coverage. He may have been the best I watched planting and driving with closing burst and speed. Taylor has a complete skill set to be a very good outside corner, but he also can move inside and play over the slot. As the boundary corner in college, he blitzed on occasion, and he was very good at it, showing the necessary closing speed.
31: San Francisco 49ers: Here’s where another player I very much liked on film comes off my board: defensive tackle Jesse Williams of Alabama. I’ll just start by saying I did not see a large difference between Williams and Star Lotulelei the more I watched each player. Williams aligned at multiple DL positions for the Crimson Tide, including “3 technique”, a position normally associated with athleticism and explosiveness. He played with excellent leverage and strength; he had a powerful lower body. What really jumped off the screen was his movement; again, I will use the word nimble. Williams had incredibly light and athletic feet for a man almost 6-foot-4 and 320-plus pounds. He dominated the LSU offensive line with his outstanding combination of core strength and short-area quickness. There was a lot to like about Williams, and he is nowhere close to being a finished product given his lack of football experience.
32. Baltimore Ravens: The final pick in the first round is Kevin Minter, the LSU linebacker. Minter is the kind of player you like the more you watch him. He’s not a top athlete for the position so he doesn’t immediately stand out with his movement. But he’s very active, very competitive. His play recognition was consistently good, his reactions were decisive, and he always pressed to the ball. Like Arthur Brown, Minter showed the ability to work through the bodies in front of him, and efficiently find the ball. He’s a smooth inside mover with the ability to scrape and flow and make tackles in the run game. And he was deceptive with his overall movement; as I said, he was not an explosive athlete, but he is field fast and showed sideline-to-sideline range. He was also very good in pass coverage. He can run the middle hole in zone, and he can lock up man-to-man, even at times against wide receivers. I saw him run the seam with Arkansas WR Cobi Hamilton, and he was stride-for-stride. Minter is a better player than athlete, and has the look of a Day One starter.
