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Predicting each 2013 draft pick for the Cowboys
By Jonathan Bales
jonathan@thedctimes.com
10:00 am on April 16, 2013 |
Jonathan Bales is a special contributor to SportsDayDFW.com. He’s the founder of The DC Times and writes for DallasCowboys.com and the New York Times. He’s also the author of Fantasy Football for Smart People. He can be reached at jonathan@thedctimes.com.
You can follow him @TheCowboysTimes.
Last week, I published my first Cowboys-only mock draft for the year. I had the ‘Boys selecting offensive linemen with their first two picks. As it stands right now, I think there’s about a 50/50 chance that one of the draft’s two elite guards—Jonathan Cooper and Chance Warmack—fall to Dallas at No. 18. If it doesn’t happen, the team’s draft path could change wildly.
In this mock draft, I’m going to examine which direction the Cowboys might head if all of the elite offensive linemen are off of the board. For the record, I’m not placing Alabama’s D.J. Fluker in that ‘elite’ group, but I’ll assume the Cowboys aren’t interested in him with the 18th pick.
2013 Cowboys-Only Mock Draft, Version 2.0
Round 1: Sheldon Richardson, DT, Missouri
The most popular choice for the Cowboys here is probably Texas safety Kenny Vaccaro, but there’s such great depth at safety in the middle rounds that the team might go a different direction, as they should. You could say the same about defensive tackle, although the “depth” doesn’t extend as far as for safety and a lot of the tackles aren’t necessarily great fits for the Cowboys’ scheme. Don’t forget that the Cowboys also have a few young pieces at safety, but their starting defensive tackles don’t have too much left in the tank.
Here’s what I had to say about Richardson in my scouting report:
With his skill set, Richardson will be a one-gap player in the NFL. He’s at his best when he can penetrate and use his quickness to make plays. I’ve seen reports that he’s a very strong player but, considering his size, I don’t think that’s accurate. Richardson can play powerfully when he shoots gaps and uses his speed to knock defenders into the backfield, but as it stands right now, he won’t consistently hold up at the point, i.e. he’s not a two-gap player who can stand his ground and shed blockers.
The good news is that Richardson could easily add some bulk, if necessary. I personally think he should stay below 300 pounds to maintain his elite quickness, but he could get to 305 or 310 pounds and still be an explosive player on the inside. As you’d expect, Richardson is phenomenal in pursuit, scraping down the line-of-scrimmage like a big linebacker.
I have Richardson ranked No. 12 overall on my board.
Round 2: Kyle Long, G, Oregon
After missing out on an offensive lineman in the first, the Cowboys could come back with a player capable of playing both guard and tackle in Kyle Long. He fits the Cowboys’ new zone concepts:
Long is an extremely athletic lineman—the best athlete in the family, according to his father—who excels in space. He can pull with ease and looks natural when asked to get to the second level. Long possesses elite balance and flexibility; he really looks like a big linebacker moving around. Due to Oregon’s quick-hitting scheme, Long didn’t have to hold his blocks long. He frequently comes off of his defender early, and that’s something he’ll need to change at the next level.
In the passing game, Long can mirror well from the interior and he typically maintains a solid base. At 6-6, 313 pounds, Long has the frame to move outside, but he’ll need some practice there before he’s thrown into the mix. He certainly has the quickness and athleticism to play offensive tackle, but he’s incredibly raw at this point. Long is probably best-suited for a zone-blocking scheme. He doesn’t dominate defenders at the point-of-attack, and when Long isn’t asked to move laterally or explode to the second level, he can struggle.
Long is a high-upside pick, but one whose floor probably isn’t too low.
Round 3: David Bakhtiari, OT, Colorado
Bakhtiari is another player capable of playing different positions on the line. With Long and Bakhtiari, the Cowboys would probably be looking at their starting right guard and right tackle, although the two prospects could both play either position.
Bakhtiari is a “short” offensive tackle, but he also has very long 34-inch arms. With such length, his height really shouldn’t be a concern; actually, it could help with leverage, especially in short-yardage situations. I’m certain Bakhtiari will fall too far because of a trait that won’t even hurt him in the NFL.
On tape, Bakhtiari shows quickness and good overall athleticism. He can get to the second level, and he uses his explosiveness to even play with power off of the line. Bakhtiari actually plays well in short-yardage situation because of his quickness and leverage, which might surprise some people at his size.
I have Bakhtiari rated in my top 40, meaning he’d be a steal in the third round.
Round 4: Michael Ford, RB, LSU
I’ve said numerous times that it’s just about certain that the Cowboys will draft a running back this year. It will probably happen in the middle rounds. I had the team selecting Oklahoma State’s Joseph Randle in the third round of my last mock draft, but he probably won’t be on the board in the fourth. Fans could be hoping for Marcus Lattimore if he’s still on the board here, but I think the ‘Boys want someone who they know can contribute immediately.
Ford might not be the sexy pick, but he could be the right one. At 210 pounds with sub-4.5 speed, Ford is probably undervalued.
On film, Ford appears to be a little hesitant with the ball in his hands. He doesn’t display great lateral agility, which is odd since his 4.25 short shuttle and 6.87 three-cone drill were both superior to UCLA’s Johnathan Franklin. That could actually be a good thing for the team that drafts Ford, however, because it’s going to cause him to fall. Scouts talk all the time about guys “playing fast,” but most players who play fast also test fast, and vice versa. Ford doesn’t initially appear to “play fast,” but he also doesn’t get caught from behind and he has the explosiveness to burst through running lanes. Should we really penalize a player because he doesn’t look as fast he we know he is?
The biggest piece of evidence that Ford can play in the NFL is that he’s done it at a high level in the SEC. This isn’t an athlete who opened eyes with his workouts but doesn’t have a track record of success. Ford never totaled less than 5.4 yards-per-carry in any season at LSU.
Round 5: Josh Boyce, WR, TCU
Like I mentioned in my last mock draft, I think the odds of the Cowboys drafting a wide receiver are higher than most people believe. The ‘Boys need a big, physical receiver, but they also apparently like Boyce quite a bit.
One reason we haven’t seen a ton of production from Boyce—at least not what we’d expect from a high draft pick—is that he’s just 5-11, 204 pounds. If you recall, I showed that there’s a very strong relationship between height and success for NFL wide receivers. Short, quick receivers can help to move offenses up the field, but they really have a difficult time in the red zone.
On tape, Boyce lines up all over the field, but he’ll likely be limited primarily to the slot in the NFL. He has good hands and appears willing to block in the running game.
Round 6: Cody Davis, S, Texas Tech
An underrated athlete, Davis ran a 4.41 40-yard dash at 6-2, 203 pounds. He also recorded a 41.5-inch vertical and 10-3 broad jump. Davis is the exact type of high-upside player the Cowboys have targeted in the mid and late-rounds in recent drafts.
-----------------
Not a fan.
Okay with Richardson but it just got worse from there.
jonathan@thedctimes.com
10:00 am on April 16, 2013 |
Jonathan Bales is a special contributor to SportsDayDFW.com. He’s the founder of The DC Times and writes for DallasCowboys.com and the New York Times. He’s also the author of Fantasy Football for Smart People. He can be reached at jonathan@thedctimes.com.
You can follow him @TheCowboysTimes.
Last week, I published my first Cowboys-only mock draft for the year. I had the ‘Boys selecting offensive linemen with their first two picks. As it stands right now, I think there’s about a 50/50 chance that one of the draft’s two elite guards—Jonathan Cooper and Chance Warmack—fall to Dallas at No. 18. If it doesn’t happen, the team’s draft path could change wildly.
In this mock draft, I’m going to examine which direction the Cowboys might head if all of the elite offensive linemen are off of the board. For the record, I’m not placing Alabama’s D.J. Fluker in that ‘elite’ group, but I’ll assume the Cowboys aren’t interested in him with the 18th pick.
2013 Cowboys-Only Mock Draft, Version 2.0
Round 1: Sheldon Richardson, DT, Missouri
The most popular choice for the Cowboys here is probably Texas safety Kenny Vaccaro, but there’s such great depth at safety in the middle rounds that the team might go a different direction, as they should. You could say the same about defensive tackle, although the “depth” doesn’t extend as far as for safety and a lot of the tackles aren’t necessarily great fits for the Cowboys’ scheme. Don’t forget that the Cowboys also have a few young pieces at safety, but their starting defensive tackles don’t have too much left in the tank.
Here’s what I had to say about Richardson in my scouting report:
With his skill set, Richardson will be a one-gap player in the NFL. He’s at his best when he can penetrate and use his quickness to make plays. I’ve seen reports that he’s a very strong player but, considering his size, I don’t think that’s accurate. Richardson can play powerfully when he shoots gaps and uses his speed to knock defenders into the backfield, but as it stands right now, he won’t consistently hold up at the point, i.e. he’s not a two-gap player who can stand his ground and shed blockers.
The good news is that Richardson could easily add some bulk, if necessary. I personally think he should stay below 300 pounds to maintain his elite quickness, but he could get to 305 or 310 pounds and still be an explosive player on the inside. As you’d expect, Richardson is phenomenal in pursuit, scraping down the line-of-scrimmage like a big linebacker.
I have Richardson ranked No. 12 overall on my board.
Round 2: Kyle Long, G, Oregon
After missing out on an offensive lineman in the first, the Cowboys could come back with a player capable of playing both guard and tackle in Kyle Long. He fits the Cowboys’ new zone concepts:
Long is an extremely athletic lineman—the best athlete in the family, according to his father—who excels in space. He can pull with ease and looks natural when asked to get to the second level. Long possesses elite balance and flexibility; he really looks like a big linebacker moving around. Due to Oregon’s quick-hitting scheme, Long didn’t have to hold his blocks long. He frequently comes off of his defender early, and that’s something he’ll need to change at the next level.
In the passing game, Long can mirror well from the interior and he typically maintains a solid base. At 6-6, 313 pounds, Long has the frame to move outside, but he’ll need some practice there before he’s thrown into the mix. He certainly has the quickness and athleticism to play offensive tackle, but he’s incredibly raw at this point. Long is probably best-suited for a zone-blocking scheme. He doesn’t dominate defenders at the point-of-attack, and when Long isn’t asked to move laterally or explode to the second level, he can struggle.
Long is a high-upside pick, but one whose floor probably isn’t too low.
Round 3: David Bakhtiari, OT, Colorado
Bakhtiari is another player capable of playing different positions on the line. With Long and Bakhtiari, the Cowboys would probably be looking at their starting right guard and right tackle, although the two prospects could both play either position.
Bakhtiari is a “short” offensive tackle, but he also has very long 34-inch arms. With such length, his height really shouldn’t be a concern; actually, it could help with leverage, especially in short-yardage situations. I’m certain Bakhtiari will fall too far because of a trait that won’t even hurt him in the NFL.
On tape, Bakhtiari shows quickness and good overall athleticism. He can get to the second level, and he uses his explosiveness to even play with power off of the line. Bakhtiari actually plays well in short-yardage situation because of his quickness and leverage, which might surprise some people at his size.
I have Bakhtiari rated in my top 40, meaning he’d be a steal in the third round.
Round 4: Michael Ford, RB, LSU
I’ve said numerous times that it’s just about certain that the Cowboys will draft a running back this year. It will probably happen in the middle rounds. I had the team selecting Oklahoma State’s Joseph Randle in the third round of my last mock draft, but he probably won’t be on the board in the fourth. Fans could be hoping for Marcus Lattimore if he’s still on the board here, but I think the ‘Boys want someone who they know can contribute immediately.
Ford might not be the sexy pick, but he could be the right one. At 210 pounds with sub-4.5 speed, Ford is probably undervalued.
On film, Ford appears to be a little hesitant with the ball in his hands. He doesn’t display great lateral agility, which is odd since his 4.25 short shuttle and 6.87 three-cone drill were both superior to UCLA’s Johnathan Franklin. That could actually be a good thing for the team that drafts Ford, however, because it’s going to cause him to fall. Scouts talk all the time about guys “playing fast,” but most players who play fast also test fast, and vice versa. Ford doesn’t initially appear to “play fast,” but he also doesn’t get caught from behind and he has the explosiveness to burst through running lanes. Should we really penalize a player because he doesn’t look as fast he we know he is?
The biggest piece of evidence that Ford can play in the NFL is that he’s done it at a high level in the SEC. This isn’t an athlete who opened eyes with his workouts but doesn’t have a track record of success. Ford never totaled less than 5.4 yards-per-carry in any season at LSU.
Round 5: Josh Boyce, WR, TCU
Like I mentioned in my last mock draft, I think the odds of the Cowboys drafting a wide receiver are higher than most people believe. The ‘Boys need a big, physical receiver, but they also apparently like Boyce quite a bit.
One reason we haven’t seen a ton of production from Boyce—at least not what we’d expect from a high draft pick—is that he’s just 5-11, 204 pounds. If you recall, I showed that there’s a very strong relationship between height and success for NFL wide receivers. Short, quick receivers can help to move offenses up the field, but they really have a difficult time in the red zone.
On tape, Boyce lines up all over the field, but he’ll likely be limited primarily to the slot in the NFL. He has good hands and appears willing to block in the running game.
Round 6: Cody Davis, S, Texas Tech
An underrated athlete, Davis ran a 4.41 40-yard dash at 6-2, 203 pounds. He also recorded a 41.5-inch vertical and 10-3 broad jump. Davis is the exact type of high-upside player the Cowboys have targeted in the mid and late-rounds in recent drafts.
-----------------
Not a fan.
Okay with Richardson but it just got worse from there.
